6/12/06 FCST: Tropical Storm Alberto

[MClarkson]

well the tropical season has begun!

Hurricane hunters are on the way, and will be on site in an hour or so.

if this storm survives and becomes a tropical storm, it should recurve towards floridas gulf coast, although I really dont see any opportunity for it to become stronger than a TS before florida... upper level winds do not appear to be that healthy, until it turns more east it will be fighting upper level winds. NHC does indicate a moderate tropical storm for the gulf coast. SHIPS and GFDL are in good agreement for 50 knots at florida impact. After crossing florida the GFDL indicates strenghtening to a hurricane, it will be booking up the east coast so it is possible for those right side winds to be stronger than one would expect from a system over the mid atlantic this early. Because of the strong westerlies still around this will behave more like a late season storm. Although before we get to that it has to stay together in this early stage. IR imagery does show low level cyclonic flow and upper level outflow to the north looks decent, but cloud tops have warmed recently.

looking at the bouys SSTs are in the low 80s in the gulf, and around 80 up to cape hateras, and then rapidly cool north of that.

When the hurricane hunters get there we should have a better idea if it will live or not, or if the center of circulation is in the right area for the latest model runs to be accurate.

EDIT: TS

 

[Jeff Snyder]

In reference to a couple of now-deleted posts concerning tropical cyclone discussion in the "Chase Forecasts" forum:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE("Stormtrack Rules")</div>

(8) A post about any tropical cyclone being monitored by NHC is allowed. One FCST/NOW/REPORTS/DISC thread is allowed per storm. Moderators will adjust the subject line to reflect the latest status and area of the storm. [/b]

Typically, it's best to wait off on starting a FCST or NOW thread until after the storm has been named. However, this one looks like it will directly impact the US, so it's okay now. So, post away!

 

[rdale]

Doug - I'm no hurricane forecaster, so am just curious what makes you believe it has a chance of hitting New Orleans? Seems like it'd never be able to push back against the synoptic flow.

 

[Jim Leonard]

TD#1 is a really weak disorganized system and I wouldn't be surprised if it would not make it to tropical storm status. All day there has been multiple centers rotating around a large low pressure system. With the strong shear enviroment the depression is inbedded in that unfavorable flow and will be for the next few days I would expect to see only a sloppy and large low center move over the northern part of Florida with welcome heavy rain fall.

 

[Marc Austin]

We'll take what we can get as far as rain goes here in the Sunshine state. The forest fire situation down here is getting pretty bad. I have to say based on today's satellite imagery and the forecast models calling for this to have a hard time strengthening, i'd have to agree with Jim. I suppose it could reach moderate tropical storm strength before it makes its way across Floridal, but I don't see a high liklihood of anything stronger, but stranger things have happened, so we just have to keep an eye on it the next 48 hours and see what happens. Either way, it looks like FL is in for some rain and that's not bad news.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I'm not so optimistic about this one. The satellite presentation this morning is terrible-- very asymmetric-- and in the most recent discussion, the NHC lowered the max intensity forecast to 40 kt and suggested the low-level circulation center might languish and dissipate in the W Gulf, lonely and separated from the deep convection. Shear is the headline story with this baby.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I notice on the recent satellite frames that there's a solid, persistent burst of deep convection very close to-- apparently just N of-- the circulation center. You can see the system is really "trying" to get it together. If the shear slacked off a little, I'll bet this thing would develop nicely.

Note: This links is dynamic, so the above commentary will no longer apply as the system evolves.

 

[Jim Leonard]

I notice on the recent satellite frames that there's a solid, persistent burst of deep convection very close to-- apparently just N of-- the circulation center. You can see the system is really "trying" to get it together. If the shear slacked off a little, I'll bet this thing would develop nicely.

Note: This links is dynamic, so the above commentary will no longer apply as the system evolves.

[/b]

This mornings visible images show a well exposed low level center near 23.6N and 88.2W but a new center is trying to take shape near a burst of convection near 24.7N and 85.8W. This is a sign of a strong sheard system and will probably continue until landfall.
Jim

 

[Jim Leonard]

This mornings visible images show a well exposed low level center near 23.6N and 88.2W but a new center is trying to take shape near a burst of convection near 24.7N and 85.8W. This is a sign of a strong sheard system and will probably continue until landfall.
Jim
[/b]

Late update!
TS Alberto has been named although it is still a strongly sheared storm system and very little if any intensification should occur. NHC is tracking the low level center I spoke about in my previous post, I would expect this feature to eventually dissipate and the new center closer to the convectio to become dominate later today.

 

[rdale]

NHC had requested all FL offices and a few along the Gulf Coast to run upperair soundings every 6 hours - they've now canceled that request... Not a good sign for Al!

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Doug - I'm no hurricane forecaster, so am just curious what makes you believe it has a chance of hitting New Orleans? Seems like it'd never be able to push back against the synoptic flow.
[/b]

Last night the center was making a drunken wobble and I was watching the storms brewing off of Tampico Mexico which looked as if the ridge was retreating and convection was going to wrap around the center today. With that convection 24 hours ago in my previous post it was a sign that the sheer was not all that and was moving northward, at least that is the way it looked to me. That convection to it's west was moving WSW which has me wondering and still keeping an eye on it as well as the new convection off the Yucatan. In the latest NHC forecast, they are reporting the ridge had in fact moved northward.

The movement of the center was still north last night and through today but now I'm not sure if it can make it that far or at all now as anything more then a TD. The vis-sat showed a somewhat defined eye that was very far from the deep convection that was coming on shore over the west cost of FL. The GFDL now shows this is gaining strength but I don't trust that data that much for the strength when all the other models show it falling apart. The MM5 shows this system moving north into the NOLA area still CMC has it moving more north then turning into FL around the Panama City area. The ridge has retreated as of the 10pm NHC but it is still a crap shoot as the GFS shows this thing dying off tomorrow. NoGaps is still showing this moving north. The track is still towards the north but it could shoot off to the north east at anytime in the next 24 hours and kind of looks like it might take the turn tonight.

What really has me saying Hmmmmmm is that next huge area of convection kicking up over the Yucatan. Is that going to stay with Alberto or go off on it's own? And on that WV-sat it shows a nice push coming out of the south to hopefully kick this system out fast.

Gulf WV Sat Loop

 

[Blake Michaleski]

There has been a recent blow up in convection in the last few hours and the convection has built westward some.

Lastest (4AM CDT) NGC advisory has the storm up to 50 mph.

 

[MClarkson]

The next hurricane hunter has just passed what could be a LLC at about 26.5N 87W. The strongest convection is still sheared off to the east, with no strong winds near the center. The strongest winds are displaced 45-50nm east it seems. As long as the storm doesnt turn east, I think this sheared state will persist.

The models are in better agreement about a track more north/northeasterly, and the more northerly it goes the more it will fighting those upper level westerlies.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The convection has flared up impressively this morning, although the LLC is still exposed-- or perhaps at the very W edge of the convection. Still, this is an improvement over yesterday, when the center was hundreds of miles removed from the convection.

Furthermore, I notice on a recent composite radar loop of the Gulf that a vigorous convective band to the N is trying to wrap around the center. This system is really fighting the shear, I'll say that much.

 

[MClarkson]

74 knots at about 3000 feet.

looking rather more healthy that I expected...note how it appears the center may be reforming closer to the convection and stronger winds to the east.

that supports a 55-60 knot tropical storm.