09L: Hurricane Ike

[rdale]

But for the areas that aren't cut off yet - wouldn't it make sense to evacuate? There are a lot of "mandatory" evacuation zones in Houston that barely have wet streets, yet people haven't left, so I'd think it'd be better to suggest that they really need to leave versus tell them "it's too late" when nothing is blocking their way out.

I'm still not seeing an eye develop, I'm on the side of that just being some dry air that got sucked in.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

To me the thing looks like it has the most potential right now since leaving Cuba. The convection closest to the center is as thick as it has been since before leaving Cuba. Seems like it is a click away from pinching off into a beast.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

The WV imagery is impressive to say the least on the eastern side of Ike..
Definitely had issues with its eyewall but its convection is strong.
The Wave action is impressive already though so should be quite a sight as it moves in..

Listening to Jim Cantore on TWC is entertaining. The guy certainly knows how to grab attention of his audience. He may get a little dramatic but I like listening to him more then the others.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

And the whole "certain death" phrase is played. Someone needs to kill it.

Why? The people whom the weather service are talking about are almost certainly going to die. At least nobody will be able to accuse them of not giving people adequate warning when history looks back at how all this went down. When you hear some of the reports of the numbers of people who have chosen to ride the storm out along the coast, I would think there is a very good chance that the fatalities for this storm along the Texas coast will exceed 100. It may well exceed 1000 if the water overtops the Galveston seawall as the weather service believes it will.

 

[rdale]

They are also playing that for parts of Houston - so that's an AWFUL lot of people they are saying are "certain" to die... It needs to be "fine tuned" a bit maybe.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

But for the areas that aren't cut off yet - wouldn't it make sense to evacuate? There are a lot of "mandatory" evacuation zones in Houston that barely have wet streets, yet people haven't left, so I'd think it'd be better to suggest that they really need to leave versus tell them "it's too late" when nothing is blocking their way out.

I'm still not seeing an eye develop, I'm on the side of that just being some dry air that got sucked in.

Yes, that's true -- it makes a lot of sense to evacuate. I think what I would say if I was on TV (and what most of the stations and the NWS are saying in their media calls) is "GET OUT NOW, you don't have much time, very soon you will be trapped and if you are you will probably die, so drop what you are doing, get in your car, and get out now." I would definitely not tell viewers they have plenty of time to get out. That encourages a "lets wait and see how bad this gets" attitude, which at this point will be fatal.

 

[rdale]

Much happier with how NWS Houston words it now... Little less hype, but still VERY powerful language:

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF DEATH.
MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL
BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE
IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT
AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY
THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF.
WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION.
DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

 

[Darren Addy]

But for the areas that aren't cut off yet - wouldn't it make sense to evacuate? There are a lot of "mandatory" evacuation zones in Houston that barely have wet streets, yet people haven't left, so I'd think it'd be better to suggest that they really need to leave versus tell them "it's too late" when nothing is blocking their way out.

I'm still not seeing an eye develop, I'm on the side of that just being some dry air that got sucked in.

Nobody is saying not to get out now, if you can. The stupidity of the statement is in telling people they have 13 hours to think about it. If your house was on fire, would you be telling the kids they have until the flames reach their room to get out?

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Nevermind, I think it is still suck in the coil deal, lol. Something needs to close off its "rear inflow jet", slicing in from the sw. Can see that area starting to coil up again in where the eye should be.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Phraseology like "certain death" does not help the public take action, IMO. We do not issue 'certain death' warnings for tornadoes or severe storms, even though for those living in the path who do not take appropriate protective action, it would usually mean that their lives are put in jeopardy. People living in the path of any hurricane, no matter how intense, need to just get out. It's not up to us to hold their hands or talk them in to it. If they want to be stupid, it's their life and their loss.

 

[Darren Addy]

I think one of the great points that the Integrated Kinetic Energy paper had to make was on the subject of human's Risk Perception:

If you want to stay alive, your perception of a given danger must be that it is at least as dangerous as it in fact is. Perceiving something as less dangerous than it is a mistake and possibly a fatal one.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

They are also playing that for parts of Houston - so that's an AWFUL lot of people they are saying are "certain" to die... It needs to be "fine tuned" a bit maybe.

Well, that's true, the message may be fine tuned. However, if you glance at the surge map that NOAA provides, you will see that an awful lot of people ARE certain to die if they stick around for a 20 foot surge:

I don't think people will understand the full magnitude of what this storm is going to do until the reports start coming in on Sunday. And not just to Houston, to the entire North Texas coast and for the southwest Louisiana coast -- especially Lake Charles.

 

[Darren Addy]

I don't think viewers saw all the coverage and said "well, the house is on fire, but the TV news guy said we don't have to leave until tonight because the flames aren't into my room yet."

Give Texans a little bit of credit...

It's not Texans that we are questioning here. It is the TV news guy that I am faulting because he is giving the wrong impression. He's responsible for the information he provides, particularly because it is his job to properly inform the public. I'm not sure why you are being so obtuse here.

 

[rdale]

No obtuseness here... If you expect TV news guys to stay on the air for days straight and never say a sentence that doesn't make the best of sense, you expect too much. If he says "Hey, don't leave yet, you have 13 hours" then I see an issue. I don't in this case.

 

[Ed Boik]

To me the thing looks like it has the most potential right now since leaving Cuba. The convection closest to the center is as thick as it has been since before leaving Cuba. Seems like it is a click away from pinching off into a beast.

It's still the most ugly looking and unnatural Cat 2 I've ever seen. What a weird storm.