09L: Hurricane Ike

[Heidi Farrar]

If Katrina is any example, it takes at least 12 to 24 hours before the real reports start rolling in...

That's exactly what I was thinking. It's tough when all I have to go on is one TV channel showing cartoons and an internet filled with mostly yesterday's news, so it helps to have some confirmation that we really do need to take the "wait and see" approach (seeing as how there is no other choice) at this point. I was really not at all impressed with GMA's coverage of the scene "at first light." I just get the impression that the media is not really sure what is going on or what to do (lol), not beyond the OMG it's a hurricane!!! aspect, and therefore they don't have the presence of mind to tell people that they are waiting to see what has happened in the hardest hit areas. With Katrina, I didn't even have internet (rural Arkansas...) so I remember having this feeling of, Hey! Wait a second... when the really bad reports started coming in. I guess I was expecting the media to try to prepare the viewers for that in some realistic way, instead of dropping a bomb on us after it seemed like the news wasn't quite so bad afterall. I don't know why it bothers me so much, but it just seems like a bit of a disservice for them to not even mention that they don't have access to the Bolivar Peninsula (if that is the case, which it may be) when there could be thousands of people in a really bad spot. I of course hope for the best, and it was great to hear that Galveston wasn't swamped, but one would think that by now there should be something worth reporting on Bolivar pen., High Island, etc.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The major areas where the reporters were located (Galveston, around Houston, etc) did not experience the right-front part of the Ike. As such, it is unlikely that they saw the highest surge. The strongest winds and highest surge should have occurred from Port Arthur to the Bolivar peninsula. At landfall, RECON found large swaths of 80-90 kt sustained surface winds just offshore between the Bol. peninsula and Port Arthur.

From a meteorological point of view, things could have been worse for Galveston and the Houston suburbs; these areas did NOT experience the worst that Ike had. From a loop at Google Maps, there is very little population in that area (other than High Island), so it will be a little difficult to get a grasp on just how bad Ike's worst wind/surge were. Ike turned NNW literally about 20-30 miles east enough to keep Galveston and Houston in the weaker Left-of-center part of the storm. Galveston did not dodge a bullet, except when speaking from a meteorological point of view (in that they did NOT experience the worst wind and surge that Ike did produce northeast of Galveston).

 

[Bill Tabor]

I think you are right about Hou/Gal dodging the worst, still seems there should be more measurements in the front right quad, and still surprised stronger winds didn't extend further out from center either H or TS. Also is their any verification of the aforementioned possible surge of 20 or even 25 ft with waves 20+ on top of that. I suspect that since Ike sped up a bit and managed to avoid total high tide that also helped with total heights perhaps quite a bit. Thoughts?

 

[Bill Tabor]

On another note brother in law in Pearland stayed during the storm, had all his windows boarded up and reports only minor roof shingle damage in a few places.

 

[Bill Hark]

Although I really hate those I-reports, here is a link to an image with numerous shattered windows from Houston. Flying glass always worries me in during wind events in cities. A blowing and falling shard of glass could slice someone in half. There may be more extensive inside damage if the building got a lot of water through the windows.

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-85185

Bill Hark

 

[Bill Tabor]

Ike Economic Damage may be less than Feared:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080913/ike_economy.html

 

[Jason Young]

Just got the call from my uncle in Dickinson Tx. He told me his home had took major damige ( miss spelled I know only on 2 hr's sleep. ) lol. Still wondering about the Cameran La. area. I bet it is all gone.

 

[Steve Bottkol]

Ike downgraded to tropical storm as of 1PM CST

 

[Darren Addy]

I would expect the Houston Chronicle site to be the best source of early information.

Rescue crews wait for Ike to pass to find victims

With roads still unpassable, it was unclear how many may have perished, and authorities mobilized for a huge search-and-rescue operation to reach the more than 100,000 people who ignored warnings that attempting to ride the storm out could bring "certain death." Crews were waiting for the storm to pass to make rescues.

 

[MClarkson]

the Sabine tide guage nearly hit 15 feet last night. Tide gauges often do not represent the highest surge. We may have to wait until first light tomorrow to get the first damage shots out of the likely devastated Bolivar Peninsula-Port Arthur region.

