09L: Hurricane Ike

[Warren Faidley]

After being on the scene, here are my personal observations about a landfall near Galveston, if indeed we end up in the NE eyewall.

1: A fair number of people here are not taking the storm as serious as they should. Some of the local media are making misleading comments, "That based on satellite images, the storm is weakening." (Or something similar to that). Not a good thing to be doing.

2: If Ike does intensify and ends up producing a storm surge that overtakes the sea wall, or strikes nearby areas w/o a sea wall, there is going to be mass destruction and and likely fatalities. Case in point, the motel I am in. I can guarantee you that I will be getting up every few hours and taking a peak out the 2nd. floor window. It's unnerving to be less than 100 yards from the boiling Gulf!

Its going to be an interesting 48 hours.

Warren

 

[Heidi Farrar]

Forgive the OT, but this might be a good time to review the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (91 minute Google Video). (Book version: Isaac's Storm.) If nothing else, it is a great lesson in how far we/meteorology have/has come in 108 years. ... (later)... Ike now has a northern "arm" that reaches clear back east of the BAHAMAS. This is the most incredible storm I have ever seen. - Darren Addy

Waves coming over a pier on the west side -- doubt the pier will last ... Hard to believe the water is this high already... - Warren Faidley

...locals keep telling me that they've never seen the ocean this whipped up 36 hours before a hurricane. -George Kourounis

Ship report located about 70 miles south of Pensacola, FL reported 30 Foot Waves at 7pm EDT. - HAltschule

My husband did read Isaac's storm a couple of months ago. This evening I have been updating him on the status of Ike, and reading the various quotes in this thread to him. He was greatly affected by what he calls the "human foibles" that lead up to the catastrophic loss of life (which is essentially what the book is about), but that not withstanding, he is seeing a lot of similarities between Ike's "freakish" stats combined with what on-site observers are posting about this storm and what he read about the approach of the 1900 hurricane. Lacking today's sophisticated instrument data (obviously), "field reports" are really all that is known, since apparently the instruments that were located on-shore were lost during either the wind or surge. 30 ft. waves off of Pensacola is a pretty significant field report, and similar to what was reported back in 1900 prior to that storm making landfall, but was "dismissed."

 

[Darren Addy]

The satellite presentation sure went ugly on the last couple of ticks. It looks a bad retread tire throwing a big piece on the SE. Will be very interested in what the forecast discussion has to say at the top of the hour.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

After being on the scene, here are my personal observations about a landfall near Galveston, if indeed we end up in the NE eyewall.

1: A fair number of people here are not taking the storm as serious as they should. Some of the local media are making misleading comments, "That based on satellite images, the storm is weakening." (Or something similar to that). Not a good thing to be doing.

2: If Ike does intensify and ends up producing a storm surge that overtakes the sea wall, or strikes nearby areas w/o a sea wall, there is going to be mass destruction and and likely fatalities. Case in point, the motel I am in. I can guarantee you that I will be getting up every few hours and taking a peak out the 2nd. floor window. It's unnerving to be less than 100 yards from the boiling Gulf!

Its going to be an interesting 48 hours.

Warren

My opinion is that it is hard to judge what the locals are doing wrong when they see all the outsiders and media lingering around, filming, doing news spots, and checking into motels right on the coast. Sort of reminds me of the comments about chaser convergence. If they see so many people doing this, they could very possibly feel it may be OK to stay and witness what they see someone else doing.
Getting up every few hours to see what a surge is doing is probably placing yourself in these same dangers you are speaking of. I would think you would know that a surge can rise dangerously fast "every few hours."

The national news stations are placing serious emphasis on this storm and some city officials have stated some very harsh warnings.

 

[Philip Flory]

The satellite presentation sure went ugly on the last couple of ticks. It looks a bad retread tire throwing a big piece on the SE. Will be very interested in what the forecast discussion has to say at the top of the hour.

Dry air is really coming in NW of the center. It also is wobbling back to the W on the last few images too. Man, the storm is huge though.. it's no doubt storm surge is the main threat right now.

 

[Marc Austin]

The satellite presentation sure went ugly on the last couple of ticks. It looks a bad retread tire throwing a big piece on the SE. Will be very interested in what the forecast discussion has to say at the top of the hour.

Overall symmetry doesn't appear that great, but some colder cloud tops are appearing both over the center and in a large convective band north of the center. Not sure what to make of it. Everyone keeps saying the storm will strengthen, but we have yet to see significant strengthening. Only time will tell...

