1/20/06 - 1/21/06 - MIDWEST SNOWSTORM

No snow! No snow! Happy, happy... Dance, dance! Bring on the warmer temperatures... Joy, joy! I am hoping for a ~2km thick layer of warm air closer to the sfc... Screw winter! Dance, dance! Sunshine and warm temperatures... Good times :)

<img src=http://www.fortogden.com/animronaldmacdonald.gif>
 
Nick, Nick, Nick... You will soon learn that the off season would be deathly boring without any type of weather. Even the most hardcore of chasers enjoy winter weather... It's only old men that don't like it LOL :wink: :lol:

I do think it's kinda nice that you dressed up in a clown suit though :lol:

Anyway, bring on the ZR!
 
I'm glad today is my day off! I'm really worried about wet weather being the main precip type tonight. I can see the snow hammered / bust line finding itself pretty close to Lansing! I'm toning down my radio forecasts at least, especially south of I-96.
 
I'm glad today is my day off! I'm really worried about wet weather being the main precip type tonight. I can see the snow hammered / bust line finding itself pretty close to Lansing! I'm toning down my radio forecasts at least, especially south of I-96.
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Heh, yeah... I'm definitely glad I'm not a professional/employed forecaster. I like the challenge, but not the heat.

It's in the low 40's here, down from 53F-ish earlier today, with a northeasterly wind. Discounting any kind of dynamic cooling, I do think it will be mostly liquid from LAN to PHN southward... SFC temps might be a bit tricky, NAM is within a tenth of a degree from freezing. But, as GRR mentioned, temps are still in the low 40's and the ground/objects will still be quite warm.

I suck at forecasting dynamic cooling, though I do have a formula that I got out of a text book... If I plug in the numbers (layer average temp of 2.5C at 150MB thick), it would take 0.75-0.80 inches of continuous precipitation to cool that layer - provided temperature advection is neutral. That would mean by the time it actually DOES turn to snow, we'd only be talking about 2 inches at best...
 
The rain/snow mix here shifted over to a period of all rain (temp was 33 here at the house) and then it shifted over to light sleet for quite awhile. It's just now switching back to snow, with still some light sleet mixed in. Moline has reported all snow the whole time, and they're only five miles to my west.

Still just a 1/4" in the grass here. The clusters of precip aren't very organized at all yet. I'm hoping this sytem gets organized a little quicker before the best lift is out of here.

This is a pretty tricky forecast. So many factors that have major impacts on who gets what for how long. 8)
 
<img src=http://www.fortogden.com/animslickness.gif>
This is me doing the happy faces for warm low-level temps

<img src=http://www.fortogden.com/animbaby1.gif>
This baby is performing the "warm LL temps" dance :lol:

Whoa, I made a worthless post (hope I don't end up on someone's blog :o)...

Well, there hasn't been much weather at all this winter... I don't think there has even been a decent winter event, and we're already moving into FEB. So, I now look foward to chasing DMC again, and springtime :D
 
The rain/snow mix here shifted over to a period of all rain (temp was 33 here at the house) and then it shifted over to light sleet for quite awhile. It's just now switching back to snow, with still some light sleet mixed in. Moline has reported all snow the whole time, and they're only five miles to my west.

Still just a 1/4" in the grass here. The clusters of precip aren't very organized at all yet. I'm hoping this sytem gets organized a little quicker before the best lift is out of here.

This is a pretty tricky forecast. So many factors that have major impacts on who gets what for how long. 8)
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There are ALOT of stations reporting exactly 32F under areas of heavy precipitation (northern IL, parts of IA near Quad Cities). It almost makes me wonder if they have gone isothermal at 0C? There are a few reports of snow (near LOT) where 850MB are supposedly at 2-3C according to the RUC. That kind of worries me...
 
My winter storm summary product...

http://products.wiscwx.com/WINSPE

Updated my grids earlier...still lookin on track for a nice snowfall...at the very least the ugly brown grass should be covered again. My point forecast spat out 5 inches for Milwaukee so thats what I'll be expecting here at my house.

Edit: Snow just began to fall lightly about 15 minutes ago. Already have a dusting. Should pickup by 23Z.

Edit2: new md... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0074.html

...Alex Lamers...
 
Hmm... Latest 21Z RUC is about 1.5-2C colder at 850MB on the forecast sounding for my area than the previous two runs. It won't take much to significantly impact the forecast. It also nailed the isothermal layer (0C) at MDW near LOT.

This could have significant implications for areas downstream...
 
Up closer to 1/2" now. It's been snowing a little more consistantly. Lightning has entered far southeast IA, with a report of 3" of snow down at Fairfield.

Looking at the latest trends, I think the lightning activity will increase quite a bit over the next few hours. I'm hoping things pick up here before too long, as this event will be over for my area in about 8hrs.

I think the north and west side of Chicago may get the bullseye from this storm.
 
Almost 6 o'clock now. Still just under an inch. It has snowed moderately several times, but not for much more than a few minutes. Most of the time the snow is very light. Snow is accumulating very slowly so far.

Less than six hours of snow left. Unless the snowbands organize a little better, or we can at least get into a decent band for awhile, we'll have a tough time getting more than two inches here.

Lightning activity has totally ceased as well.

This storm is looking more and more to be yet another huge disappointment.
 
Almost 6 o'clock now. Still just under an inch. It has snowed moderately several times, but not for much more than a few minutes. Most of the time the snow is very light. Snow is accumulating very slowly so far.

Less than six hours of snow left. Unless the snowbands organize a little better, or we can at least get into a decent band for awhile, we'll have a tough time getting more than two inches here.

Lightning activity has totally ceased as well.
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Dry slotting working north and east into SRN IA from MO has been detrimental to precipitation and convection in SERN IA. This shows up well on the water vapor loop - bill
 
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