11/20/07-11/22/07 FCST: NE/MN/IA/WI/IL (WINTER PRECIP)

[MatthewCarman]

The local news station CH13 is only expecting mabey a inch of snow if that for central Iowa and said it should be worse to our south. Sounds like a winterstorm or blizzard is fading out of the picture.

I am glad I did not say much to the family because this far out I figured things would most likely change or not pan out.

Edit: Local discusion for central Iowa says there is going to be limited moisture for this system. If this does not change mabey farther south there will be more moisture for this system?

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

wow.. it sure did go downhill in that run.. but nothing to worry about.. we are way way out and models will change, whether or not in our favor remains to be seen..... I notice a much more well defined precip shield, and a much faster movement east with the system... Ill give it a couple days..

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Currently here in the U.P of Mich. on a photo job. I'm guardedly optimistic that since the OZ GFS runs, the projected cyclogenesis is not as robust and comes out as an open wave on Tue. PM into Wed. AM, In a way, I hope that materializes as I'm traveling in my Honda Civic back home during that time frame.. I'm not into major winter storms while traveling in that car.

 

[Joel Wright]

This sort of reminds me of the 11/30-12/01 storm in the midwest and southern plains last year. The models showed a deep longwave trough/arctic plunge with crashing heights yet showed it being fairly progressive a week or so out. Many of the models developed and significantly deepened a surface cyclone in one run, only to flop back and open back up in the next run. Obviously, we all know what ended up happening.

Not saying that's going to happen this time. Every situation is different. I find it hard to believe that it will be that progressive with such a strong artic intrusion. I'm betting there'll be some decent shortwaves rounding the base and inducing a decent storm system further west. As we say over and over again in threads like these, time will tell.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Wow what a compilation of data Beau ! That was quite a storm that had it all. I had 2" per hour for a short time here on DEC 1st and measured about 14" here in RFD. Wow.
Lets see what this Winter throws at us in the coming weeks and months.. I doubt this next system will be up to that kind of potency but there's plenty more coming if not. If I does it will be quite a mess for some..

 

[beaudodson]

Wow what a compilation of data Beau ! That was quite a storm that had it all. I had 2" per hour for a short time here on DEC 1st and measured about 14" here in RFD. Wow.
Lets see what this Winter throws at us in the coming weeks and months.. I doubt this next system will be up to that kind of potency but there's plenty more coming if not. If I does it will be quite a mess for some..

My post got pulled because I didn't state what the link was. I guess I will try again.

This link below is in reference to the November 30th and December 1st storm of 2006. I chased that storm and here is the data from it
http://www.weatherphotography.net/dec1winterstorm2006.htm

also some of my photos from that storm
http://www.weatherphotography.net/gallery1.htm

Comparing that storm to this storm would probably be like comparing an orange to a walnut. I agree that the models can sometimes lose a storm and then pick it back up. No doubt about that. This season though the models have not been on fire past day 4 or 5. This is likely to be the case again. The GFS did show, for several runs even, a significant storm. The last few runs though have taken that idea away. The GFS is in more agreement with the EC. A weaker and more strung out storm system.

On the link above you can see how last years storm evolved. I believe the models were fairly consistent with the idea that an intense storm would develop. They may have lost it for a day or two but overall some good calls were made well in advance of that winter storm.

The intensity of that boundary was also more intense than what is currently being progged for the upcoming storm. I believe temperatures actually fell into the single digits or below zero in the Peoria area - after the storm pulled out. Course there was a foot of snow on the ground at that time.

I am not overly excited about the prospect for this to be a repeat of that or anything close to it. Will keep watching though like everyone else. At one point it appeared that some severe weather was possible across this region. Looking more like a cold rain now. At least the pattern is active.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Its sad to say, but I think we all can see the prospects of this being a significant winter wx event is fading further and further away.... With each run, it only moves faster way out of here before any cold air can sag into the area.. While things can still change, i must say, my hopes are sure fading as fast as the system keeps speeding up..


