10/10/2018 - Hurricane Michael

[Warren Faidley]

Hurricane Michael will be a no go for me. Main concern is that onshore action will likely be in the grasslands east of of Panama City Beach. That low and no-infrastructure area runs all the way south to almost Tampa. Interesting how the two major hurricanes so far this season have hit in dead zones of chasing.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This is a tough one. This is a good week for me to take off, and I'm eager to experience a daytime landfall of a quick-hitting Cat 3 - but I agree with Warren. On its current forecast track, it's coming into an area with absolutely no suitable shelter within 50 miles of the coast. I'm going to regret not going if the track shifts west and Panama City ends up being ground zero, though. That would be as an almost-ideal scenario for a hurricane chase as you can get, one that we haven't had for many, many years. At least two parking garages there, daytime landfall, solidly-major hurricane, storm gone by nightfall. The only other contingency option I see is Tallahassee for an eastward track shift, but likely at Cat 1 or less strength. Really no options for in between unless you want to lose your car in the surge.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The major models keep Michael's onshore / right quad just east of Panama City. I have not used the RAP much for predicting hurricane landfalls but it also maintains offshore or parallel flow near Panama City as Michael moves inland. It's really on a razor's edge as to what residents or chasers there will experience. A minor shift of 40-50 miles east or west makes for the chase of a lifetime or a bust. The major front moving in from the west is clearly the play maker here and / or a possible eye wall morph / wobble between now and landfall. I am most concerned about Apalachicola -- and especially Carrabelle and Lanark Village as those cities could be moonscaped if the storm has direction, time and energy to generate a major surge. This storm could be a potent killer given the serious delay in media attention and the failure of residents to evacuate in time.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I decided to pull the trigger on this one. Models seem to have locked in with remarkable consistency and the NHC has stayed with their track that has generally mirrored the model consensus, aside from a westward shift in the tropical guidance earlier today. Target is Panama City/Callaway, with the plan to move northeast to one of the inland towns if the track shifts east. Elevation data shows most of that area is over 50 feet and would be out of the surge. I'm not going anywhere near the coast, as "moonscaped" is almost certain for much of that area southeast of Panama City.

I will not be staying in a hotel. I of course have all of the necessary supplies including 15 gallons of reserve fuel (that's about 1.3 tanks with my car). Fuel reports shows plenty of gas on the way down, with most of the outages within 50 miles of the coast. Hotel booking data shows Montgomery 97% booked and Birmingham nearing 50%. That provides an estimated evacuee radius. I saw several big jams on I-65 northbound, between Nashville and Birmingham, I'm not sure if those are related. Southbound is free-flowing.

I'm optimistic for some decent daytime action, even if I have to settle for the western eyewall. I'll report in here in this thread periodically.

 

[David Cox]

NHC 10:00 PM CDT discussion says Michael explicitly forecast to be Category 4 hurricane before landfall.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Gas stations are out south of Troy, Alabama, 2 and a half hours north of the coast. Chasers WILL need adequate fuel reserves! If you are arriving late, you'll need to get your reserve containers filled 3 or 4 hours out and top off your main tank at every opportunity. With no reserves, you *will not* make it out.

 

[Dan Robinson]

8:36AM CDT - finally starting to see TS-force gusts in Panama City. No damage so far with outer bands. Still a LOT of local traffic on the roads. I surveyed the road to Wewahitchka (Rt 22) in case of an eastward shift, and is is a no-go due to tall trees closely lining it for 20 miles. It will be blocked for a long time. So, Callaway will be the eastern extent of the chase zone. Will head to reinforced shelter in downtown Panama City for eyewall in any case given Cat 4+ strength.

 

[Dan Robinson]

9:40AM - only now seeing the first power flashes of the day during the higher gusts. The wind field is relatively small. Will ramp up very fast here soon.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like Michael has begun the northeastern shift judging by the latest radar image. I believe the parallel surface flow along the coast has greatly reduced the chances of a ocean mega-surge, in Panama City, but we will see. The web cams (as seen below on the beach) show a somewhat civilized scene. I'm sure winds will be the main destructive force unless the storm turns back west. Really concerned about the areas east of Panama City.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I've seen a lot of chasers (from their mobile ID's) heading east of Panama City to get into the core of Michael as it shifts east. Although I have not scouted that route in years, I seem to remember there is little in the way of infrastructure or elevation. The core of Michael is still very strong and the onshore flow could rapidly produce a dangerous surge, possibly cutting off escape routes. Just a note.

 

[David Cox]

I'm new to weather radar study. I am seeing on Eglin AFB radar small areas indicating 223 mph in the eye wall opposite the flow of the storm. Would these be tornadoes or is this just noise? Thanks.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Identical to Jim Edds' Charley video downtown Panama City now. Debris-filled roaring air. Incredible.

 

[Greg Campbell]

How NOT to chase a hurricane.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=379831762558485

 

[Dan Robinson]

8:00pm - made it out of the damage zone and am in my hotel room in Destin. Getting out was a literal maze with trees blocking most streets and lots of wood debris with nails. Damage in Panama City is very serious, it looked to me like more than half of structures are total losses. Still very little gas west of landfall, but I am seeing a few stations that have received shipments. I still have 11 of my 15 gallon reserves. I posted a quick edit on Youtube. This will get a detailed report on my web site and a reports thread eventually.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Great job Dan, glad you made it through OK. I can only imagine what would have happened in Panama Beach had the surge side hit at the same time.