Steve Miller TX
I'm surprised that there isn't anychatter about today's event. I'm seeing alot of parameters coming together for a pretty significant event...especially in KS. Violent supercells with a few isolated tornadoes are likely in my opinion....and a more distinct tornado threat in the Central and NE parts of KS if the NAM verifies.
Significant discrepencies again with the 12z RUC and NAM with the exception of the frontal boundary which they agree to stretch diagonally across KS into SE NE. However, placement of surface low, dewpoints are pretty different as is the upper level impulse.
Right off the bat, I'm discounting the RUC forecast of severely whacking the dewpoints. With plenty of 70Td in OK and upper 60Td in the SE half of KS, I don't see why the RUC is smacking them down into the upper 50's. mid to upper 60's are a pretty sure bet with localized pooling along the front.
The upper level impulse approaching from the central Rockies looks pretty potent and extends from 700 through 500mb. It looks like the models have caught this pretty well and track into W and SW KS later today. Associated W and SWerly jet streaks at these levels swing into the S and C portions of KS late this afternoon overspreading a strong southerly LLJ and creating good cyclogenesis. I think the NAM is too far SW and prefer a surface low closer to the Hays region.
As a result, backing low level flow should occur over the central and eastern parts of KS. The vertical wind profiles I'm looking at are awesome! There should be some pretty strong rotating supercells as a result.
Now on to outflow boundaries. A strong cluster of storms over NW and W KS along with a thick, extensive cirrus canopy should produce quite a pronounced outflow boundary in these areas. The thing I like is that this is occuring as a pretty stout LLJ cranks up. It's my opinion that this greatly increases the horizontal (streamwise) vorticity along the outflow boundary.
It's tought to say exactly where it will end up, but along I-70 and just south of that corridor is my best guesstimate at this point.
My preliminary target will be to play the outflow boundary where it is intersected by the front. I'll carefully be monitoring profilers and VAD to check the upper flow and definitely satellite and surface trends. Based on what I know as of this writing, I'm targeting Hays.
Significant discrepencies again with the 12z RUC and NAM with the exception of the frontal boundary which they agree to stretch diagonally across KS into SE NE. However, placement of surface low, dewpoints are pretty different as is the upper level impulse.
Right off the bat, I'm discounting the RUC forecast of severely whacking the dewpoints. With plenty of 70Td in OK and upper 60Td in the SE half of KS, I don't see why the RUC is smacking them down into the upper 50's. mid to upper 60's are a pretty sure bet with localized pooling along the front.
The upper level impulse approaching from the central Rockies looks pretty potent and extends from 700 through 500mb. It looks like the models have caught this pretty well and track into W and SW KS later today. Associated W and SWerly jet streaks at these levels swing into the S and C portions of KS late this afternoon overspreading a strong southerly LLJ and creating good cyclogenesis. I think the NAM is too far SW and prefer a surface low closer to the Hays region.
As a result, backing low level flow should occur over the central and eastern parts of KS. The vertical wind profiles I'm looking at are awesome! There should be some pretty strong rotating supercells as a result.
Now on to outflow boundaries. A strong cluster of storms over NW and W KS along with a thick, extensive cirrus canopy should produce quite a pronounced outflow boundary in these areas. The thing I like is that this is occuring as a pretty stout LLJ cranks up. It's my opinion that this greatly increases the horizontal (streamwise) vorticity along the outflow boundary.
It's tought to say exactly where it will end up, but along I-70 and just south of that corridor is my best guesstimate at this point.
My preliminary target will be to play the outflow boundary where it is intersected by the front. I'll carefully be monitoring profilers and VAD to check the upper flow and definitely satellite and surface trends. Based on what I know as of this writing, I'm targeting Hays.
