12/08/2009-12/09/2009 Winter Storm

[Robert Dewey]

960 would be awesome. The problem is, it needs to be over West Virginia and going into central PA for me

This is still WAY too early for me. I'm going to stop looking until this is within the 84hr range... no sense in pulling my hair out over it now

 

[Chris Heater]

This is still WAY too early for me. I'm going to stop looking until this is within the 84hr range... no sense in pulling my hair out over it now

I was telling everyone at school today we COULD see a snowstorm around this timeframe, BUT there is still a lot of uncertainty and its very far off. As of now it does look good for most of us though

 

[Chris Carter]

Latest GFS now pushed the low's track a little further north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

It takes the low from southern CO to the panhandle of OK/TX, moves it slowly ENE towards south central KS towards KC. Then out towards Springfield and Chicago.

Looks like its trending towards the European model, and working more moisture into the system than the previous runs. 988mb from the Southwest to the Plains, once it reaches Chicago it deepens to 972mb. I really hope this stays consistent.

I dont have a good link to see the European, i just have to go off what everyone says it looks like. haha.

 

[Chris Heater]

Latest GFS now pushed the low's track a little further north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

It takes the low from southern CO to the panhandle of OK/TX, moves it slowly ENE towards south central KS towards KC. Then out towards Springfield and Chicago.

Looks like its trending towards the European model, and working more moisture into the system than the previous runs. 988mb from the Southwest to the Plains, once it reaches Chicago it deepens to 972mb. I really hope this stays consistent.

I dont have a good link to see the European, i just have to go off what everyone says it looks like. haha.

Would this be a good thing for where i live (Champaign/Urbana, IL) if i want a lot of snow? Still learning here...sorry

 

[Joel Wright]

GFS and GEM have trended stronger and hence further north with the surface low track. GEM tracks the low from southeast KS to Chicago. It also "bombs" it to 974mb by the time it reaches southern Lake Michigan. This is fairly agreeable with both the operational GFS and parallel GFS.

Models may be overdoing the strength with this a bit, so a track further to the south is still possible. We'll have to wait and see what the new Euro has to say about it in another hour or so.

 

[jshields]

the new ecmwf is out and keeps the track from colorado across se kansas and then all the way to southeast canada, from days 4-6. it's faster than the other models, but all models move the system fairly quickly. still qpf is fairly high and the snow ratios should also be fairly high with the cold temps in place, probably on the order of 15:1. also of note is the potential for blizzard conditions. 850mb winds are 60 kts on wednesday morning across eastern nebraska, northeastern kansas, and western iowa. definitely something to watch over the next several days!

GFS and GEM have trended stronger and hence further north with the surface low track. GEM tracks the low from southeast KS to Chicago. It also "bombs" it to 974mb by the time it reaches southern Lake Michigan. This is fairly agreeable with both the operational GFS and parallel GFS.

Models may be overdoing the strength with this a bit, so a track further to the south is still possible. We'll have to wait and see what the new Euro has to say about it in another hour or so.

 

[jshields]

Where do you guys get those model runs? I can't remember the site

i use: http://vansvault.org/weather/ncep_model_data.php

also http://vansvault.org/weather/
has several links to different models, sites, etc.

i use penn state e-wall for the ecmwf, cmc, and ukmet.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

 

[Chris Carter]

It slowed it down a little bit, compared to the previous run where F120 had it sitting over Western CO and in F144 its in Chicago. I chuckled when i saw that.

The GFS/GEM/CMC are in pretty good agreement with timing, its the track that is still rather shady.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I know I said I wouldn't look... but 10 out of 21 0z GEM ensemble members AOB 970mb @ 144h. Incredible.

 

[Chris Carter]

Latest ECMWF 12Z run has pushed the low south, now following the GFS track. though the speed and timing is still fast. Only difference is GFS takes the low into the great lakes, while the ECMWF takes it further east towards Maine.

Update: After reading the forecast discussions from Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. They seem to agree with the current outlook from GFS/ECMWF, someone in the central plains could see 12-18" of snow from this system. The only problem is where to put it at.

