1/12/07-1/15/06 NOW:OK/KS/MO/IA/IL/IN/MI (Winter Precip)

[Robert Dewey]

Decided to switch over to the NOW thread since things are finally taking shape... ZR is falling with 0.10 inches of accumulation since yesterday morning.

Latest 12Z NAM moves this area off to the east in time for the next system to develop. Storm total QPF is up around 1.25 inches for my area - 850MB T's hang around 0C or slightly above for most of the event for southeast MI. Don't have soundings handy, so I can't see the depth of the warm layer, but NAM precip algorithm shows ZR. We'll be seeing a nice northeasterly fetch of cold air with SFC T's steady in the upper 20's.

If we kick over to snow, I would imagine it would be pretty wet given the location of the R/SN line... Using the "basic" 10 to 1 ratio would yield 8-10 inches of snow.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I have a feeling this is going to be a pretty significant ice storm for the southeast MI area judging by the latest 12Z NAM/NGM/GEM. Making a run right now to get gas for our generators - our power goes out at the drop of a hat.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

as of 1445z, the CG rate is on the order of 70 per 15 mins with the storms in Oklahoma. I doubt that I've seen such an impressive organization of deep moist convection above surface temperatures in the lower 20s as what's going on now in the OKC area. Wow! Looking forward to seeing the reports from the contingent down there.. 12z OUN sounding this morning showed coldest temp -8C at about 400m AGL. Warm layer max was around +8C at 800m AGL.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Heavier precipitation here in MI fell in the form of IP with some -ZR mixed in. It's now back to mostly -ZR...

Watching the stuff on the Southern Plains as the system develops - that's where the brunt of precipitation will come from with an additional +1.00 of QPF expected.

WSW expanded northward by GRR/DTX, APX still considering... Looks like areas from I69 northward, I expect all snow with 8-12 inches... From I69 to FNT, I expect +SN/IP with some ZR... From FNT to PTK, I expect +ZR/IP, and from PTK to DTW I expect +ZR. South of DTW will be tricky, because this storm has been trending northward with each model run... It could end up being mostly rain along the OH/MI state line.

 

[Joel Wright]

We've been getting intermittent light freezing rain and sleet over the last few days. It's been so infrequent however, that much of it has sublimated away. I have yet to see a single snowflake, which concerns me a bit for our snow forecast.

We're expecting a quick 4-6" of heavy wet snow here this evening if we can switch to all snow, so I'll try to post a few pictures if anything interesting happens.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Moderate snow with visibilities to .4 to .5 mile here in KSUX. Snow has gone from fine powder to behemoth flakes about 1/4" in diameter. Snow is falling moderate to heavy at this time with already 1 t0 2" of snow on the ground at KSUX. Snow is continuing to rapidly develop in this area. Am expecting accumulations greater than 6" now and anticipating NWS to upgrade to a warning for these regions.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Snowing lightly in Lincoln NE however its not taking much at all for the snow to pile up, light snow and very small flakes are still producing snow rates near 1 in/hr. Appears the area in SE NE and even SW IA will see this one moderate band of snow early this afternoon until an area of drier air works it's way over the area and cuts off the snow, it appears the heavisest band this afternoon is setting up over the area between Columbus and Norfolk NE working ENE up towards the Storm Lake IA area.

 

[cedwards]

It was interesting to watch as we had a brief period of freezing rain, the release of latent heat increased the air temperature to 30 degrees. The temp went back down after the precip ended.

 

[Robert Dewey]

The ground surfaces have cleaned out nicely due to the relatively warmer ground temperatures and sublimation... Power lines, trees, and other elevated surfaces still have a coating of around 0.10 inches.

18Z NAM pumps out 0.75 to 1.00 inches of additional ZR over a 6 hour period tonight, with a few tenths of an inch on either side of that 'window'. On top of what we already have, I would bet on storm total ice accumulations of 0.50 to 1.50 inches in isolated convective areas. That's subject to pretty big changes depending on the amount of SN/IP mixing in, and how soon the changover to snow occurs, and whether or not the NAM is even correct.

 

[Dal Archer]

Here in NE OK it is an absolute mess. Around the Tulsa area we have had primarily sleet along with some freezing rain and the roads are absolutely horrific. However, to the SE around Muskogee & McAlester, power lines are down everywhere, trees are bowed to the ground and shelters are opening up rapidly.

Most local programming is being pre-empted quite frequently for storm updates, etc. For those of you to the North and East of us, believe the hype. This storm is really incredible. Be prepared to batten down the hatches.......

 

[Jeff Miller]

Update for KSUX:

3-4" widespread snowfall accumulations in Sioux City with latest obs showing heavy snow and .25 visibilities. Went out to confirm and indeed, heavy snow. Winds are starting to pick up now causing some blowing and drifting. KSUX is on the northern fringe of the dry slot which is filling in again so dont think KSUX will see the dry slot much at all here. A new batch of moderate snow forming to the southwest to keep things going for a while. Quite a snow event here for sure!

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Snow began here just after Noon today, only flurries at that time before it finally picked up and visibilities dropped to less than a mile just before 1 PM. Been snowing lightly to moderately at times over the past 2 hours and we've accumulated just under 2 inches of snow...

I'm posting frequent updates on my blog, http://www.stormcenterusa.com/blog

 

[Jeff Miller]

Interesting - a burst of snow pellets is falling here at KSUX. Kind of unusual since snow pellets are usually found at temperatures at or around 32F... but indeed, they are snow pellets. Most of the day it has been classic snow crystals so this is kind of interesting.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Moderate snow here currently in North Central IA with about 2 to 2.5 inches on the ground currently. Winter Storm Warning out for area and of course stating the heaviest snows will be in this area as it appears 6 to 9 inches likely.

 

[Joel Wright]

Freezing rain and sleet falling pretty heavily here the last hour. I'd say sleet is the dominant precip type however. With upstream areas still in freezing rain and sleet it's now looking like we won't see very much snow, if any. Interesting mini ice storm however.