Jeff Snyder
EF5
Save for the lack of "extreme" instability (I'd call the 3000-3500 SBCAPE across MN "strong"), the situation from the SPC/RUC mesoanalysis is about as good as it gets in terms of wind shear, low LCLs, and other elements over a large mesoscale area. East to southeast surface winds beneath 35-40kt southerly/SSWrly 850mb flow, 55-60kt southwesterly 500mb flow, and 35-55kt southwesterly flow at 300mb. The awesome directional and speed shear in the lowest few kms are yielding 0-3km SRH values in the 250-400 m2/s2 across the warm sector (higher in ne MN, but that's not in the warm sector, so not really worth considering), with 40-55kt deep-layer shear from MN to northern IA. All of this together is yielding Siggy Tors of 2-4 across a wide swatch of western MN and nw IA. The only discouraging factor for tornadoes is the linear nature of the convection in north of Redwood Falls, MN, though convection is developing and remaining discrete farther into southwestern MN. Overall, it looks like a definate tornado potential across mainly southern MN for as long as the supercell can remain discrete. Pretty impressive late-June setup to say the least. It would have been a little better had clouds and precip not messed with the area this morning and earlier this afternoon, but the 3000 CAPE will likely be enough for tornadic action (given the very impressive shear nonetheless).
EDIT: The Wood Lake MN (southwestern MN) profiler almost makes me want to cry from the sheer beauty of the low-level wind profile.
EDIT: The Wood Lake MN (southwestern MN) profiler almost makes me want to cry from the sheer beauty of the low-level wind profile.