I think DVN said it very well with this statement.

EARLY SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW
EVENTS USUALLY RELY ON HEAVY SNOW OVERWHELMING MARGINAL GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT
FALL HEAVILY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE IN OUR CWA.

After a few days of the much colder temps progged to move into the area we should get around that factor..

 

[Robert Dewey]

Its sad to say, but I think we all can see the prospects of this being a significant winter wx event is fading further and further away....

Brandon... Keep saying that. It seems whatever you say, the opposite happens.

Latest trends with the ensembles are for a deeper mid-level trough with more of a negative tilt. The 06Z GFS responds with a deeper SFC low development, rather than the progressive system (ensembles support this with several closed AOB 996MB isobars near the Great Lakes). While the 00Z GEM was much more progressive, I'm somewhat more confident that we'll see this system re-appear over the next several model runs...

 

[rdale]

I think we all can see the prospects of this being a significant winter wx event is fading further and further away....

Then again - many of us saw that there never was any real prospect of this being a significant event days ago

 

[beaudodson]

Morning trends on the GFS and NAM are for a stronger/more organized storm system. Will be curious if this will be one of those cases where the models seemed to lose the storm and then pick it back up again. I don't believe that has been the case lately with most systems. This could be an exception though. If the GFS continues the trend then we might have a decent storm on our hands. Currently GFS would paint decent snow across portions of Iowa and then east/northeast. Severe weather threat starting to look a bit more likely as well. CAPE values continue to climb on each run across the KPAH Region - southward. Trends are your friend if you are looking for some snow out of this. Still a lot of disagreement though on the models as to how this unfolds.

 

[Jeff Miller]

I saw the trend to on the 12Z run with the storm suddenly back on the radar, stronger and further west. The next run will be quite important with the genesis of this potential winter weather event for possibly Iowa and eastnortheast.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Then again - many of us saw that there never was any real prospect of this being a significant event days ago

Rob, I agree with what your reasoning- I had my doubts too as I clearly stated - my outline for starting to thread was outlined in my beginning thread, and the only reason I outlined the threat early was due to the impending holiday season as well as the strength that the model had implied. As you can see, we cannot now completely write this off - some impending wintery conditions certainly are plausible. It would be no different than you telling your TV audience that "there is a possibility of wintery conditions by thanksgiving - stay tuned to News at 11 for details."

 

[Joel Wright]

Then again - many of us saw that there never was any real prospect of this being a significant event days ago

Haha. Well, with a trough like this one digging down it's definitely a good idea to keep an eye on it. Like I said yesterday, I'd be very surprised if it ends up being as progressive as what it is/has been showing. Not saying we're going to see a superstorm arise out of it, but definitely the strong possibility of a respectable storm.

The main reason I was comparing this system (or potential system) to the 11/30-12/01 from last year was the time of the season, and the way the models flipped flopped back and forth between a fast/open wave, and a stronger, more closed off one.

 

[rdale]

It would be no different than you telling your TV audience that "there is a possibility of wintery conditions by thanksgiving - stay tuned to News at 11 for details."

Exactly - I was addressing more the quote that I referenced of the significant storm threat diminishing... I'm just saying it wasn't that high to begin with!

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Brandon... Keep saying that. It seems whatever you say, the opposite happens.

Latest trends with the ensembles are for a deeper mid-level trough with more of a negative tilt. The 06Z GFS responds with a deeper SFC low development, rather than the progressive system (ensembles support this with several closed AOB 996MB isobars near the Great Lakes). While the 00Z GEM was much more progressive, I'm somewhat more confident that we'll see this system re-appear over the next several model runs...

All strategy man... Hahah.. Yes, it is seeming to re appear... I had stopped watching it the last 2 day.. But 12z GFS has snow over the area by Wed. Night Thurs Morn.. Local Soil analysis shows some pretty warm soil temps. So enough snow would need to fall to cool it down, before it could accumulate very well.. It will depend alot on how much moisture is left, and if we can get a def. zone formed.