08L: Hurricane Hanna

[Gregg Gallina]

Take a look at the Microwave imagery for Hanna... very sheared still.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Click Hanna then AMSU 89 color. The 1451Z image... very impressive look into the nascent eye feature

 

[Marc Austin]

Strange... according to Wunderground's hurricane hunter graphic, max winds have been clocked at 145mph. Wouldn't this make it a Cat 4? Talk about rapid intensification!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_hd.html#a_topad

Where do most of you feel the storm will head? I think the models are overestimating the northward motion, but I live in FL, so Im biased. Just wanted to get some thoughts from some of you who might have more experience in forecasting hurricane tracks.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Other than a couple outliers that like Miami, and couple others that take her back out to sea, the models seem to be in pretty good agreement, targeting the GA/S SC coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008.png

Given this areas relatively low experience with tropical systems, I wonder how well their prepared in terms of infrastructure and or evacuation plans. Though it is worth noting, as well as the models agree on a track, they're all also in pretty strong agreement in keeping Hanna in the Cat 2 range...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008_inten.png

 

[AFales]

Hey guys im new to the board but hurricanes have always fasinated me. Ive been through Bertha Fran Floyd etc. just to name a few.. my question is though, with Hannah.. In the past most storms with the similar projected path and locations have always skirt a lil more northward towards my location (wilmington, NC). My question is do you guys see it drifting more northward my way or staying on its current path?

 

[Jeff Richardson]

My question is do you guys see it drifting more northward my way or staying on its current path?

Welcome aboard! As of now, the forecast models show a large area of high pressure developing in the western Atlantic. That will tend to push Hanna on a northwesterly track.

In the past, I've noticed tropical systems that have run almost parallel to the eastern seaboard but often run over the portions of NC that extend farther eastward into the Atlantic. Guess it's just a matter of topography and storm path mixing together.

 

[AFales]

In the past, I've noticed tropical systems that have run almost parallel to the eastern seaboard but often run over the portions of NC that extend farther eastward into the Atlantic. Guess it's just a matter of topography and storm path mixing together.

Yeah we stick out like a sore thumb Im kind of hoping that it comes up this way. I have a knack for tracking them and being out in them. If it comes this way I will definetly take some photos and videos of various locations around here.

 

[B Ozanne]

Is this a sign of uncertainty or does Hanna know to make sharp angle turns at the exact forecast points? Maybe I have never noticed before, but is the NHC track always straight lines from point to point?

As of 8am the entire eastern seaboard is now in play.

 

[rdale]

NHC is a set of points.

 

[Marc Austin]

I'm somewhat surprised that NHC's track is as far east as it is. It seems like more recent model runs show a tendency for the storm to make landfall in GA/NE FL.

 

[HAltschule]

4pm: Anyone esle notice the numerous 100-123 MPH SFMR winds on the current HH recon flight? That would warrant a CAT 2 to CAT 3 upgrade tonight....

I wonder if there is a good reason for the high winds...ie. strong convective updrafts where they were taken? I suppose the 5pm discussion will inform us.

 

[HAltschule]

4pm: Anyone esle notice the numerous 100-123 MPH SFMR winds on the current HH recon flight? That would warrant a CAT 2 to CAT 3 upgrade tonight....

Does anyone have an explanation of these winds mentioned above and why they were not indicative of a stronger storm than what's indicated in the 5pm advisory? Perhaps they were measured in deep convection?

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Does anyone have an explanation of these winds mentioned above and why they were not indicative of a stronger storm than what's indicated in the 5pm advisory? Perhaps they were measured in deep convection?

Not sure where you saw this -- you have the data messages? I haven't seen or heard of anything like that.

 

[rdale]

I'm beginning to think something is getting converted wrong somewhere in the interim messages... Notably stronger winds and notably lower pressures than the vortex messages ever show?

 

[HAltschule]

I'm beginning to think something is getting converted wrong somewhere in the interim messages... Notably stronger winds and notably lower pressures than the vortex messages ever show?

Are you able to see the realtime data that I am seeing as the recon plane flies it's patterns? FWIW, I am now seeing that data being flagged as suspect data. The plane has been out there for hours and has made numerous loops. It also looks like the NOAA G4 jet was out there recently dropping sondes all over the place for model inclusion.

 

[rdale]

I've hit the Google links a few times - I assume that's where it has been? I know people freaked with a 930mb came for Gustav, but obviously that wasn't right. Not sure.