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12/08/2009-12/09/2009 Winter Storm

  • Thread starter Thread starter Michael O'Keeffe
  • Start date Start date
For a sec I thought that jshields mentioned 8-12 feet of snowfall total and not 8-12 foot drifts, lol. I think I need a better pair of glasses. :rolleyes: Highest drifts I ever remember seeing around here are maybe 7-7.5 foot high drifts. Of course I was a kid, so maybe they seemed like 7-7.5 feet tall and were less. During the winter of 1978/1979 we had two major storms within several days of each other have seen pics of snowdrifts of around 10 feet high. I am too young to remember it though.
 
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18z GFS now deeper - <976mb over central MI - at 18z 12/09. SREF members are grouped further NW... I'm still betting on the low tracking from Chicago, IL to Alpena, MI... dropping to 970-972mb. 18z NAM actually looks pretty reasonable to me, especially given that most stronger systems track further NW than NWP suggests.

With that said, 18z NAM BUFKIT is becoming more impressive... showing an extended duration - 12-14hrs - of 40-50knts in the mixing layer, with 5-6hrs of 50-60knts at DTX, which given the widespread conditions should be a good sample for surrounding areas. I expect widespread high-wind warning criteria to be met across a rather widespread area of southern MI, IN, and OH... particularly after 18z 12/09, with storm conditions across Lake MI, southern Lake Huron, western Lake Erie... and perhaps eastern Lake Superior.

NWS APX is calling for upwards of 18 inches, or more, across the Gaylord, MI area. If there's going to be a "winner" for most snow with this event, I'm guessing someone in northern lower MI given the lake effect / lake enhancement attributes.
 
I find it intriguing that the Wichita, KS NWS has a further south track on the storm than other NWS's in the area. They even mention the storm is going further south per water vapor imagery. Something to keep an eye on...this could mess up snowfall amounts for a lot of people. Here is the link to the Wichita, KS NWS. Let me know what you guys think!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/
 
Chris Heater said:
I find it intriguing that the Wichita, KS NWS has a further south track on the storm than other NWS's in the area. They even mention the storm is going further south per water vapor imagery. Something to keep an eye on...this could mess up snowfall amounts for a lot of people. Here is the link to the Wichita, KS NWS. Let me know what you guys think!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/
Click to expand...

Chris, it's possible that the mid level trough and associated energy could dig deeper (further south)... However, that would also mean a further NW track once you get up around Chicago IL, Grand Rapids MI, etc.. Think of it as a sort of "seesaw" effect.
 
Well...that sucks. It's something that will have to be watched. Isn't it possible to it to be further south near me than expected or that not even a possibility? Winter storms really are confusing...
 
Winter weather update - Iowa

A major winter storm will bring very heavy snowfall and winds to much of Iowa starting early Tuesday morning. Snowfall will be light to moderate during the day Tuesday with a few inches of accumulation by nightfall. Very heavy snowfall rates are likely Tuesday night, with many areas experiencing thunder snow and whiteout conditions. The other weather story will be very strong winds, especially late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, when gusts of 50 mph will be possible! Travel will likely become impossible by late afternoon Tuesday. Below are forecasts for specific locations in Iowa.

Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Snow will start at 4 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 10.7 inches.

Iowa City, IA:
Snow will start at 3 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 9.5 inches.

North Linn Co., IA (Paris and Coggon):
Snow will start at 4:30 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 11.2 inches.

Marengo, IA:
Snow will start at 2 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 11.1 inches.

Union, IA:
Snow will start at 1 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 10.8 inches.

Discussion:
Visible loop indicates developing baroclinic leaf over the southwestern US into the Midwest. A 90kt H5 streak is currently rounding the base of a positively-tilted SWRN CONUS trough. A sharp H85 thermal gradient is noted over western TX along with dewpoints of 8-10C south of I-20 in TX and LA. Most of TX, OK, and KS remain socked in ST; another indication of the rich moisture to our south that will be transported N into the storm over time. Light snow has already spread into portions of KS, NEB, and extreme SW IA with a developing band of moderate snowfall along the KS/NEB border. Looking at model initialization and verification, the GEM and UKMET have performed the best, with the NAM and GFS continuing to suffer latent heat feedback issues until most recent run. The GFS and NAM have been trending towards a slightly more northerly track of the H85 low with the latest run, bringing it more into line with the more consistent ECMWF. The consensus takes the H85 low on a track from just N of STJ at 00Z, to just S of DVN at 06Z, and 30 miles W of MKE at 12Z Wed.

