nickgrillo
EF5
Just wanted to start a thread for the dakotas this Saturday. The latest 12Z NAM is painting a pretty good supercell picture across that area. A strong cold front pushing east, with moisture pooling at the SFC (and CAPES AOA 3000J/KG), in addition to helicity values in excess of 350m2/s2 would lead me to believe a pretty decent severe event is probable. The entire column has excellent rotation - winds at the SFC are backing to the SE, veering to the south at 850mb, then veering to the west-northwest at 500mb (in a small area of the dakotas). In addition, given the very high moisture/theta-e, LCL's will be quite low, so it would be easy for a storm to produce a tornado.
Anybody else care to comment?
Anybody else care to comment?