Skip Talbot
EF5
I'm not sold on this setup folks. I think its going to be a bunch of junk in the jungles, but please ridicule this forecast as I hope its wrong...
http://twisterdata.com/index.php?so...put=image&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y
South central Missouri forecast sounding at 0z. That's right on the instability axis, note the unidirectional wind profile and mediocre surface winds. 6km shear at 30-40 knots supports severe weather, but its not overly impressive either, especially when trying to justify the meager Cape. The bulk of the energy looks like its going to be north of the warm front and lagging west behind the cold front. The best directional shear is ahead of the instability axis in Illinois.
I also noticed that there is a cap in place until mid afternoon. While this would generally be a good thing, as it suppresses convection until the atmosphere is more primed, I don't doubt we'll have early initiation of an elevated line. Any play off of this line is going to have to wait until mid afternoon when the inhibition erodes and the cells can become rooted to the surface. Hopefully there won't be a solid, congealed mess by then. At 0z this line should also be situated over central MO and AR. So given, the meager instability, rough terrain of the Ozarks and southern MO, and the unimpressive hodos, I think tomorrow is going to be a real tough play. Can you get enough clearing to eek out some instability, catch a break in the line, and in someplace with a view? Maybe.
Some positives: The LCLs are going to be ground hugging thanks to the lack of surface heating from early convection. Storm speeds don't look too bad over the instability axis since hte bulk of the speed shear is behind the front. If the atmosphere does contradict the models and clears early, we could have a decent severe event.
http://twisterdata.com/index.php?so...put=image&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y
South central Missouri forecast sounding at 0z. That's right on the instability axis, note the unidirectional wind profile and mediocre surface winds. 6km shear at 30-40 knots supports severe weather, but its not overly impressive either, especially when trying to justify the meager Cape. The bulk of the energy looks like its going to be north of the warm front and lagging west behind the cold front. The best directional shear is ahead of the instability axis in Illinois.
I also noticed that there is a cap in place until mid afternoon. While this would generally be a good thing, as it suppresses convection until the atmosphere is more primed, I don't doubt we'll have early initiation of an elevated line. Any play off of this line is going to have to wait until mid afternoon when the inhibition erodes and the cells can become rooted to the surface. Hopefully there won't be a solid, congealed mess by then. At 0z this line should also be situated over central MO and AR. So given, the meager instability, rough terrain of the Ozarks and southern MO, and the unimpressive hodos, I think tomorrow is going to be a real tough play. Can you get enough clearing to eek out some instability, catch a break in the line, and in someplace with a view? Maybe.
Some positives: The LCLs are going to be ground hugging thanks to the lack of surface heating from early convection. Storm speeds don't look too bad over the instability axis since hte bulk of the speed shear is behind the front. If the atmosphere does contradict the models and clears early, we could have a decent severe event.
