It will be interesting to see what happens with this convection that seems to be initiating over Kansas right now, with clutter moving toward Iowa overnight. There is a gap between the areas of convection that may allow for clearing tomorrow, but clutter is still a possibility that we may have to contend with. SPC currently seems to believe that initiation over SE South Dakota/SW Minnesota will occur during "early afternoon," leading a person to believe that the cap will not be a major factor. In the morning I'll be looking to see what ends up happening during the overnight hours. I also do not think that Iowa should be discounted, even though the sig tor index certainly seems to be absolutely in love with Minnesota right now. Looks to be ample SRH across the boundary in Iowa tomorrow, and I believe a few storms will likely fire down there. The question is whether they will be discreet, and whether they will be inclined to produce tornadoes in what looks to be a relatively high (but still do-able) LCL situation (hey, maybe local storm enivoronment will help out and lower the LCLs for us, per our recent thread in Weather & Chasing). Hopefully someone will find something interesting, though - all the best to those going out.
) and am targeting the I-35 area for supercells with very large hail and a few tornados tomorrow, mainly after 4 pm.