The problem with Illinois is with the slower GFS and the intensity of the system, enough warm air could make its way into the Illinois and Indiana area for a rain/snow mix.

 

[Chris Heater]

Here is the ILX disco from today. Seems like their going with the more consistent models. We'll see how this changes over the next several days leading up to the storm

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY. A WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAS RAISED CONCERNS
ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND...AND THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ENERGY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL. THE BEST BET FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL REMAINS NORTHWEST OF LINCOLN...BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. A RAIN/SNOW LINE WOULD MOST LIKELY SET UP
NEAR SHELBYVILLE TO DECATUR TO DANVILLE TUES NIGHT...THEN SLIDE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE WSW CORNER OF
THE CWA. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT...BUT
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF MIXED PRECIP AT THIS POINT. RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BE THE PROMINENT
PRECIP TYPES.

THE COLDER 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION ACTUALLY PUSHES THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE FARTHER SE...AND EXPANDS THE AREA OF MEASURABLE
SNOW INTO SE IL.

WE STAYED CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE WITH OUR FORECAST...AND WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. UNDER THAT
SCENARIO...WE EXPECT A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RISING TEMPS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...OR SE OF
LINCOLN...AND STEADY TEMPS NW OF THERE. THEN WEDNESDAY WOULD
LIKELY SEE FALLING TEMPS AFTER MORNING HIGHS...AS WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PULL COLD AIR INTO C IL.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Interesting to note that the 18z GFS now much more progressive... splitting the energy with a developing coastal low, much more in line with the 12z UKMET (per HPC discussion). While the model runs are exciting to look at (particularly since I've never seen the GEM ensembles so bonkers), things can change in the 6hrs between runs. FWIW, the GEM did a superb job predicting the previous event; the GFS and UKMET had a significant easterly bias. The ECMWF is practically useless to me unless the storm is captured at one of the ridiculously spaced timesteps.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Have to say there is a lot up in the air right now about the storm track but there is one thing that has not changed. The dynamics of this storm are amazing. 150 mph Jet streak, very moist profiles, and a deep low. Of course the question is where will the exact track end up. Looking at the models every 6 hours this far out will drive you crazy, you can try to predict where it will end up...but at this point it is anyone's guess. Good idea to analyze dynamics right now so you know what is going to hit you or not hit you 24 hours out.

While nearly all of my attention is being put into this major system mid week, but taking a look even further out shows another potentially strong system nipping at the heels of this one. Wherever this first storm lays down a heavy batch of snow will likely determine the baroclinic zone and therefore the path of the next storm system.

Lots going on finally in the weather pattern...love it!

 

[Chris Carter]

Have to say there is a lot up in the air right now about the storm track but there is one thing that has not changed. The dynamics of this storm are amazing. 150 mph Jet streak, very moist profiles, and a deep low. Of course the question is where will the exact track end up. Looking at the models every 6 hours this far out will drive you crazy, you can try to predict where it will end up...but at this point it is anyone's guess. Good idea to analyze dynamics right now so you know what is going to hit you or not hit you 24 hours out.

While nearly all of my attention is being put into this major system mid week, but taking a look even further out shows another potentially strong system nipping at the heels of this one. Wherever this first storm lays down a heavy batch of snow will likely determine the baroclinic zone and therefore the path of the next storm system.

Lots going on finally in the weather pattern...love it!

I think the key to deciding where the mid-week system takes its track rides on how the minor shortwave before it pans out. The predicted track for this weekends shortwave is through central Kansas and then fizzes out. The mid-week system will follow a track a few hundred miles south of that track. However some models are saying the shortwave this weekend will take a more southeast track really bringing in the cold air back into the southeast of country, setting up a more southern track.

So in the end it depends on what happens with this shortwave that comes out of the Rockies, before a sure track might be pinpointed for the beast that hits next week.

And you are right, there seems to be another potent system lurking off the CA coast that could bring another round of snow next weekend.

 

[Robert Dewey]

0z GFS trending back toward a non-coastal solution. 0z GEM is in, and it's nearly identical to it's 12z run; looks like the model of choice for right now. Ensembles aren't in, so it's lights out.