07/05/05 TALK: High Plains

[Verne Carlson]

Starting a talk thread for today's action in e. CO. SPC has a 5% Tornado risk today along the CO/KS border along with a hatched area of large hail. Looking to work through lunch today and head out east to maybe Limon mid afternoon.

 

[Verne Carlson]

SPC's latest day 1 outlook has enlarged the 5% tornado risk to the west and north. Satellite imagery seems to show a boundary from west to east from Byers, CO to Burlington, CO.

Goodland HWO outlook mentions tornadoes but hi bases and weak low-level shear will limit the T potential. Baseball size hail is also mentioned!

 

[Jonathan Merage]

Per latest data from SPC Meso & LAPS Analysis, definitely looks like SE CO (around Lamar) has the highest potential for intense, sustained supercell development: LAA metar showing t/td of 81/62 with winds backing from the NE @ 15 kts. They're sitting under clear skies, so there's also a high CAPE bullseye @ ~3400 j/kg (LAPS 2-D, wfoj (CO) domain). Steering winds down there show much stronger veering (due NW @ 30 kts.) which should increase thru the afternoon. Also liking the meridional boundary you pointed out, Verne.
I'm sure storms willl break out across the eastern Plains thru the afternoon anyway. I guess we'll have a better idea by 2:00.
Looking forward to the chase!!
Jon

EDIT: NWS JUST issued SVR Watch for the area (no mention of tors, though :? --here we go!