12/08/2009-12/09/2009 Winter Storm

[Robert Dewey]

I thought the storm was going to be in the Midwest by now? From what I'm seeing its not quite out of Colorado yet. I think Chris may be right...we may see the heavier snow shift south. We'll all just have to wait and see though. Let the waiting game begin

It might waver a little bit, but you definitely don't have to worry about snow in Urbana IL.

 

[Chris Heater]

It might waver a little bit, but you definitely don't have to worry about snow in Urbana IL.

I was hoping to hear the opposite of that. It HAS happened before...a sudden shift south less than 4 hours till the storm hits here. I'm hoping thats the case (very unlikely albeit)! I'll be watching this storm until it gets closer to us

 

[Jeff Duda]

Impressive chinook in NM/TX. Gusts being reported over 60 mph and the low stratus deck is rapidly evaporating eastward across TX right now. The main low looks to be forming now in the OK PH.

ADD: blizzard warning now statewide for Iowa.

 

[Chris Carter]

. This would probably make for an interesting live stream, given a helmet cam, etc. Hmmm. Then again, sub-60mph gusts are pretty dang boring.

I would imagine it there is a fine line between a cool shot and just a white blur.

Got back from my appointment at the VA, gotta say the roads in Lincoln are pretty crappy. Drove on I-180 towards the airport at 45mph (faster than most people it seemed, they were probably doing 25mph) I couldn't see no more than 30 feet in front of the car. Thank god im back home, think ill stay here and take some photos and drink some hot chocolate with a temp of 22.

Am I seeing this right? As of 3pm EST, the low is still center over central Colorado? Wasn't is suppose to be in western Kansas by now? Bringing in the colder air back in behind it? In fact the storm is that far behind schedule in coming out of the mountains, my only concern about the snow amounts is the possibility of a dry slot coming up and cutting the snow off before the storm passes by. I have to look at what jshields said, with the fact that the low is still over Colorado, we may see another 10-12" on top of what we already have.

I'm also wondering, what is an accurate way to measure the snow in your area, with the significant blowing and drifting snow?

 

[MatthewCarman]

As most of you probably know the NWS for central Iowa is saying up to 16 inches of snow is possible with winds over 50 MPH, drifts 8-15 feet deep and power outages are also possible. Wind chill values of -10 to -20 below are expected Wensday. Interstates are being shut down due to accidents.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Interstates are being shut down due to accidents.

Where are you seeing that? I'm not seeing it here:

 

[Kenny Drake]

Looks like a fun evening commute for folks in Des Moines this fine evening....
http://www.trafficcameras.com/image...2u4hpXAVOMjbzwmmCknfDL+xc15OwRiCT1qy5BUWqp+QT

 

[josh_4184]

What's really making me uneasy is the HIRESW NMM runs. That model keeps insisting that the thermal profile for areas along and north of a Lansing MI to Pontiac MI actually cool as the heaviest precipitation moves through (down to -3C in places). In fact, it looks like the profile doesn't warm sufficiently for pure rain until after 12z tomorrow; after an inch or better of QPF has fallen.

I'm not sure if this is related to the precipitation intensity and cooling due to melting, or what's going on with that model.

The ARW doesn't exhibit this cooling trend, but it's also a lot deeper - 960-965mb.

I am pretty new to al lof this, I am assuming you are referring to the potential for freezing rain? and a lot of it

 

[James Hammett]

Traffic was temporarily diverted from both I-35 and I-80 at specific points due to accidents. I don't believe they've closed any portion due to road conditions yet, however.

I was out around two hours ago and the roads were already lousy. DMX is calling this an "AN EPIC AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM" - I doubt many people will be venturing out tomorrow with that in mind!

 

[Chris Carter]

Kinda laughing that OAX has the low predicted to be in central MO by 6pm cst, 2.5 hours from now, yet most surface maps I have seen still have low over central CO.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Kinda laughing that OAX has the low predicted to be in central MO by 6pm cst, 2.5 hours from now, yet most surface maps I have seen still have low over central CO.

http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=dsm&endDate=20091208&endTime=-1&duration=0

Looks like it's in eastern Kansas right now.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I am pretty new to al lof this, I am assuming you are referring to the potential for freezing rain? and a lot of it

Actually, it would be in the form of snow / sleet. However, keep in mind that's just one solution out of many forecast models. The consensus is for a rapid change over to rain from S to N across lower MI.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/pmsl.gif

SFC low is rather elongated at the moment but should rapidly be forming over central MO.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Kinda laughing that OAX has the low predicted to be in central MO by 6pm cst, 2.5 hours from now, yet most surface maps I have seen still have low over central CO.

The surface low is already east of Wichita:
http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20090208&endTime=-1&duration=0

The upper low, however, appears to be around Goodland.

 

[Chris Carter]

Recent discussion from OAX, [CONVECTIVE-LOOKING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WERE ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH MORE INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW] Thundersnow?

I saw the upper low rotating around Western KS, just wasn't sure where the surface low was. Would explain why the winds have switched to the NE, but only at 18mph, sure that will change once the low begins to strengthen over MO.

Some reports out of Kansas and Nebraska:
Phillipsburg, KS - 10"
Beloit, KS - 10"
Red Cloud, NE - 10"
Plainville, KS - 10"
Tecumseh, NE - 8"
Wilber, NE - 8"
Beatrice, NE - 8"
Weeping Water, NE - 8"
Council Bluffs, IA - 6"
Auburn, NE - 8"
Omaha, NE - 6.5"
Gretna, NE - 7.7"
Grand Island, NE - 9"
Most of these reports came in between 1 and 4pm CST.