Severe Storms of Two Kinds
WOW! System that was no more at last nightss 06Z runs, in now very alive!
My first item of interest is the severe storms threat this afternoon.....
SFC front should lowly traverse the area today and provide a focal point for shower and thunderstorms. Already a strong storms noted on WSR 88-D for NWS Quad Cities. Expect initiation in OK/AR/TX/MO this afternoon. Weaker lapse rates with northern extent of the front will preclude higher instability. 50 F dewpoints and daytime heating should be able to put MUCAPE aoa 500 j/kg in illinois, with greater amounts with southward extent. Supercell potential is there, but the greatest threat should be in central texas where low level shear can be maximized.. Storms, once intitation will develop and move northeast along the front.
Now the Snowstorm...
Moisture fields become somewhat depleted where after the cold front treks across the area. This would mainly happen the areas in Northcentral IA and Northcentral Mo, which would have an effect on the amount of post frontal winter precip. If moisture is meager then ice accums in these areas would obviously lesser. Gulf moisture comes quickly into the area right in time before the next system, is forecast to glide northward along the front, early thursday morning. Timing shows favorable for significant ice accums, some spots possibly over .5 inches!!
This would most likely AT THIS TIME, occur from an area around 100 miles any direction of St. Louis, by early thursday morning, the precip should be able to turn to light snow. Depending on how long WA precip can last, amounts could be as high as 4-8 inches, from a Jefferson City,MO -Springfield, IL axis. With Sharply lesser amounts on either side. Evolution of the Low is still at question. Thus timing, amounts, and location are still at question.. Models are coming together better. So we'll have to see. It's gonna be an interesting next few days.