 

[Ryan Orlando]

Newest advisory still has it at 100 MPH like most people around here were thinking. You can definitely see the dry air at the NW side on the water vapor imagery. They only expect it to be a CAT 2 when it makes landfall on the upper coast of Texas. I have seen the westward job that someone has mentioned. It may be a difference in impacts but that will be a wait and see. Rain and storm surge will be the biggest factor in this storm.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Yeah its structure seems to be expanding even more rather then winding up..at least it looks that way on WV loops..NHC says should be a 2. But apparently wind wasn't the main issue here anyway but the storm surge and wave action due to the immense size of Ike.
An interesting storm indeed in terms of forecasting intensity,structure and even track..

 

[Darren Addy]

Forecast track moved slightly left, which (if it verifies) means no apparent reprieve for Galveston/Houston. Wording sounding much more pessimistic about intensification. At 10 MPH it has close to 40 hours before the true center of the storm is over land.

Note that at high tide, storm surge would only need to be 15 ft. to match the top of the Galveston sea wall:

I don't know if you can call what Ike is starting now another Eye Wall Replacement Cycle or what, but there is still a chance it completes it in time to intensify just before landfall. Las Vegas odds are turning against it, however.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Ready for it here at home inside the loop in Houston. For us, wind is our main concern. I told everyone I came into contact with today who were on the border about leaving, and who lived very near the bay (in mandatory evacuation zones) to get out now. I hope Galveston is somehow spared with a last minute wobble, because that water is coming.

 

[MClarkson]

I wonder if there is such this as max potential Integrated Kinetic Energy? Ikes at the top of that list. Chad is right. That surge is coming. Its inevitable now.

 

[Darren Addy]

Crikey. Take a look at this last frame of the visible satellite loop and tell me it doesn't look like Ike is attempting a split. Looks like a clear slot starting on the south. Tell Warren and the boys to take the right mover!

Shortwave image (03:15 UTC) resembles a split starting, too:

I must be getting loopy. I read the Galveston NWS forecast for Friday night and I hear it being read in George Carlin's bored Hippy Dippy Weatherman voice:

Friday Night
Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows around 80. Inland...northeast winds 50 to 65 mph with gusts to around 85 mph in the evening becoming northwest and increasing to 65 to 85 mph with gusts to around 105 mph after midnight. Coast...northeast winds 65 to 85 mph with gusts to around 110 mph in the evening becoming south and increasing to 75 to 95 mph with gusts to around 125 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent in the evening increasing to near 100 percent after midnight.

 

[Chad Ringley]

I wonder if there is such this as max potential Integrated Kinetic Energy? Ikes at the top of that list. Chad is right. That surge is coming. Its inevitable now.

There is, and I had a good friend of mine at NC State call me today and as of 18 UTC, the integrated KE for Ike was larger than that of Katrina.

About to try and get some sleep for the night (though I bet I'll be up checking the 4am advisory). Another deep burst of convection around the center.

I get one of those feelings like...the track "feels" stable and converged...the storm seems to be in a "steady-state" of intensity...but something isn't right. I have a feeling that Ike has a surprise for us tomorrow...not sure if its good or bad.

 

[rdale]

I'm going to assume it's impossible for hurricanes to split... Looks like a nice blob of convection that isn't wrapping around the eye.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Man, that rapid expansion of outflow in the western Gulf is pretty impressive. With the rate that is going, the outflow from Ike is going to cover the entire GoM in several hours! Cloud tops are now cooling again and it looks like convection near the center is on the rise. I've read some posts that conjecture that any convection still within the outer wind maxima will do lilttle to aid intensification since any appreciable intensification will come when a single (outer) eyewall dominates and contracts down to a more typical size -- such logic makes sense to me.

Are there even times when an INNER eyewall winds the "battle of the eyewalls"? I understand normal ERCs, but Ike has had multiple wind-maxima for a couple (to several?) days now, which seems rather odd.

I continue to think that the major headline for Ike will be the surge. I also have a hard time believing that it will have no strengthened much at all since leaving Cuba if it doens't do so by landfall. I mean, environmental conditions for intensification seem to be fair to good (not as good for rapid intensification, but for some gradual intensification), so it does seem like some internal dynamics and organization issues are inhibiting further deepening. Regardless, the radius of maximum winds right now are well removed from the center, so the highest surge may will be some ways northeast of the center. Again, though, I have to think that it will tighten up sometime.