08L: Hurricane Hanna

[B Ozanne]

Hanna got shredded last night. I'll be impressed if it gets its act back together over the next few days.

 

[jladue]

Hanna's appearance is changing though I'm not so sure it'll be an entirely warm core system. The WV shows the trough is forming west of Hanna and the upper-level northwesterlies have been displaced west of the low-level circulation. But the whole appearance of the system is starting to show signs of high level baroclinicity reminiscent of a subtropical storm. Maybe convection may wrap around the low-level center and create a warm core but I think the rate of intensification will be slow. So now I'm thinking a large system with CAT-1 winds at the core is what this storm will look like before landfall.

 

[AFales]

Hmm.. looks like Hannah WILL be heading up my way(Wilmington, NC) Probably as a Cat 1. Predicted to speed up and strengthen this afternoon and tomorrow. Landfall Friday Afternoon, Saturday morning perhaps. If anyone is going to chase this storm PM me. I know of some good locations around here.

 

[rdale]

Might not have a lot of people willing to chase 30mph winds and a few showers by the time she gets up your way

 

[James Skelton]

A system that large will have a hard time organizing itself. I'll be holding out for a modest cat 1 in order for an intercept.

 

[AFales]

Might not have a lot of people willing to chase 30mph winds and a few showers by the time she gets up your way

lol true that.. past couple years thats all we've got is the weak storms.. last major one we had was floyd and fran before that.. I was out on wrightsville beach when opheilia came ashore.. it was wierd too, on the ocean side it was nothing but a wall of water, not waves.. but down on the south end(sound side) there were PERFECT waves coming in. Even for a cat1 storm the surge had water from the intercoastal waterway overflowing into peoples yards, almost up to the road.. was something to see

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

A Hanna intercept on my part, being a weekend chase, is now seeming more and more discouraging. Hanna is under the influence of a pesky upper-air low (500 / 250 MB) or so and this has caused southerly shear over Hanna (after experiencing nearly 2 days of NW flow aloft from Gustav's outflow plume earlier this week)!

What this did was create a very large and broad circulation of tropical-storm (gale) forced winds, without a central core, and relatively shallow / warm-cloud-top convection in large regions well removed from the pressure center.

It appears unlikely an inner-core will re-develop, and Hanna should eventually come near the Carolinas as a strong tropical storm (I doubt a minimal hurricane as I just do not see the storm doing that since a core does not exist).

Now, with all this said, what WILL be a definite is the generation of very high waves and swell energy from Florida to the New England coast, so a "hurricane surf" video can easily be gotten from this event ... Including some daring individuals who might try to ride the large waves ;-)

Hanna will also become extratropical near the Carolinas as well come Saturday / Sunday. A possible trough left behind Hanna MIGHT also cause far-more-dangerous Ike to also miss some vulnerable areas in the southeast / FL.

 

[B Ozanne]

I'll be waiting for Hanna to come to me this weekend. I'm hoping the coc passes to our west which is an ideal track to bring coastal CT stronger winds.

The GFDL has winds in Hanna peaking as it crosses over DE/NJ. I'm not focusing too much on the exact winds but it is forecast to strengthen in that area.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Hannna seems to be getting better organized. Slight drift to the left noticed on sat. images and KLMB radar. Think I'll stay in Jacksonville, FL to keep an eye on the storm just in case the north turn is not as pronounced as forecasted. We will see.

W.

 

[Von Castor]

It appears that there has been some quite explosive development on either side of the
LLC in the last few hours. She just might make it back to Hurricane status before landfall.

 

[Saul Trabal]

A question-how does tornado development look for Hannah, insofar as landfall? I'm up in northern New Jersey. I was going to take my elderly mom to the dentist, but the transportation service canceled her pick-up due to the storm.

 

[AFales]

A question-how does tornado development look for Hannah, insofar as landfall? I'm up in northern New Jersey. I was going to take my elderly mom to the dentist, but the transportation service canceled her pick-up due to the storm.

As of right now, we have 2 counties in our viewing area under warnings and thats Duplin and Onslow counties. We're all under a watch(of course) and so far ive seen some lightning associated with it.. Not much but some. Ill report a little later on when it picks up. Just rain and light wind occasional gusts as of now

 

[B Ozanne]

Its very calm in coastal CT right now. Dewpoint is getting close to 80 and we had a quick 0.80" of rain last night.

 

[B Ozanne]

A question-how does tornado development look for Hannah, insofar as landfall? I'm up in northern New Jersey. I was going to take my elderly mom to the dentist, but the transportation service canceled her pick-up due to the storm.

Here is the discussion from NY NWS this morning:

WITH
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL
HELICITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THAT ISOLATED TORNADIC
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT (NOTE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OVER MOST OF
LONG ISLAND AND SE CT DUE TO 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY AND 2 PCT
PROBABILITY OVER REMAINDER OF CWA EXCEPT FAR WESTERN ORANGE
COUNTY.

 

[B Ozanne]

What's the requirement to code "PRESFR"?

Pretty sure I have that right now.