1/28/2006 FCST: TX / Southern Plains

[Bill Tabor]

Obviously the issue today will be instability. With all the widespread rain it could be tough to get cape up and LI down.

I'm basing most of my potential for severe weather on the forecast 500mb mid level wave supposed to pass through Tx. If it isn't as strong or doesn't happen that could really shut down severe potential IMO. Additionally, if rain can clear east a bit and allow some heating that would be a bonus.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

We are headed out towards Wichita right now, on highway 400 just west of Pittsburg KS right now.

 

[Simon Brewer]

Jim Bishop and I are currently waiting and watching this setup unfold in Norman. I'm currently targeting an area between Norman and the Red River along the I-35 corridor; instability will increase during afternoon, shear looks good, and I like the looks of that intense vort max. Worst that could happen is a squall-line due to so much forcing and weak cap.......really wish we would get a weak cap in May and June, but it doesn't look very promissing for the late spring.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Cloud deck seems to be shifting eastward at this point. Seems there might be some CU underneath some high clouds in WC Oklahoma near Hobart right now as well. There's a narrow axis of 250 sbcape along the western fringes of the cloudcover in this area as well. If things can hold off another couple of hours, we may be in business...

 

[samuel stone]

The low cloud deck has completely cleared out hear in south central kansas just ahead of the cold front cu field is forming, 250 sb cape is nosing in from the south. Lifted index around -2, LCL heights around 600 so things should be surface based, great 0-6 km shear about 60-65 kt so tihngs apear to be shaping up descently around here.

I probabl will head east from hutchinson towards the I-35 coridor shortly.

 

[Chris Lott]

0-3 km srh values are high along and east of the I-35 corridor. Right now in my area there is still a thick cloud deck looming around keeping anything from developing. I think as it burns off better convective development will take place farther east , so in the next hour or so I might head towards I-45 to wait for something.

 

[samuel stone]

Tell me if I'm wrong but it looks like dry air intrusion at th 850 mb(evident on mesoanalysis) in south central kansas is preventing t'storm development at this time, however the atmosphere apears to be more moist at th 850 mb further east into the flint hills corridor. Possibly as the cool front pushes further east into that enviroment (assuming it becomes as unstable as the I-35 corridor) deeper convection will initiate? Just a thought.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Have reviewed RUC and NAM output this morning along with forecast soundings and mesoscaleanalysis parameters:

RUC seems to have a much more conservative approach to the whole thing developing very little instability and progressing east a bit quicker somewhat similar to GFS solution last night. RUC cloud cover fields showing that the area of interest in eastern and northeastern TX will not receive much clearing / heating all day ~ similar to what SPC mentioned. This will make it very difficult for any quality severe storms in TX. (Note I'm primarily focusing on Tx because that's the only place I'd chase today.)

NAM alternatively provides some slightly more favorable scenario for severe and I favor Paris, Tyler, and DUA if I believed the NAM. Unfortunately I think the RUC is closer to the truth.

Mesoanalysis is showing only 500 cape to the west with -1 LI's. I think that will increase slightly today and move eastward across the area of interest in Tx but I don't think it will increase much.

At this point I have limited confidence in severe of any quality or consequence in Tx. Low will move east/northeast and cold front will come in behind and push it all east.

Probable continuance of widespread swath of rainshowers and thunder with a few marginally severe. Chance of tornadoes very low, hail low, wind low. I'd go slight risk over eastern 1/3 of Tx and 2% torns, 5 to10% hail, and perhaps 10% wind.

 

[Brett Roberts]

New MCD regarding the potential for central and eastern Oklahoma and North Texas:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0086.html

 

[Joey Ketcham]

We are in Wichita now, kind of hanging out in this area to see what happens....

 

[Dick McGowan]

lol sitting in pittsburgh KS attm awaiting the arrival of Derek Shaffer. Doesn't look good, oh well, got some new toys to test out.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

The area near Concordia seems fairly interesting to me. This area has the best clearing and some nice backed winds right ahead of the front and convection in the area. Starting to wish I went, but so far not missing too much. Have a feeling though I'll be regretting staying home soon.

 

[Chris Lott]

I was heading west towards I-45 where I thought there would be favorable development but the thick cloud deck was still apparent. The cloud deck did clear to the North however, and some convective development started to erupt north of Hillsboro,Tx. I stayed with it for a while, but nothing seemed to really get going on it's own. Finally it all appeared to crap out. Still waiting to see if anything comes about. Just doesn't appear to be enough heating/clearing for anything to get going in Central Tx.

 

[John MacKay]

That area is starting to look better, as the storms in the Clay Center/Concordia areas are now intensifying further (although the cells are fairly disorganized). We are coming in and out of sun here in Manhattan (I'd say about 50/50 on blue sky to clouds). It does not feel like there is a lot of energy here (yet).

The SPC decided to throw out the slight risk for the eastern third of Kansas for hail and looking at the cells near Clay Center and Concordia coupled with the warming along the dry slot gives a better shot of some severe weather in this area. Also kind of optimistic right now since storms have not gotten going further to the south of the low.

Edit: Not even 15 minutes and it looks like a line is beginning to develop along a Clay Center to Abilene to McPherson line.