12/08/2009-12/09/2009 Winter Storm

[Chris Carter]

Good idea. 18z GFS reaffirms that thinking... it's pretty consistent with it's 12z run.

18Z GFS looks like it has gona a little further south now. It doesn't take the low into northwest CO and then along the KS/OK border, it takes it a little further south over OKC and into Central MO towards northern Indiana. Bring the snow a little further south.

I haven't seen the Euro yet, but im hearing its gone a little north with its track, in line with the 12Z GFS run.

 

[rdale]

Just a reminder - getting worked up about run to run changes in low pressure tracks is probably the least useful ways of making a forecast. It's better to learn why the model is doing that, and use that knowledge as something to help you make a better forecast.

 

[Chris Heater]

Seems like the models (for now) are consistantly keeping the heaviest snow way north of me. Hopefully this changes. Hoping for a good snowstorm early in the winter. We'll see if the models bring the storm further south. It's not looking for me right now

 

[Joel Wright]

GEM continues it's consistency which is nice to see. Kind of wonder if it's overdoing the strength a bit, but it's possible given the baroclinicy, etc. Looks like 6-10" in a fairly large band from Iowa to northern lower MI. If storm deepens per GEM then blizzard conditions would be a real possibility.

 

[Robert Dewey]

GEM continues it's consistency which is nice to see. Kind of wonder if it's overdoing the strength a bit, but it's possible given the baroclinicy, etc. Looks like 6-10" in a fairly large band from Iowa to northern lower MI. If storm deepens per GEM then blizzard conditions would be a real possibility.

GFS also stronger and bumped a bit further north, though not nearly as strong as the GEM. NAM is still having lunch with NGM, lol.

If we can't keep it all snow here in SE MI, I'd rather see the GEM solution come to light. That'd be one hell of a wind storm with 965-970mb over Lake Huron!

 

[Joel Wright]

If we can't keep it all snow here in SE MI, I'd rather see the GEM solution come to light. That'd be one hell of a wind storm with 965-970mb over Lake Huron!

Well you're gonna love the new Euro then. It bombs the surface low to 966mb over Lake Huron by late Wednesday. A couple more model runs like these and confidence in a blizzard scenario for parts of the Midwest will really begin to accelerate.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

1970 mb over Lake Huron

I have been watching this one closely for a couple of days now. I am located at the West tip of Lake Ontario in Hamilton.

I don't hold hopes for a big snowfall, but think we might get a few hours of heavy snow Wednesday before the warm advection driven by very strong low level SE winds change the pricip over to rain.

With both the Euro and the Gem hinting at a low center dropping to below 1970 Mb over Lake Huron there is the potential for a severe storm surge on lake Erie. Key agreviating factors include:

-The cyclonic curvature of the isobars over Lake Erie may be minimal Thursday morning, reducing the centripetal slowing of wind speeds in that area.

-No shore ice to protect from battering surf.

-Strong air-water temperature difference, with sensible heat flux increasing to perhaps 200-300 watts per square meter, increasing the ratio of surface to free wind speeds (similar to the effect of strong solar heating during a sunny spring or early summer day when winds at the top of the mixed layer are strong, precipitating a particularly gusty afternoon).

Folks along the east end of Lake Erie had better be on guard if the CMC or Euro do verify!!!

 

[Chris Heater]

Here's to hoping the track shifts south a little bit for me. I made a bet with my teacher we'd see at least 5" of snow, so I have my fingers crossed

 

[Chris Carter]

Winter Weather Advisories for much of Nebraska, Northern KS and Iowa for today's snow. Narrow band of 3-4" possibly 5" runs from North Platte to Des Moines.

Winter Storm Watches over Northern KS, Northern MO, and South Central to Eastern NE. Only Hastings has mentioned in their discussion of amounts of 6 -10" or more possible along the KS/NE border.

Track still uncertain as the low is still in British Columbia, but most models with the exception of the NAM are in pretty good track agreement, strength is still a problem but pretty close in agreement as well. Timing is another big issue, since the low doesn't close off, its gonna really hurt the snow amounts.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

Minneapolis NWS service said they considered going with a winter storm watch but decided to hold off until at least later today...I would imagine most of them will go up then.

Obviously the track of the heavy snow is only part of the story with this storm. The strong winds are whats going to cause the BIG problems over a widespread area...

 

[Chris Heater]

Dear winter storm...please shift south by 100 miles so I can get in on some action. Thank you!

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Well, i guess ill go ahead and make everyone happy. I now place a JINX on this storm however everyone but here can have all the snow and wind they want. Enjoy the cold temperatures as well. good day

 

[Robert Dewey]

I like how several model runs (WRF/ARW) take the SFC low up into Lake Superior and dropping it down to 950-955mb: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tp...rack.srperts.2009120609.east_coast.single.gif

Also interesting how the 12z NAM and GFS have trended much stronger, yet maintain a similar SFC low track keeping a similar thermal profile (perhaps this has something to do with the placement / strength of the high pressure to the NE feeding in cold air?). What I'm not understanding is why the GFS (at least the 6z) is choosing the western most track out of all of the NCEP ensembles: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.aeperts.2009120606.east_coast.single.gif

12z GEM trending stronger / further NW. In fact, it would mean mostly rain S/E of a line from DVN to MBS.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Okay, 950-955mb is purely insane! Would love to see the waves on Lake Superior if that happens. Not to mention the blizzard it would generate.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

"THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM THAT MAY RESULT IN PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OVER LARGE AREAS AND DAMAGE FROM FALLEN TREES OR LARGE TREE LIMBS. STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS WINTER STORM."

This was the wording from the DVN NWS office, do they have the ability to issue a PDS Blizzard Warning?