John Massura
EF1
Potential seems to be increasing for a decent snow event, mainly in a narrow band from OK, northeastward into IL. Have been watching this pretty much all day. I suspect the links below may change.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif (84-hour snow forecast from the 03/0000z NAM run)
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif (84-hour snow forecast from the 03/0000z GFS run)
The NAM began going nuts with the heavy snow on the 02/0600z run, and it has continued all day through the current 03/0000z run. The band has remained in a similar orientation, but very narrow. The GFS has been indicating a slightly later start time, and a broader area of lighter snowfall for this entire period. Will be interesting to watch. The GFS solution seems to be a bit colder and farther south, with mainly a snow event. The NAM is a bit slower with the cold air at the surface, with a chance of some sleet/freezing rain with the earlier onset. Doesn't seem to be a widespread or major issue though at this time. Soundings for the OKC area seem to indicate virtually all snow with both model solutions.
Most of the forcing seems to be at upper-levels, with the NAM kicking out a slightly stronger vort max Sunday night, with the GFS shearing it out a bit quicker. Both models indicate a fairly impressive dual-jet streak structure over the Southern Plains. Due to this relative lack of low-level forcing and WAA, I would think to lean in the direction of the GFS amounts, though I believe these dynamic systems give the SPlains it's big snowfalls. However, the amounts could very well depend on the storm track, with the NAM a bit farther north, allowing some slightly better moisture north at 850mb or so.
From last year, the NAM over-estimated snowfall a lot, and combined with time of year, the snow amounts it is spitting out do seem to be a bit high. Will be fun to watch though as usual. I'm not a huge winter weather forecaster, so any critiques of my thoughts would be welcomed!
(edit) Trial and error skills enabled me to attach the actual images, which shouldn't change! Yay.
(edit 2) They changed. Pooper...I fail at internets.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif (84-hour snow forecast from the 03/0000z NAM run)
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif (84-hour snow forecast from the 03/0000z GFS run)
The NAM began going nuts with the heavy snow on the 02/0600z run, and it has continued all day through the current 03/0000z run. The band has remained in a similar orientation, but very narrow. The GFS has been indicating a slightly later start time, and a broader area of lighter snowfall for this entire period. Will be interesting to watch. The GFS solution seems to be a bit colder and farther south, with mainly a snow event. The NAM is a bit slower with the cold air at the surface, with a chance of some sleet/freezing rain with the earlier onset. Doesn't seem to be a widespread or major issue though at this time. Soundings for the OKC area seem to indicate virtually all snow with both model solutions.
Most of the forcing seems to be at upper-levels, with the NAM kicking out a slightly stronger vort max Sunday night, with the GFS shearing it out a bit quicker. Both models indicate a fairly impressive dual-jet streak structure over the Southern Plains. Due to this relative lack of low-level forcing and WAA, I would think to lean in the direction of the GFS amounts, though I believe these dynamic systems give the SPlains it's big snowfalls. However, the amounts could very well depend on the storm track, with the NAM a bit farther north, allowing some slightly better moisture north at 850mb or so.
From last year, the NAM over-estimated snowfall a lot, and combined with time of year, the snow amounts it is spitting out do seem to be a bit high. Will be fun to watch though as usual. I'm not a huge winter weather forecaster, so any critiques of my thoughts would be welcomed!
(edit) Trial and error skills enabled me to attach the actual images, which shouldn't change! Yay.
(edit 2) They changed. Pooper...I fail at internets.


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