07/06/05 TALK: Tropical Depression Cindy (dissipated)

Well...Tropical Depression Three has formed off of the Yucatan Peninsula, but strengthening will obviously be limited until the system can clear the coastline (sometime Monday per NHC). If the circulation survives its trip over the relatively flat terrain, the NHC 5-day cone indicates that then Tropical Storm Cindy will make landfall on the Upper Texas coast sometime on Wednesday. Thoughts/concerns?
 
Well, I have been eyeing this for a bit also. It will be interesting to watch how it progresses after it gets into the GoM. There does not appear to be much shear over the next few days. We will just have to wait and see how it evolves during this period.
 
the gfdl curves it more towards louisiana and takes it up to cat 1...

but I wouldnt put much stock in a ~4 day forcast with land interaction on a depression. The shear may be light but its gotta survive the yucatan and its still early in the season...
 
TD#3 will likely be T.S. Cindy by morning. NHC currently has the track over southern La, but I think it will hit closer to the Ms gulf coast after just clipping extreme SE la. The approaching cold front should give it a little push east. Timing will be very important. I'm going to try to make this one as long as it gets over 55mph. Current Satellite is showing the convection to the NE has weakened since this afternoon but it is also showing strong signs of the center of circulation getting more organized. Should be interesting to see if it makes it to a hurricane. Historically the storms in this area get organized rapidly with a favorable environment so it will be possible.
 
It's starting to look like a bad year for the GoM. TD Three is now TS Cindy. My preferred track is a bit to the east of the official forecast, perhaps a bit closer to MOB. Arlene stuck it to Mobile earlier, and looks like Cindy might do the same. Now we have TS Dennis on the map too... This could be a good season for 'cane chasers.


Ben
 
Cindy's looking vaguely organized now — there's a pretty distinct core — but by the look of things, she'll make landfall before getting any stronger. I guess there might be tornadoes to look out for at landfall, around the W FL/SE AL/SW GA area.
 
I will be heading to Gulfport in a few minutes to have a little fun. I am going to stay at the Beau Rivage hotel and casino since they send me free nights. I'm thinking we should get some pretty good winds as long as Cindy doesn't deside to shift east too much. PM or email me if anyone wants to meet up. Hopefully Cindy will keep me occupied and out of the damn casino.
 
Looking at satellite imagery, Cindy is definitely trying really hard to get organized. Outflow is improving in the right half of the storm, as evident from the cirrus banding features that are elongating over the past few hours. However, the west half is still choking. The deepest convection is trying to wrap around the west, but the shear will not lighten up enough for it to do so. Overall organization looks better now than this morning, but only very slow strengthening should occur. Wave observations from buoys do not indicate much above 12 feet, so sustained winds of 60 mph right now are a bit of a stretch...or only present in a very very tiny location.

If Cindy deepens a little bit more, it is all the more likely that it will follow the upper-level flow regime and shift east. Right now, it looks like it may clip the outer tip of southeast LA, then continue towards the MS coastline. Depending on how deep the system is, it may even clip the Florida panhandle - most likely after landfall.
 
Hurricane hunter data now indicates maximum sustained winds are 70mph. With at least a few more hours before landfall and SSTs in the upper 80's, our first landfalling hurricane of 2005 may be Cindy. Also, a band of intense convection has developed on the western semicircle and the overall satellite presentation is pretty good.
 
Well, since 3 pm, the band to the west has dissipated. Looks like Cindy has stalled in terms of intensifying. I doubt it will get any stronger by the time it makes landfall. The area of highest convection is moving around erratically. If the winds do somehow get bumped up by the hurricane hunters, it would only be because of a wind gust observation. Cindy still doesn't quite look like a 60 kt tropical storm, given that there are no surface obs that support it. By the time it reaches land, I don't think there would be any obs that show 1 minute sustained winds near 70 mph. Gusts perhaps. Sustained, most likely not. Well, we'll see. It's a big guessing/forecasting game at this point, just hours before landfall. It looks like this is a good storm to chase. Fun, but not too hazardous except for rising water, but that could be avoided.
 
Looks like Cindy is making a last ditch effort to tighten up, but the winds are so isolated that it's hard for NHC to call it a hurricane yet. Still no hurricane force sustained winds, though gusts are getting up there. There is an eye-wall type thing *attempting* to develop, but it hasn't lasted for very long, and it is elongated northwest/southeast. It has at most 1 more hour to hold steady, before it starts to weaken.
 