 

[Jack Beven]

Can anyone explain the primary forces that dictate the size of hurricanes? I'm not a tropical cyclone guru by any means, but I haven't read much about why some storms are small vs. why some are large. I can only assume size is a function of storm maturity (i.e. how "old" is the storm?), intensity, and upper-level outflow / environment... I 've noticed that a lot of intense hurricanes can start our relatively small but grow rather quickly, with some lag time between intensification and physical growth.

Jeff and all,

We don't understand all the factors that control size. However, there is a tendency for older storms to become larger. Part of this could be due to eyewall replacement cycles that cause the core to spread out. Part of it could be due to interaction with the Earth's vorticity field, as storms moving toward higher latitudes tend to get larger.

There are probably other factors as well. Storms that interact with cold air, either from upper-level cold lows (like Hanna) or during extratropical transition tend to get larger with spread-out cores. Sometimes an Atlantic TC will interact with the monsoon environment of the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea (like Isidore 2002) and get very large. On the other hand, Felix of 2007 was always small, and even an eyewall replacement cycle couldn't make it larger. This may have been due to the anticyclonic background environment the storm was embedded in.

I've seen a case where the storm shrank - Jerry of 1989, which got sheared over the western Gulf of Mexico. The outer part of the storm weakened, leaving a small core that became a midget hurricane when the shear decreased.

This is a good area of study for any grad students who are interested!

Jack Beven

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Jack: I've always wondered, is there any evidence that land interaction causes storms to grow in size?

 

[Jack Beven]

Jack: I've always wondered, is there any evidence that land interaction causes storms to grow in size?

Ryan and all,

Not that I'm aware of. Actually, my experience suggests that land interaction could cause some aspects of the storm to shrink. First, the land friction reduces the surface winds, which is why all other things (pressure gradient and the like) being equal the winds will be less over land than over water even in areas of onshore flow. Dr. Mark Powell of the Hurricane Research Divsion showed back in the 1980's that the change in the wind from water to land can be almost discontinuous - very sharp over a distance of a few miles.

Second, there have been some occasions where it looked like frictional convergence in the eyewall at landfall caused the eyewall to tighten up. That would be another interesting thing for a grad student to study.

Jack Beven

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Below is HRD's analysis of the surface winds at the time of landfall. Again, while things were bad in Galveston, they could have been worse still if the eye had made landfall 30-40 miles to the southwest of where it did.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2008/AL092008/0913/0730/AL092008_0913_0730_contour08.png

 

[Jack Beven]

FWIW, latest RECON finally showing a >20 mile stretch of 80-90 kt SFMR-measured sfc winds off-shore between Bolivar Peninsula and Port Arthur. It seems that residents are very fortunate that Ike made the NNW turn a bit earlier than anticipated, since the right-front quad is considerably stronger than the left-front quad that Houston proper will/is experiencing.

Dropsonde near there showed 118 kt winds at 925mb (350 m ASL).

KHOU is in the outer edge of the inner eyewall now. Unfortunately, no wind obs available as of last report.

Jeff and all,

There are three observing sites I know of between Galveston and Sabine Pass. The NOS site at the Galveston North Jetty and the TCOON site at Rollover Pass both failed before the peak conditions arrived. The C-MAN station at Sea Rim State Park (just west of Sabine Pass and well east-northeast of the center) failed when sustained winds hit 75 mph with a gust to 99 mph.

I couldn't keep up with the instrumented tower/DOW data that well in real-time. However, my understanding is that most of those platforms were set up much farther north closer to I-10 and (hopefully) out of the storm surge zone. I don't know of any tower or chaser who was out on the Bolivar Peninsula or over toward High Island. Indeed, given what the surge probably did out there I'm not sure any instrumented platform in that area could have survived it. We'll be looking for data from that area, but I'd be surprised if we find any.

The same problem occurred in Hurricane Rita. A lot of the portable towers were set up well inland because it would have been impossible for them be survive the surge at the coast.

Jack Beven