12/08/2009-12/09/2009 Winter Storm

[Chris Heater]

18Z GFS is already out.

When the next one come out?

 

[Chris Allington]

When the next one come out?

00z is the next run...

 

[Chris Carter]

Don't if you guys pay attention to the HPC, but I'll throw this in here.

8" or more Day 2 and Day 3
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif

12" or more Day 2 and Day 3
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif

 

[Chris Heater]

Sure looks like the models are shifting the storm south now. Good news for me! We'll see how long this lasts

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Hey guys, just found this great website, I am a huge amature weather buff. Learning a lot from this site. Huge winter fan, living in southern Michigan, hoping to get some decent snow to fire up my snowmobile.

Look foward to chating with all of you

Welcome. You will learn a lot from some very experienced people.

Not a whole lot has changed from the going forecast. I am splitting hairs here in UIN as far as snow totals, really hope these new runs take this storm farther south to make the forecast easier.

 

[Chris Heater]

Not a whole lot has changed from the going forecast. I am splitting hairs here in UIN as far as snow totals, really hope these new runs take this storm farther south to make the forecast easier.

Hard forecast to make? The models have begun to push the storm south the last 3 runs i've seen. We'll see what the 00 UTC shows when it comes out

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Hard forecast to make? The models have begun to push the storm south the last 3 runs i've seen. We'll see what the 00 UTC shows when it comes out

If 00z NAM is right you will lose all hope of a good snowfall for you Chris..

Yeah Ryan, I wouldnt be surprised to see the GFS shift a little bit further north..

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

As people have been saying..

The cold air intrusion and the snow with this first low pressure system will determine where this storm ultimately tracks..

This is result of pinpointing where the barcoclinic zone will set up..

 

[stormbuff78]

Hey you guys my Name is Justin Mcginley ignore my stormbuff name that is getting changed to my real name. But i have been a storm spotter for a couple of years in southeast nebraska. As of right now its been snowing since around 4 PM and i would guess that we have about 3-4inches on the ground. I hope to learn from alot of you and to make new friends.

 

[Chris Carter]

00Z NAM takes it north. Chicago will start out with snow and may get a rain/snow mix by the time the low really strength then back to snow on the backside.

00Z GFS is coming out now...

By the way. Welcome to the board Justin.

So far its looks like the GFS has slowed the system down a little bit, or its at least slower than the NAM. Heaviest precip could be from St. Jo west southwest towards Hays, Salina and Great Bend KS. Up to an 1" in precip and with the snow ratios in the area of 10:1 or 15:1. Looks like they could see a lot of the heavy wet snow. Funny how the GFS paints a 6" or more snow swath 200 miles wide, but you know what, its probably right.

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

OK, I'm gonna blow the science out of this one...here's what I can forecast, based on personal experience growing up in Wisconsin and living in Chicago too...

Storm forecast for first significant winter weather event gets all Chicago meteorologists and winter storm enthusiasts very excited!! Plan for MAJOR BLIZZARD and set ALL emergency winter weather plans into action!!!

Storm forecast for first significant winter weather event gets all Milwaukee meteorologists saying storm will hit Chicago, giving Milwaukee just an inch or two.

Storm decides to go north of forecast track and slam Milwaukee and give Chicago just an inch or two.

I will eat my words if this doesn't happen this time around with this storm.

 

[rdale]

Storm forecast for first significant winter weather event gets all Milwaukee meteorologists saying storm will hit Chicago, giving Milwaukee just an inch or two.

NWS Milwaukee is already forecasting 9-14 inches for Milwaukee and much of the rest of SE Wisconsin, so I'm not sure what you are saying here.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Regional GEM already down to 986mb at 48hr. I'm not sure how accurate that model is, and that does seem overdone, however the "stronger" trend continues. I'm still sticking with a further NW track and a stronger system. IMO, Chicago is definitely going to be mostly rain.

Also, 0z NAM is much more conducive to high wind potential over MI... with 50-60knts now within the mixing layer for a solid 6 hours, coinciding with a good pressure rise.

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

NWS Milwaukee is already forecasting 9-14 inches for Milwaukee and much of the rest of SE Wisconsin, so I'm not sure what you are saying here.

I posted my unscientific/anecdotal evidence forecast purely based on past experience. the NWSforecast models seem to contradict it.
So perhaps I'll cover my buns here, and say the other scenario will happen then..just switch the Chicago and Milwaukee lines, and you have the opposing forecast...which would corroborate the Milwaukee NWS one. Either way, I'm right, LOL (and don't take me seriously on this one).

 

[Chris Carter]

Sounds like a repeat of that blizzard a few years back that dropped a foot of snow and 75mph gusts across Nebraska.

Wish i was there to see it, i was on a tropical island...working.