Philip Flory
EF2
It appears that way on radar out of HGX too.
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09L: Hurricane Ike
- Thread starter Greg Blumberg
- Start date
It appears that way on radar out of HGX too.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
My "wobble-watching" instincts are often fooled by radar data at times. I think it's very difficult in situations when the eyewall is rapidly evolving, such as seems to be the case attm. There are all sorts of reflectivity 'tags' that I can use to imagine the flow around the center, and it's often been quite tricky.
It does look like Ike is finally trying to intensify, with the emergence of an inner eye seen from KHGX radar. In addition, the latest satellite imagery support the idea of an eye nearly closed off (~35-40 miles in dia.), surrounded 1/2 of the way around by very cold cloud tops (colder than -80C). RECON is still a little ways off, but it may find 115 mph storm. Outflow looks very nice to the N of the storm (amongst other areas), with that "scalloped" appearance that I've seen from intensifying storms before. History would support that Ike's lumbering size may inhibit intensification, though; Ike has looked like it's ready to intensify for a couple of days now.
Curfew now in place for the mandatory evacuation areas from 7 pm to 6 am Friday night - Sat morning and again Sat night - Sun morning. I don't know how that affects the chasers out there, but the Houston mayor certainly sounded very serious about enforcing it.
What's the best guess on total (insured+uninsured, or total estimated as 2 x insured losses) losses? I heard one privat ecompany estimate ~$7 billion, but that seems very low IMO. Seems to have the potential to be a Top 5 storm in terms of total losses in $.
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Tim Vasquez
EF5
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2003
- Messages
- 3,411
Elevation of the street at the jail location, according to USGS maps is 4 ft MSL.
Tim
Tim
Scott Olson
EF5
Reconnsiance Aircraft Mission 33 is turning back towards the eyewall and will probably have some more data in the next half hour. It's first leg through the eyewall found once again 955mb. Which has been a pretty steady average all day long. There has been an eye now for several hours, a rather large and somewhat disorganized but certainly looking a bit more concentric. KHGX and vortex data showed this to be around 60nm at 21z but based on KHGX it's looking more like 45nm. Still the winds are sampling less than this morning.
She is in the eye, lowest extrapolated pressure of the day just came through 952mb.
She is in the eye, lowest extrapolated pressure of the day just came through 952mb.
Mike Hollingshead
Someone on MSNBC at a press conference was saying it was estimated in the 70s of billions yesterday, and up to $81B today. Then said something about it will probably be $100B tomorrow. Not sure what that was from exactly.
Chris Hayes
EF5
With the deepening and cooling cloud tops, and the better eye now visible on IR satelite, Ike seems to be going under a last burst of intensification before landfall. A little while ago I was wondering if it were decreasing in intensity. Doesnt seem that way. Could have a Cat 3 at landfall.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
I wonder if the TX coast will have as hard a time getting insurance after this storm as Florida did after the barrage of storms over the past 5 years.
Ryan Orlando
EF0
I'm looking at the long range reflectivity from KHGX and noticing that after "stalling" for a little under an hour that it appears to be moving toward the north. Can anyone else confirm this and tell if this is a shift in the track of Ike or not? Thanks in advance.
MClarkson
EF5
That is most likely the eyewall organazing. That tends to briefly make the hurricane appear to be making a jog in some direction.
Tim Vasquez
EF5
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2003
- Messages
- 3,411
A couple of pages back I mentioned the problems with trying to interpret movement at >100 miles. I got suckered by Gustav into thinking it was steering towards New Orleans. I'm now hesitant to use radar at long range to estimate movement. Certainly it has a lot of value for assessing trends in convective intensity, though. As it comes further into the 100 nm range this evening, I'll be more confident in using radar to figure the track.
Tim
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
KHOU is reporting unconfirmed reports that people are trapped on their roofs at Crystal Beach. 18 people in total; 3 trapped atop Seaside Lumber, and 15 trapped in the church across the street. Reports are that the 15 trapped at the church have tied themselves together.
Darren Stephens
When should the maximum storm surge be expected in Galveston?
rdale
EF5
Per HLSHGX:
TIDE LEVELS LEVELED OFF BRIEFLY AS THE ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES BEGAN
BUT AS THE WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VERY LARGE EYE
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER
LEVELS SHOULD BE PEAKING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE STORM
SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE
LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS
IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET
MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
TIDE LEVELS LEVELED OFF BRIEFLY AS THE ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES BEGAN
BUT AS THE WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VERY LARGE EYE
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER
LEVELS SHOULD BE PEAKING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE STORM
SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE
LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS
IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET
MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MClarkson
EF5
well, Crystal beach is about to get wiped out... of all the places to be that is about the worst.
Scott Overpeck
Surge to peak on Galveston Is between 10pm and 4am tonight per last SLOSH model run.
I hope all of you that are chasing this thing really have a safe place to be. I was able to get some sleep but I have a long night ahead for the mid shift.
Just so you know...starting to get near hurricane force winds on the island. North Jetty at one point reported 60 kts.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ports_screens/hgscreen.shtml
