Jason A.C. Brock
Nobody has a thread started for today as im sure alot are still coming hoe from chasing and have been busy. My forecast isa bit off the general areas that may be in the main action today however.
I will be looking toward the Childress Turkey Tx area for the triple point. I kow a very stout cap will be in place and not alot of forcing however extreme heating may get a supercell going in this area late afternoon early evening. 4k WRF simulated radar shows cells popping in that area and convective temp on NAM loks to be 103...best cape 1200 but thats doable and i bet if the dews are in the 60s it will end up being more like 2500...unless we see some drier air like we saw today as the dew dropped to 55 but by 10 pm was back to 63. The high yesterday however in Childress was 103 with agitated CU in that area and a few showers did try to go in teh Eastern TX panhandle so its not out of the question. i would be better off going to the Wichita KS Ponca City OK area im sure but at least I wont have to deal with chaser hordes ;-). I doubt the tornado potential will be very good in the Childress area with such a high temp dew spread and storms may be elevated....especially early.....but slow storm motion and the isolated nature of the cells may make for some very photogenic storms with nice structure shots and perhaps some late evening lightning chances.
Then again he cap may hold and it may be a clear hot sky bust but chances improve in Western North Texas and South Central and SW OK the next few days as front sags South at least for some severe convection if nothing else. This may be the last real semi chaseable setup for this area for the year as next week seems to feature NW flow which usually brings this area nocturnal MCS activity then summer sets in hard core....it was 102 here today
....but I seem to get most of my good lightning pics during those events around 12-4am here in Wichita Falls.
The convective temp for the Falls tomorrow for those interested is 111 lol. I may mke a last minute gasp for Ponca City today but I doubt it. Actually looking at it Ponca City doesnt have much better supercell potentiual than Childress...but convetive temp is 94 best cape 1400.
Maybe Childress will pop today.....I had picked Salina as a virtual target yesterday and knew I should have went but oh well. I also a thougth a cell might pop near Beaver OK tho and it didnt.....but it sure did try....;-)
GOod luck to all today
I will be looking toward the Childress Turkey Tx area for the triple point. I kow a very stout cap will be in place and not alot of forcing however extreme heating may get a supercell going in this area late afternoon early evening. 4k WRF simulated radar shows cells popping in that area and convective temp on NAM loks to be 103...best cape 1200 but thats doable and i bet if the dews are in the 60s it will end up being more like 2500...unless we see some drier air like we saw today as the dew dropped to 55 but by 10 pm was back to 63. The high yesterday however in Childress was 103 with agitated CU in that area and a few showers did try to go in teh Eastern TX panhandle so its not out of the question. i would be better off going to the Wichita KS Ponca City OK area im sure but at least I wont have to deal with chaser hordes ;-). I doubt the tornado potential will be very good in the Childress area with such a high temp dew spread and storms may be elevated....especially early.....but slow storm motion and the isolated nature of the cells may make for some very photogenic storms with nice structure shots and perhaps some late evening lightning chances.
Then again he cap may hold and it may be a clear hot sky bust but chances improve in Western North Texas and South Central and SW OK the next few days as front sags South at least for some severe convection if nothing else. This may be the last real semi chaseable setup for this area for the year as next week seems to feature NW flow which usually brings this area nocturnal MCS activity then summer sets in hard core....it was 102 here today
....but I seem to get most of my good lightning pics during those events around 12-4am here in Wichita Falls.The convective temp for the Falls tomorrow for those interested is 111 lol. I may mke a last minute gasp for Ponca City today but I doubt it. Actually looking at it Ponca City doesnt have much better supercell potentiual than Childress...but convetive temp is 94 best cape 1400.
Maybe Childress will pop today.....I had picked Salina as a virtual target yesterday and knew I should have went but oh well. I also a thougth a cell might pop near Beaver OK tho and it didnt.....but it sure did try....;-)
GOod luck to all today