I'm currently sitting about 40 feet from the gulf in Biloxi. The winds are not that impressive (about 30 and gusty) just a lot of rain. Blake is sitting on the eastern part of Dauphin Island which is just southwest of mobile. He said he was getting T.S. winds as the last squall past over. The radar was looking impressive. Cindy actually looked as though she has gotten a little better organized after making landfall. Their is a visible eye just south of N.O. and has jogged a bit east so hopefully the eye passes over.
correction:
Ok the winds are kicking now! easily T.S forced.
 
The "eye" is inland now; going by radar, it's just NW of Mobile, AL. There's no structure to speak of in the southern half of the storm. I guess that's the end of Cindy.
 
Cindy is recently been downgraded to tropical depression status as she is well inland across Washington Co. Alabama and she continues to move towards the NE. Some dry air looks to be getting wrapped in as Cindy has moved inland and that has diminished here convective bands a good bit. Flash Flooding is ongoing across some west Alabama counties (Greene/Sumter/Hale) and should continue as most of the heavy echos remain due north of the center of circulation. Looks like with this dry entrustion we could get some breaks and maybe a reissuance of another tornado watch.
 
The French Broad River valley in western NC is becoming the 'Florida' of consecutive major flooding events from tropical systems. The HPC has a day 1 QPF bullseye of nearly 8 inches over the region around Asheville. Flood *warnings* have already been issued and it hasn't started raining there yet. If this verifies, this will be their third major tropical cyclone-induced flood in 10 months.
 
Some radar grabs from storms in southeastern Virginia today:

Near Emporia, VA ~8:30PM EDT - WxWorx capture
cindysup4.jpg


Near South Hill, VA ~7PM EDT
cindysup2.jpg


cindysup1.jpg


I was not able to retrieve velocity scans for these as there was no velocity data looping capability from AKQ.

Bill Coyle was on these storms and reported supercell characteristics including large rain-free bases, rotating wall clouds, beaver tails and a possible funnel despite horrible visibilty due to trees.
 
I was also chasing but couldn't out of work until 4PM. I blasted southwest from Richmond toward the isolated cells, eventually targetting cells near Kenbridge and Keysville, Virginia. As I approached the isolated cells, they would die and eventually merge into a rainy mass of "mush". At dark, I headed back toward Richmond watching numerous CG's. One close CG seemed to break apart into little pieces (my camcorder was pointed the other direction) It seemed like a big MCS. There was minor flooding in Richmond when I returned and my roof leaked. Arrghh.

I hope Bill Coyle can post some pics.

Bill Hark
 
The NWS did damage surveys and a few tornadoes were confirmed in central/southern Virginia. The strongest was probably in Saluda. The other two were after dark and late including one near Richmond. Thus the importance of keeping a weather radio.

These tornadoes from tropical systems are hard to chase but still worth a try.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/050707_rpts.html

Bill Hark
 
In addition, some confirmed tornadoes in Yadkin County, NC, and Patrick County, VA, all F0-F1, per NWS Blacksburg assessment. Also, I was nowcasting for Dave Carroll on Thursday (July 7) when he and 2 fellow chasers were in the Yadkin County storm and observed a rotating wall cloud and swirling rain curtains near a radar-indicated meso. A very difficult day to chase, as is usual in tropical systems, due to all the heavy rain, very low cloud bases, etc. I got into that mess with Ivan last year.
 
In addition, some confirmed tornadoes in Yadkin County, NC, and Patrick County, VA, all F0-F1, per NWS Blacksburg assessment. Also, I was nowcasting for Dave Carroll on Thursday (July 7) when he and 2 fellow chasers were in the Yadkin County storm and observed a rotating wall cloud and swirling rain curtains near a radar-indicated meso. A very difficult day to chase, as is usual in tropical systems, due to all the heavy rain, very low cloud bases, etc. I got into that mess with Ivan last year.
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I hope some of those chasing in North Carolina or Virginia could post some wall cloud/funnel images here or on their websites. I didn't see anything July 7th and would like to see some other chasers "catches" even if they were wall clouds and not tornadoes.

Bill Hark
Richmond, Virginia
http://www.harkphoto.com
 
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