07/03/05 FCST: Plains

  • Thread starter Steve Miller TX
  • Start date

Steve Miller TX

I'm surprised that there isn't anychatter about today's event. I'm seeing alot of parameters coming together for a pretty significant event...especially in KS. Violent supercells with a few isolated tornadoes are likely in my opinion....and a more distinct tornado threat in the Central and NE parts of KS if the NAM verifies.

Significant discrepencies again with the 12z RUC and NAM with the exception of the frontal boundary which they agree to stretch diagonally across KS into SE NE. However, placement of surface low, dewpoints are pretty different as is the upper level impulse.

Right off the bat, I'm discounting the RUC forecast of severely whacking the dewpoints. With plenty of 70Td in OK and upper 60Td in the SE half of KS, I don't see why the RUC is smacking them down into the upper 50's. mid to upper 60's are a pretty sure bet with localized pooling along the front.

The upper level impulse approaching from the central Rockies looks pretty potent and extends from 700 through 500mb. It looks like the models have caught this pretty well and track into W and SW KS later today. Associated W and SWerly jet streaks at these levels swing into the S and C portions of KS late this afternoon overspreading a strong southerly LLJ and creating good cyclogenesis. I think the NAM is too far SW and prefer a surface low closer to the Hays region.

As a result, backing low level flow should occur over the central and eastern parts of KS. The vertical wind profiles I'm looking at are awesome! There should be some pretty strong rotating supercells as a result.

Now on to outflow boundaries. A strong cluster of storms over NW and W KS along with a thick, extensive cirrus canopy should produce quite a pronounced outflow boundary in these areas. The thing I like is that this is occuring as a pretty stout LLJ cranks up. It's my opinion that this greatly increases the horizontal (streamwise) vorticity along the outflow boundary.
It's tought to say exactly where it will end up, but along I-70 and just south of that corridor is my best guesstimate at this point.

My preliminary target will be to play the outflow boundary where it is intersected by the front. I'll carefully be monitoring profilers and VAD to check the upper flow and definitely satellite and surface trends. Based on what I know as of this writing, I'm targeting Hays.
I largely agree with Steve, though I'm not very confident about tornado potential. Seems as though we'll have a hard tme realizing convective temps while at the same time, keeping LCL heights where they need to be for tubes. For July, this looks like a classic system with a nice westerly/swesterly flow aloft. I just don't like the sizzling temps at 700 and 850, though as Steve mentioned, I don't know how much confidence one can put in the current 14c temps progged at h7 via latest RUC, as it also has the moisture severely scoured by 0Z. Will continue to monitor satellite/surface obs and make a decision around noon.
Yeah, the LCLs will certainly be an issue. However, I really like the ongoing precip and thick cirrus canopy as well as other extensive clouds across the N parts of KS. I guess I should have clarified that the tornado potential in my opinion will be along the outflow boundary...and that is where I believe tornadoes are likely today...possibly significant if indeed we get the moisture pooling along this boundary and front with dews near 70F. The cooler air to the north of the boundary and the resultant "anvil shadow" region all day today will certainly get the LCLs down to where they need to be along the aforementioned boundaries.

We'll see of course...seems like Ma Nature this year for 2005 has more moves than a David Copperfield act. LOL!! The LCLs like Shane mentioned could certainly end up being a little too high with outflow dominated storms. However, I'm feeling pretty confident that we'll be in fine today along the boundaries.

I'll be heading towards the Hays, KS area and perhaps just south of there in a few minutes. I hope to see some of ya'll out there today!
I agree...

My plan is to likely wait until the last minute to leave ICT.. I like Central KS around the Hays-Russel area as well. I gave my GF my phone yesterday to call me from MO .. not smart.. that is my main source of data usually in C/W KS.

I think we will see an upgrade to 5% on the new day 1 at 1630. If you go by the 12z NAM Run, a fairly significant episode of supercells/few tornadoes could be in store. T/TD depressions are going to be slightly high.. 90/67-68 is possible though and with boundry in play is quite doable. Bottom line... if a storm roots on the boundry.. DO NOT give up until dark. The 30th is a prime example of this.. at least wait until the storm encounters lower LCL's towards sunset. I like the Hays/Russel line for initiation around 4pm.

If anyone out there is available to nowcast (I'll have my dads cell) .. please give me a PM asap.

Good luck all!

EDIT: Major shift in thinking per the 1630 SPC... the MDT has been chopped off in NE/C KS and moved into SW KS/TX PAN region. Think this is more for development off the front range. I still like the Russel area ATTM.
Well the SPC threw a real curve ball and went with the more SW forecast and moved the Mod quite a ways. I am still a bit worried about LCL's as the other guys have mentioned which is why only a token 2% but if we can keep them reasonable I dont see any reason we cant get a few spinups but looks to be big hail event for southern kansas in to NW oklahoma and I am sure some good wind reports as well later tonight.

I work until 4pm so Kanani and I will probably be playing catchup busting NNE as soon as I can get out of town. Just hope its not too late.
We expect a very active day in the DDC CWA... I am on forecast shift today.. I sent an update AFD out w/ fcst thinking at 1125am. Good luck to all who chase!

Mike U
I agree with mike, things could get very interesting around the DDC area. Two ofb's are approaching the area, one from the N and one more slowly from the sw. They look to meet around DDC. When these meet, I think this will give us enough convergence to overcome the thermonuclear cap that is overhead. Moisture is also rapidly returning to the area in and around DDC, now high 60's Td's. Mid 70's are just across the border into OK.

I won't rehash the problems we have with this setup, as they have already been mentioned. If only this wasn't the 4th weekend, I would be chasing, but instead, I will be visiting family. Oh well, if I were chasing, I would definatly target the DDC right now.