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1/20/06 - 1/21/06 - MIDWEST SNOWSTORM

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This is me doing the happy faces for warm low-level temps

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This baby is performing the "warm LL temps" dance :lol:

Whoa, I made a worthless post (hope I don't end up on someone's blog :eek:)...

Well, there hasn't been much weather at all this winter... I don't think there has even been a decent winter event, and we're already moving into FEB. So, I now look foward to chasing DMC again, and springtime :D
 
The rain/snow mix here shifted over to a period of all rain (temp was 33 here at the house) and then it shifted over to light sleet for quite awhile. It's just now switching back to snow, with still some light sleet mixed in. Moline has reported all snow the whole time, and they're only five miles to my west.

Still just a 1/4" in the grass here. The clusters of precip aren't very organized at all yet. I'm hoping this sytem gets organized a little quicker before the best lift is out of here.

This is a pretty tricky forecast. So many factors that have major impacts on who gets what for how long. 8)

There are ALOT of stations reporting exactly 32F under areas of heavy precipitation (northern IL, parts of IA near Quad Cities). It almost makes me wonder if they have gone isothermal at 0C? There are a few reports of snow (near LOT) where 850MB are supposedly at 2-3C according to the RUC. That kind of worries me...
 
My winter storm summary product...

http://products.wiscwx.com/WINSPE

Updated my grids earlier...still lookin on track for a nice snowfall...at the very least the ugly brown grass should be covered again. My point forecast spat out 5 inches for Milwaukee so thats what I'll be expecting here at my house.

Edit: Snow just began to fall lightly about 15 minutes ago. Already have a dusting. Should pickup by 23Z.

Edit2: new md... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0074.html

...Alex Lamers...
 
Hmm... Latest 21Z RUC is about 1.5-2C colder at 850MB on the forecast sounding for my area than the previous two runs. It won't take much to significantly impact the forecast. It also nailed the isothermal layer (0C) at MDW near LOT.

This could have significant implications for areas downstream...
 
Up closer to 1/2" now. It's been snowing a little more consistantly. Lightning has entered far southeast IA, with a report of 3" of snow down at Fairfield.

Looking at the latest trends, I think the lightning activity will increase quite a bit over the next few hours. I'm hoping things pick up here before too long, as this event will be over for my area in about 8hrs.

I think the north and west side of Chicago may get the bullseye from this storm.
 
Almost 6 o'clock now. Still just under an inch. It has snowed moderately several times, but not for much more than a few minutes. Most of the time the snow is very light. Snow is accumulating very slowly so far.

Less than six hours of snow left. Unless the snowbands organize a little better, or we can at least get into a decent band for awhile, we'll have a tough time getting more than two inches here.

Lightning activity has totally ceased as well.

This storm is looking more and more to be yet another huge disappointment.
 
Almost 6 o'clock now. Still just under an inch. It has snowed moderately several times, but not for much more than a few minutes. Most of the time the snow is very light. Snow is accumulating very slowly so far.

Less than six hours of snow left. Unless the snowbands organize a little better, or we can at least get into a decent band for awhile, we'll have a tough time getting more than two inches here.

Lightning activity has totally ceased as well.

Dry slotting working north and east into SRN IA from MO has been detrimental to precipitation and convection in SERN IA. This shows up well on the water vapor loop - bill
 
I think central MI (north of LAN) is getting hammered right now... Just looking at GRR's NEXRAD image, and the striations tell me that it's snow (or at least it looks like it). Reflectivies are on the order of +30DBz in the strongest bands.
 
It looked extreme but only was a sleet mix when coming through here... We're slushed on roads and 1/2-1" on the grass.
 
It looked extreme but only was a sleet mix when coming through here... We're slushed on roads and 1/2-1" on the grass.

My coordinates were a little misleading... I meant due north of LAN, like up in central lower MI... It appears to be all snow, and obs indicate such... But they are only indicating light snow (and the bands look more like MDT to HVY).

SFC temps have been coming down pretty quickly here... And believe it or not, my Td dropped from 30F to 28.5F... Could be an error though, since all other stations are reporting a Td above 32F.
 
We ended up with around 7-9" in DeKalb. I am going to guess it was snowing at about 2-3"/hr between 7-9:30 pm. No lightning.

Oh what fun to shovel ...
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Cats watching the snow.
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Our biggest snow storm this winter ... a day after a record high!
 
I'm expecting about 4" of white cement by midnight tonight here. Maybe a bit more if we're actually lucky enough to get thunder. I hope we don't get screwed however, getting caught between intense bands for long periods of time etc.


Gee what a surprise, that's EXACTLY what happened. LMAO! It never ends..
 
I'm liking all these reports guys. My grids were nearly PERFECT. Yum...thats what a forecaster likes. I said 5 inches here at my house and I wound up with 5.3 inches.

Woo hoo! Nearly warning crit snow and nailed my forecast. Couldn't be happier. :) :D

...Alex Lamers...
 
Sweet, another winter weather event we have been spared!
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Time to start dancing!!
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There is a monster snowfall outside... Nearly 10" inches... Psych! Okay, now... Time to go find the elusive MI tornado... BBL... I'm thinking of chasing air pollution tomorrow. Maybe I'll get a snowy, sewage/McD's wrapper spinup.
 
Yep, about 1.5 inches of snow here after about 0.75 inches of rain. If it isn't going to snow or freezing rain, I'd just as soon have a sunny day...

Back to the boring ol' non-event winter... If we can't even get dynamic systems to develop in winter time, just wait 'til spring when the eastern half of the US is locked into a barotropic environment! Yippy!

I'm thinking of hibernating for the next 12 months, wake me up in 2007 when we can get some REAL weather (hopefully)...

Otherwise, heres to the Dustbowl of 2006...
 
Thanks for rubbing it in Marko!! :p


Nice pictures by the way. :wink:



Looking ahead, it looks like we're settling into a pretty quiet weather pattern again.

It's very tough when you're a weather enthusiast this time of year to watch storm after storm pass by; and then when it looks like you will finally get in on some of the action, watch areas two counties away get nailed.

I will say this though....when we finally get "nailed" by the big one, it's going to be that much better... 8)
 
Thanks for rubbing it in Marko!! :p


Nice pictures by the way. :wink:



Looking ahead, it looks like we're settling into a pretty quiet weather pattern again.

It's very tough when you're a weather enthusiast this time of year to watch storm after storm pass by; and then when it looks like you will finally get in on some of the action, watch areas two counties away get nailed.

I will say this though....when we finally get "nailed" by the big one, it's going to be that much better... 8)

Yeah, I can't complain TOO much... This will your your second winter without anything good. Last winter was a snow-fest for us with just over 100 inches for the year.
 
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