07/23/07 FCST: IA / MN / SD / MO / KS / NE / OK

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm really only starting this because it is slightly strange. I've chased very backed mid-level flow to southerly or worse. Then you have southwest flow, west flow, northwest flow days, and even some northerly flow days. I can't think of one chase day I've chased with the mid-level flow being from the northeast, and even east-northeast.

Just look at this forecast hodo for Tekamah Nebraska:

I am guessing I'll be chasing tomorrow, so long as it isn't an early crapfest, which it very well could be. I hope it's not that way, as I really want to see a good storm moving more westerly than anything.

Some stuff for 18z:

Cape

Shear/vector

Storm Motion

That motion is just funny. I can already feel the high confusion that will come tomorrow. Target is home for now.

Another funny upside down hodo for Norfolk NE at 21z

Norfolk at 18z That's just rediculous. 6600 cape, 402 0-3km cape. Low lcl's and another nice, but upside down hodo.

EDIT

Interesting radar loop from Des Moines right now. You can see the outflow stretching nw from the lead storm. It'd be pretty ideal to have those continue for a bit before dying off, and let that ofb slow up in ne NE somewhere. Get stuff to pop off that early(1-3pm).

 

[Stan Rose]

Yeah Mike, it was pretty cool seeing the IR loops last night--big long line of storms you could trace all the way from WY to Mexico, all moving west. Now theres this mcs moving west through Iowa. With any luck, we may even see some storms move through ern CO this eve.

 

[scott r currens]

I'm really only starting this because it is slightly strange.

I have to disagree. This setup is definitely in the highly strange category. I was trying to visualize what an isolated supercell would look like today but it just seems too odd. Now I am trying to draw it on a piece of paper and it is even more bizarre looking. Well, it looks like a crapfest for KS so I guess I won’t get a chance to see if my drawing works in the real world. Good luck to anyone that ventures out, I’d love to see some pictures.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I have to disagree. This setup is definitely in the highly strange category. I was trying to visualize what an isolated supercell would look like today but it just seems too odd. Now I am trying to draw it on a piece of paper and it is even more bizarre looking. Well, it looks like a crapfest for KS so I guess I won’t get a chance to see if my drawing works in the real world. Good luck to anyone that ventures out, I’d love to see some pictures.

Well I hope you saw the forecast soundings before they updated. Last night's run had stronger mid-level winds. They are a fair bit weaker now, which always seems to happen the day of. So instead of the 50 knots of 0-6km shear it was showing at 18z, it's now showing 35 knots.

Looks like the weak outflow boundary will be around/west of Sioux City and on southwest of there. I guess that is the target for now. I'm still confused on what side the front of the base will be. It doesn't help the low levels winds will be so weak. So does the storm move south west and want to tend to turn left to move more south, and then have the front of the storm be best viewed from the south? Or will it go southwest and want to turn right, and then have the base be best viewed from the west? It's too bad we likely won't see any supercells, or at least any with a good radar signature, as I bet it'd look funny today. Even if something moved left and moved more south it would look odd to see it vented to the southwest. Other way will be odd as well. Will probably just get a big blob that moves southwest with the cold pool/core behind it.

Anyway, will be keeping an eye on that area near Sioux City, with the early cu there. (which now look like ass)

Very low accas field forming over town here right now.

 

[Chad Cowan]

This is indeed a strange setup. There is more than sufficient instability over eastern NE and se SD for powerful thunderstorms. And if anything does manage to develop, it will be quite unique to watch given the strong NErly flow alot, like Mike said.

Question: if any sups do develop and produce, would the tornado(es) be anti-cyclonic?

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Come on people we all know this is NE" .. lol yes strange setup, i dont know how this is going to play out i think there is a decent op for maybe a supercell or 2, more then likely multi cells , idk im debating right now if i want to go to west of wahoo a bit or north by columbus? of course im no expert, ive never chased anything with a wsw movement so will be intresting to say the least if something gets going.. gl to all try to stay cool

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Tornado warning already issued for York CO with reported funnels from what appears to be nothing more then a shower at this point with tops at about 25k ft, gonna be interesting to see what unfolds here this afternoon, I am still pondering if its worth the short trip to the West to see what happens.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Freaky freaky freaky. Looking east at the northern storm in NE as it takes on supercell characteristics. Inflow tail going west, roud base and updraft. As it moves west. Too busy to start a now thread.