11/28/06 FCST: NE/KS/OK/TX

Michael O'Keeffe

There is potential for a cold core setup to arise over the Central Plains in wake of a strong storm system. There still is uncertainty about if this will pan out or not as of know it doesn't look to promising, but the same thing happened on Nov 27 last year as the models jumped around, so you never know. Dewpoints to 60F will be found possibily all the way up to Kansas. As well as good shear and a strong dryline will be in place. Now all we really need is the system to dig a little deeper like it was showing a few runs ago.
I have a feeling this will pan out because we still are 4 days out and anything can happen. If it does I can see a few tornadoes somewhere in the plains from S NE southward.
I cant believe how the models are jumping around. Not only do they not agree with other models, they themselves change every run, with both timing and strength differences.:confused: Moisture return, which seems to be pretty impressive, with fairly high RH values and 60 F dewpoints, seems to be the one thing that is somwhat common between the models. Depending on what model you want to believe, its kind of a toss up. Latest GFS model, slows down the system, bringing the low pressure and the associated cold front through, in the early afternoon on wednesday. Which would take in the insolation that had already take place. I am in western illinois. Depending on when the front can come through, winds and hail could be a threat as far north as central IA. Since models show it as a possibility.. Could we extend the thread to MO/IL as well? Im just going to sit back and wait for some more model runs. 3 PM yesterday all local WFO's were highlighting this event, 3AM this morning, not near as talked up. This will be interesting to see how it pans out.:cool:

The storm system seems to slowly be getting its act together.:)
Sounds like you are referring to the weak low pressure system over the Rockies - that's not what you'd want to focus on for next week.