rdale
EF5
Nothing noted about an eye in the 11am update, just looks like they tweaked down intensity forecasts and kept similar path.
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09L: Hurricane Ike
- Thread starter Greg Blumberg
- Start date
HAltschule
EF5
ABC13 in Houston is showing live video of homes in Surfside, TX with waves and storm surge that is reaching as high as the top of 1st floor windows and the waves are slamming into the siding and the windows themsleves. Big trouble!!
Chad Ringley
EF2
Doesn't look like dry air. Those really cold cloud tops in the eastern semicircle make me wonder if it's trying to redevelop the inner core.
Darren Addy
EF5
I wonder if the Galveston sea wall builders considered how it would trap any floodwaters (that got past it) — keeping them from receding in as timely a manner? This is going to be an epic disaster, particularly if the eye landfall remains south of Galveston (as expected).
Marc Austin
EF4
Can anyone recall storm surge affecting an area ahead of a storm this far in advance of actual landfall? I know this was to be expected, but it just seems so surreal. Not sure what to make of the "eye" feature. although it looks a bit too symmetric to simply be a dry air wedge.
HAltschule
EF5
Dr. Ed Rappaport at NHC just appeared live on ABC13 in Houston. He said he is expecting this hurricane to bring a bigger storm surge to this area than any other storm they've experienced in over 50 years. He also said the current surge height is about 6 feet and he is expecting a 20-21 storm surge with 20 + foot waves on top of the storm surge. He compared this storm surge situation to Katrina and expects a similar situation. THAT is bad news!!
Tim Marshall
EF2
Storm surge generally preceeds the strongest winds in a hurricane. It is a gradual rise, not the wall of water some think, that will catch some people off guard. I've seen this many times. HOU-TV video showed people evacuating the west end on Galveston Island this morning having to traverse through roads already covered with seawater. As for me, I plan to leave for the Texas City area within the hour and plan to stay above water -behind the dike there. I think Galveston will become submerged (some of it already has) and all those folks out there will be stranded for quite some time. My plan is to return safely to Dallas tomorrow. TM
Justin Turcotte
EF5
He also made note an eye wall may be trying to finally pinch off. This is probably a moot point at this stage however.
Brandon Clement
EF4
I-45 and 61st street on the island...
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/l...ulf_at_61ST_(W)
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/l...ulf_at_61ST_(W)
Darren Addy
EF5
As always, the local TV commentators are not the brightest bulbs and they do the public a disservice with their misinformed statements. That Channel 13 reporter just said that since the surge is still 13-14 hours away people have "plenty of time" to get out "if they want to".
Ed Boik
EF1
Hypothetically, If Ike finds a way to establish a strong core and defined eye, it could result in explosive strengthening in or near the core and cause a pressure fall like no other. (Assuming a concentration of energy at the core develops.) There would be a double whammy of an incredible, wide-spread surge followed by very high winds.
Just a thought.
Just a thought.
Darren Addy
EF5
Just grabbed this off of a live video feed. What's the chance of houses on stilts surviving a 15-20 foot surge?
Anything that comes loose becomes a surge-directed projectile (similar to the debris load of a tornado).
Anything that comes loose becomes a surge-directed projectile (similar to the debris load of a tornado).
rdale
EF5
Help me out with the problem... Are you saying 13 hours is NOT enough time to evacuate? I think it makes sense for people who thought they could stay behind to leave now.
Mike Peregrine
EF5
Satellite is definitely not impressive this morning. Lots of ragged, jagged features and still no clear eye. I've noticed what looks like lots of dry air working its way into the storm for the last day or so. Not to say that some strengthening isn't possible between now and landfall, but definitely not as impressive as the last couple days, as compared here. Wind doesn't look to be the issue with this storm. Not nearly as much as the threat from water.
And the whole "certain death" phrase is played. Someone needs to kill it.
And the whole "certain death" phrase is played. Someone needs to kill it.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
13 hours is not enough time because they don't have 13 hours. The waters have nearly cut off many areas already, and people who need to leave don't have "plenty of time", they have very, very little time, after which they will be trapped and their survival will be dependent on their ability to stay afloat in seas with 25 foot waves and whether they drift out to sea or are slammed back into shore.
