• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

12/31/07-01/01/08 FCST:IA/IL/MO/IN/OH/MI

Jesse Risley

Staff member
Joined
Apr 12, 2006
Messages
2,273
Location
Macomb, IL
A developing winter weather system will move out of Eastern Kansas this morning and push its way ENE, reaching the Great Lakes region by tomorrow. The low will likely follow the I-70 corridor, with a slightly more northeastern track overnight. Given thermal profiles with possible warm air advection in parts of IA and IL, suggest widespread snow amounts of 1â€￾-4â€￾ will occur to the WNW of the low pressure system, with enhanced lake effect snows likely as the system intensifies. While moisture is not impressive with this system, accumulations of 6+â€￾ are likely in parts of NE Indiana and SE lower Michigan. Arctic air will filter in behind the system from the NW, making for a rather chilly start to the New Year.

The NAM-WRF and GFS both verify this track, although the latest WRF wants to take the low on a more southerly track. Any deviation from the current forecast track will certainly make a difference in snowfall totals, especially for the Great Lakes region.
 
14z RUC/12z GFS and WRF continue to indicate the low developing over IL before moving out of the area. The heaviest QPF values across the IA/MO border eastward into IL. Here 2-4 Inches look to be a good idea. HPC picking up on this, with the aforementioned area in the slight probability of greater than 4 inches.

Models showing some modest WAA occurring from the southwest which could enhance some totals.

Snow Advisory's issued over all the area.
 
I'm running about 5-10" for Coldwater to Flint with potential for 1 foot +

I hope you're right... 12Z GFS shows more QPF, so I'm a little more confident. Looking at BUFKIT, the dynamics are extremely good and I suspect some areas might even see thunder-snow.

Since these storms do the opposite of what I say, I'm still going to say 4-6 inches, and I'll revise those amounts when I see the flakes falling in my backyard.
 
I told them about the NDFD issue - it'll be fixed for the next run. NWS is in the 8-12" range for Lansing, which is still a bit high for my liking...
 
4-5" on the ground in Lansing this morning, another 2-3" possible so that matches up well... 11" near Coldwater (along I-69 near the Indiana border)!
 
Got about 8.5 inches here... Reports at the NWS office shows 12 inches, with 14-16 inches in far northern Oakland and southern Lapeer. Not sure how they derived the values seen on their snowfall map, especially when I don't see any reports in the LSR from Lapeer county.

Also, this snow is extremely wet... I bet if you melted it down, you would see a snow-to-liquid ratio of 12:1 tops, probably even less. That means the QPF fields of +1 inch on the GFS and NAM most likely verified for at least a few people.
 
SWE measurements running around 14-16:1, QPF's in Lansing and GRR (where a real observation is made) show the models needed to be cut by nearly 50%
 
Mods: I am not sure if this belongs in this thread ... So please correct if necessary.

I found these conditions near I-65 in northern Indiana at about 1 PM (1-1-2008)...

snow1.jpg


Blowing and drifting snow, 40-MPH NW winds, temperature 18 F

snow3.jpg


Accumulation at this point was roughly 6" (hard to measure with the snow blowing so much).
 
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