The LLJ will strengthen ahead of the system, while transporting aforementioned moisture north towards the area. WAA increases on Tuesday as the system organizes to our west, with strengthening isentropic lift and 2-4g/kg mixing ratios throughout the day. Snow will overspread the state from SW to NE between 06 and 12Z; however forcing will remain weak through 21Z. Light to moderate snow will persist through much of the day until strong Q-G forcing arrives by late afternoon as the SFC low tracks from KS into NRN MO. By Tuesday evening, an impressive deformation zone sets up across eastern IA, with snowfall amounts to 15 inches possible along a 50 mile-wide axis extending from the Quad Cities to Oskaloosa, IA. 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates appear likely. Additionally, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km with elevated CAPE over the E and SE part of IA will support thundersnow and intense banding structures. Cross-sections of forecast EPV and theta-es indicate moderate CSI. The deformation zone will slowly shift east between 06Z and 12Z Wednesday.

All models continue to indicate in excess of 1.0 inch of storm total QPF. Cold air remains entrenched in the storm, with the H85 0C line remaining S of the IA/MO border for the duration of the storm. Snow ratios should range from 10 south of I-80 to 16:1 north of US-20. The upper-system will become increasingly negatively-tilted as a 120kt H5 streak races towards the southern Great Lakes. The SFC low bombs to nearly 975mb as it approaches the Great Lakes area, with a tightening pressure gradient on the backside. H925 winds to 45 kts are forecast at 12Z Wednesday, with a 25-30 mb SFC pressure differential across the state. Forecast soundings indicate a mixed-layer of 100mb deep by 15Z Wed. Formation of gravity waves may result in wind gusts in excess of 50 mph at the surface, with snowdrifts will approaching 6 feet by Wednesday afternoon.

- Bill
10:17 PM CDT, 12/07/09
 
Interesting that ICT is predicting a further south track, the GFS is showing snowfall totals going from near zero to 8" in a 30 mile span just south of the KC metro, and EAX latest AFD is saying it's not likely anything more than flurries will occur from KCI south. Hmm... With this system, 15 miles could be the difference between nothing and a huge roadway mess for the KC metro, even with the bulk of the snow further north.
 
I rarely post, but I'm in Western KS and they've been warning us for days about this massive snowfall we are going to have, and YET its all falling in Central and Eastern KS as of this time right now. It doesn't look like its going to be anywhere close to us either from what I can see. Good grief, they did this same thing at the beginning of the year, freaked people out, schools were closed in anticipation and we got zippo. You'd think they could be a tad more accurate.
 
Bonnie Frank said:
I rarely post, but I'm in Western KS and they've been warning us for days about this massive snowfall we are going to have, and YET its all falling in Central and Eastern KS as of this time right now. It doesn't look like its going to be anywhere close to us either from what I can see. Good grief, they did this same thing at the beginning of the year, freaked people out, schools were closed in anticipation and we got zippo. You'd think they could be a tad more accurate.
Click to expand...

Well the main storm has yet to move out of the rockies, but i agree though, the warm advection snow that Central and Eastern KS is seeing was suppose to develop over Western Kansas, expand and move NE. Instead the snow started in Central KS and began expanding into Southern NE, but the heaviest snows are in Central KS and running into the Northeast corner of KS and into Northwest MO.

Which is verify my thoughts that this heavy band that is predicted with the storm is going to be end being more to the south than what most NWS stations are painting across the Central Plains. I have that feeling that some of the counties on the NW side of the winter storm warnings are going to downgraded to winter weather advisories and the SE portion of it is going to be expanded further South and East to include more of KS, MO and IL.
 
EAX office here in KC already screaming bust tonight.

IF MY SUSPICIONS ARE CORRECT...WE MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ALL BY FAR NW MO/NE KS DURING MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
NEUTRAL HEIGHT ADVECTION AND DRY AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN SNOW GRAINS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

EVEN WHERE
PRECIPITATION RESIDENCE TIME IS LONGEST OVER NW MO...AM NOT SURE
EVEN HERE THAT ONE TO TWO INCHES TONIGHT PLUS THE DEFORMATION SNOWS
WILL YIELD THE 10+ INCH AMOUNTS CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
 
Thanks Chris, I've come to the conclusion that I'm just going to start checking here when they start sending out these warnings. I'm not in far western KS, but in Hays, and currently we don't have a single flake falling. I did recently look at TWC and NOAA out of Dodge City and they are still showing us with 7-12 inches expected by late tomorrow. I'm just not seeing it and I'm by far no where near as knowledgeable as you folks. Oh well, guess it's a day off work since they already cancelled school.
 
Bonnie Frank said:
Thanks Chris, I've come to the conclusion that I'm just going to start checking here when they start sending out these warnings. I'm not in far western KS, but in Hays, and currently we don't have a single flake falling. I did recently look at TWC and NOAA out of Dodge City and they are still showing us with 7-12 inches expected by late tomorrow. I'm just not seeing it and I'm by far no where near as knowledgeable as you folks. Oh well, guess it's a day off work since they already cancelled school.
Click to expand...

I haven't been following the plains situation as some here, but like mentioned the system has still -not- ejected over the plains so not seeing any snowfall right now does not mean a busted forecast just yet. The system has still not taken shape over your area.
 
Model consistency continues to look fantastic. Still looks like the heaviest snow will center from Lamoni to Dubuque to Fond du Lac.
 
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