09L: Hurricane Ike

[Greg Blumberg]

Well people, Gustav isn't gonna last forever, so I thought I ought to start the thread for the new tropical depression.

I'm wondering if Hanna's lack of movement is going to take away all the energy in that area and stunt the development of TD9.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Ouch.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_3/12/images/hwrf_ms1_126l.gif

That model nailed the track of Gustav that far out, not so much on intensity however.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

This has GOT to be Ike at 21z; latest satellite intensity estimates are T3.0/T3.0, which corresponds to 45kt. That was as of 1745z, and the satellite presentation has continued to improve since then; thunderstorm activity is well-organized, mainly in one convective band that wraps all the way around 09L. Outflow is also impressive, and is maybe only slightly restricted in the SW quadrant. If shear can relax a little bit, which it is progged to do, then Ike will likely strengthen faster than is currently indicated by the SHIPS model, which takes it to hurricane strength by 48H.

 

[Chris Hayes]

TD9 is now Tropical Storm Ike with 50mph winds.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

While there is A LOT of time to watch Ike, current indications are this could be a major player down the road. Several of the models have this as a major hurricane in 72hrs, including the GFDL which maintains a steady strengthening trend all the way to Cat 4/5. Not sure entirely the role that previous Canes play on water temps, though I'm guessing the recovery will be quick enough after Hanna to not be to big of an issue for Ike, esp. given Hanna's tracks proximity to the gulf stream???

 

[Jason Harris]

People are neglecting Ike, and look he's the only actual hurricane out there right now. Hanna has been rather disappointing so far. This phrase about Ike from the NHC 5 PM discussion is almost poetic, like an ideal birth for a hurricane: "THE
CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR"--Gotta love the word "cocoon" there.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Not so sure I would call it neglecting, there's just been and remains plenty of time to watch him. Though, that "time" is decreasing day by day, given the current models forecast track (and potential for Miami to be affected) and the potential strength of the system, you will here plenty of Ike talk in the days to come. Is there going to be any beach left on the E coast of FL by the time this season is over?

 

[Paul Austin]

Beautiful eye on Sat now. Interesting to see such a well-formed compact system on the heals of such a disorganized large one.

 

[Jim Leonard]

I wouldn't hit the road too soon for hurricane Ike. Im not too sure this one will come to the east coast as the last two runs of the gfs is showing a weaker ridge to the north in the extended range even the euro is tending a little north and east shift in the latest run. If the storm goes to the SW in coming days as the NHC models suggest then the chances for a landfall on the east coast will be more likely but I would not be suprised to see a more northward trend in the model guidance in the next 24 hours. One problem the storm is getting too strong too far east which enhances a poleward turn.

 

[Jason Harris]

Pretty impressive that Ike is already a Cat. 3. Wonder how well he'll fight off the threatening shear later.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Wow what an impressive storm. Looks pretty similar to Hurricane Andrew in terms of strength and direction it may head in. If it does follow the current track it will likely move over far S Florida then likely restrengthen while over the Gulf with another landfall along the Gulf Coast. Though I may be wrong as I have never really forecasted hurricanes. Just based off of seeing other hurricanes (Andrew, Katrina, Rita) it was the same sort of situation. Very interesting to see to say the least.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm surprised it has exploded and strengthened like this. However, the big kicker for Ike will be how it does when it goes through the area where Hannah has been hanging out for a few days. If the upwelling isnt too bad, it could be a formidable hurricane.

 

[Adam Penney]

As of the latest NHC update, Ike is now up to category 4 strength with winds up to 135 mph. On infrared satellite, the storm continues to look very impressive. I too fear that the mess Hanna is currently making, may make it difficult for Ike to maintain such impressive strength.

 

[Matt Sellers]

I'm not surprised that it jumped... the wave that eventually spawned Ike moved off of Africa as a well-developed trough that was immediately flagged for tropical development; while it moved west for 2 days or so without development, the closed circulation that finally developed was extremely well-organized even in its TD stage.

The future of Ike past 72 hours depends on Hanna and the behavior of synoptic-scale features in her area - namely the strength of the ridge that forms from Hanna's southeast to south in her wake.

The 3z outlook has come out as I've written this - Ike has jumped to 135mph.

 

[Mike Davis]

I have to wonder what outflow effects Hanna will give off and change the characteristics of Hurricane IKE. It seems some steering affect should be there.

What does the group think?