Robert Dewey
EF5
Talk thread for the 6/29 event. I originally had a forecast here, but moved it to a forecast thread...
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06/29/2005 TALK: MIDWEST
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Hey, maybe Illinois can get that first supercellular tornado of 2005.
Oh, yeah, who am I kidding.
But I do work Wednesday so the mere fact that I wont be chasing might be enough to get the job done.
nickgrillo
EF5
After a very long day (and not done yet) of continuous editing for my DVD, I finally decided to check the models over for WED. Needless to say, I do not have a car to chase in on WED, and by the looks of everything - it looks to be a biggie.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Word out of southern Wisconsin offices ( MKX, ARX and WISCWX ) is that we may be looking at a classic derecho type setup. Look for storms to develop Wed. afternoon in IA/MN with supercells/tornadoes possible early, evolving into a very large forward-propagating MCS with damaging winds likely, some in excess of 80-90 MPH, across WI/N IL/MI.
If this pans out as such I will be stowing away the patio furniture and making sure the chainsaw is in working order. :wink:
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Im currently waiting on word as to whether or not I can get the day off to chase or not. Hopefully that phone call/email will arrive soon so I can start preparations. I didnt look too extensively on the 12Z run, as its still fairly far out...but I did like NE Iowa...maybe around the Waterloo area. I guess I'll narrow it down more after the next run, and even more so if I am available to chase.
Robert Dewey
EF5
The 00Z NAM just increased the threat and intensity of the derecho, by quite a bit. If it pans out, a pretty widespread area would definitely need their chainsaws. This system has the dynamics of a winter storm and the moisture of a tropical rainforest. It's a dream come true :lol:Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
Not yet, i'm somewhat worried about possible convective feedback issues the models maybe having, which would mess up thier idea of how strong the low will be, wind fields, etc.
That said, it should be a pretty decent event. The tornado threat in MN/IA kinda reminds me of 5-30-98 and we know what happened overnight that day.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, it could be convective feedback, BUT - The NAM is actually the weakest of the models right now. The GFS, GEM, and others are in basic agreement that a very deep system will result from this energy digging into the west.
The biggest forecast problems seem to be placement of the various jets, exact position of the system, and of course timing. It would seem that with such a strong system, the system would be moving slower than actually forecast.
The overall setup still appears favorable for a rather intense and significant hybrid derecho (strongly forced + high instability). I am just having doubts as to how far east it will track before outrunning the best dynamics and thus falling apart.Tim Gonyo
EF2
Well, after reviewing models since I live in Southern WI, I believe tomorrow is going to be VERY similar to the 6/23/04 tornado outbreak that hit S WI (timing maybe VERY similar also). Seventeen tornadoes hit S WI that evening. In fact I believe it looks frighteningly similar.... Here's what happened on 6/23/04:
A warm front was stalled across S WI throughout the majority of the day, and as evening approached, the warm front surged north into C WI and brought warmer air at the surface, while cold air resided aloft. A cold front moved in from the west in the evening and supercells fired up along the WI/MN border and developed SW as they moved east. When they encountered stronger shear due to the E winds north of the warm front and S winds south of the front, they began to rotate and dropped numerous tornadoes on their progression eastward across WI. As they neared the eastern part of the state, they started to bow and produced 60-80 mph winds and large hail.
Now back to 6/29/05.... everything is nearly IDENTICAL to 6/23/04. Nearly too perfect I believe. Warm front in perfect location, cold front moving in, 3000-3500 cape, 500 m2/s2 helicity and an EHI of 5 to 6 all in the same area!!!! In conclusion, SW/SC WI is my target for initiation around 5 to 6 pm!!!!!
Also, this nice little quotation from the SPC:
I may be shooting myself in the head, but I believe SW and possibly SC WI will be outlooked HIGH risk on the DAY 1 outlook.
-TimMarcus Opitz
EF2
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2005
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I wish i could go that far north, but will stay in NW MO, south IA and play the later-southern storms that are hopefully more isolated in nature.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
There is one key difference, Tim-moisture and instability will be MUCH better than they were on 6/23/04. T/Td was only about 75/60 on that day compared to 90/70-75 forecast for tomorrow! :shock:Tim Gonyo
EF2
Wow... yeah I missed that comparison. Can you say Armaggeddon????? :shock: :shock:
-Tim
Alex Lamers
EF4
6/23/04 was more northwest flow although the low was more wound up. 5/30/98 was a classic coupled jet and cape/thk gradient type event but still does not compare to what we are seeing here. I tested a bunch of potential analog events today while I was at WFO MKX and nothing really lined up too well.
I will say that the setup fits very well with the "average setup" for wind events across the MKX CWA (S WI). Still some negating factors to overcome though...it certainly is not a slam dunk.
...Alex Lamers...
Robert Dewey
EF5
It's just awesome to see such a deep low (i.e. 850mb heights down to 1290 meters/129dkm) this time of year. I'm always leery of very intense storm systems combined with very high instability. Typically, it results in quite a line of severe thunderstorms. There will be plenty of forcing, but I think the initial activity will be supercells. Then, things will most likely go linear. As Alex Lamers said, no event really lines up, but there are some similarities. One thing is for sure, the main ingredients, synoptically, are there for a massive derecho - It's the mesoscale aspects that will need to be worked out.Greetings...first post in this area.
I'm also in SE Wisconsin, and I would agree that this setup looks close to last June's event. I has out of the state for that one, but I'll be here tomorrow. I hate cyber-chasing when it's in your own back yard.
If this event materializes, I think the best chance of seeing a tornado-producing supercell will be west of Madison, about 1800 hrs (6 pm). As it gets dark and the storms are moving east towards the lake, the overnight derecho will sweep over. I also anticipate at least one tornado somewhere between Madison and Fond Du Lac, as that valley always seems to light up during events like these.
I won't be able to chase tomorrow due to work, but good luck to those who can.Similar threads
