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09L: Hurricane Ike

No obtuseness here... If you expect TV news guys to stay on the air for days straight and never say a sentence that doesn't make the best of sense, you expect too much. If he says "Hey, don't leave yet, you have 13 hours" then I see an issue. I don't in this case.

What does it matter now? Most of those who were going to evacuate already have. The others will have to stay behind and make the best of it. I do see a potentially high fatality count following this storm. Despite not knowing how many people evacuated Galveston, I'm sure many of them who have lived there long enough feel that this is just like any other hurricane, and don't see the urgency of the situation.
 
Looks like that SW side remains open and the cold cloud tops are trying to wrap around with little success. I could do without any rapid intensification at this point.

On a bright note, my neighborhood has turned into an ice distribution center because of a local refrigeration company down the street. Nice to know ice is handy right now...

Most people in the loop seem pretty calm, but are busy boarding up and getting supplies. Gas is still readily available; I filled both my vehicles up for $3.49 less than a mile from my house.
 
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Surf Side Beach has 5 to 7 feet surge now and still rising. I hope everyone evacuated. I think based on the storm surge even without the strong winds, Ike will cause a lot of damage. For those leaving today, I wish you well as you travel. For those deciding to stay, good luck. I pray for your safety.
 
So whats Geraldo doing..? Standing in the water on the wall as waves rush in and he falls down...lol

Still impressive video at this point..

Anyway..this will answer the question does Size matter ? Can a Cat 2 larger in size then a 3 or even 4 inflict more damage ? In this case its all about Storm surge..


Edit: You beat me to the comment...lol
 
No obtuseness here...
I disagree. You are now attempting to shift attention from your original question:
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Just to be very clear: Why yes. Yes I am.

The time frame for many of his listeners has little to do with the time of landfall, but on the state of their escape routes.
 
Is anybody watching that shaky fixed cam along the seawall they keep showing on most of the live feeds? Looks like almost every wave is making it over the wall.
 
IMO it looks like there is a decent shot that this thing will make landfall to the NE of the Galveston bay area, its going to be to close to call until the last minute, but there is a decent shot that the worst surge may end up being to the NE of the Galveston area...
 
IMO it looks like there is a decent shot that this thing will make landfall to the NE of the Galveston bay area, its going to be to close to call until the last minute, but there is a decent shot that the worst surge may end up being to the NE of the Galveston area...

For Galveston's sake I'm not sure it will matter. If the storm makes a last minute turn to the right the surge won't know it. Maybe they won't get the record for the storm, but its not going to be zero.
 
It's possible, but the majority of the models are staying with landfall south of Galveston Island. The majority of those that have Ike north have incorrectly foreseen Ike's path (it is already/currently south of their earlier predictions).

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Reminder that XM Radio has coverage on channel 247, and DirectTV has KHOU on Ch 361 (I _LOVE_ that addition this season! Now if they'll do that during big tornado days in the future???)
 
Ike-a-rumba! (sorry, lol) Last satellite frames are saying Ike does indeed want to pinch that sucker off into a nice eye(or maybe I should say, it suggest it may want to....canes can want, right?). The convective plume did make its way around the north side(and now west even), and new convection can be seen trying to pop in the open part on the sw side.

Pisses me off I missed Geraldo getting knocked down. I was watching for it earlier, with hopes I could watch him get sucked out to sea.
 
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I agree, Mike. The visible sat. imagery shows Ike as symmetrical as it has appeared YET with three arms now curving into a more sharply defined eye. This thing is starting to remind me of an ice skater who begins to spin faster and faster as she pulls her arms in closer.

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