06/29/2005 TALK: MIDWEST

[J West]

Having the benefit (?) of being at work all night, it seems the entire situation may be stabilizing a bit due to the line of convection that fired in IA in the last couple hours. If this morning garbage holds together, it could really screw up the rest of the day. It's already going to limit prime heating with cloud debris over IA to some extent, but hopefully it clears out. The system as a whole is progged to slow down, which places the 10-ring further northwest over the now-cloudy northern IA and almost all of MN.

MKX backed off the sexy wording big time, but is still making it known a squall line is a legit possibilty. ARX still seems to think it's "go" time for later, but by reading between the lines it appears confidence is very low at this point also. However, the overnight derecho is still being mentioned so stow your patio set 8)

I'd be willing to bet that SPC will be constricting the MOD circle with the next update, or at the least backing down on the wording until they see what happens in IA between now and 04z. As far as WI goes, one of two things will happen: We get the overnight Derecho as promised down here in the MKX CWA, or the GRB CWA gets slammed with a tornadic squall line and I sit at work tonight watching the LSR's.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Good thing the tornado threat will be further west into Iowa and Minnesota, so the Mississippi river should not be a major problem.

DMX Forecast discussion mentions this ongoing convection. They seem to think it may create a boundary over northern iowa and could change the wind directions enough over central and north central iowa to back the winds and increase the chance for tornadoes. That would be interesting to see pan out.

Looks like the RUC is holding the cap until at least 4PM... like no convergence or convection shown through the end of the 12 hour forecast.....

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Well, unfortunately the tornado threat has shifted all the way to SW MN with a 15% tornado threat outlooked in the 1300Z SPC DAY 1.

Looks like I won't be able to chase SW/SC WI like I had planned yesterday. Maybe a miracle will happen?? :x :x :x

Good luck to anyone who's chasing SW MN.

-Tim

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Well, hold on the presses and revise the target area! That was a drastic change... Luckily for me this will nearly be a backyard chase being I'm up here in northwest Iowa. Haven't got a look at too much besides SPC, I'll get to that later on this morning.

Looks like we will play either near Luverne, MN or we will step over into SD along FSD somewhere. Anybody else heading out this way now??

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I don't have time to look at much in the way of forecast, so I'll forego the forecast discussion. I will say that I absolutely love this part of Minnesota (I grew up south of St. Paul and chased southern MN many times). It is very flat and has excellent wx radio coverage (I've picked up 3-4 stations simulatneously while near New Ulm/Mankato). Roads are pretty good, and, as long as you stay away from the MN River, visibility is very good. More into western MN, there are some "foresty" areas, though this is more up near Alexandria and isn't too bad or widespread anyways.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Anyone see that intense mesolow on Hastings radar yesterday? That would be soooooo nice to get one in se NE today. It is only 10:20 and it is 86 in Hebron NE. I could really see getting another circulation down in se NE or ne KS today. I'm just less and less thrilled with the push of this front up here on the RUC model. It races it east across MN quite rapidly. Looking around for something that might be more enjoyable to be chasing.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Well, the bullseyes from last night's runs aren't quite as clear cut this morning. Looks like instability will be pooling further S - around S and central IA. Looks like somewhat of secondary surface low will be around E NE / W IA - whether it will be sufficient to back surface winds out ahead probably a very close call. Dry slot behind existing convection from IA down through N central KS; this convection is racing pretty fast off to the NE. Hopefully will completely clear W IA by early afternoon, but even if not, looks to be more ragged on southern edge, so expect good chance for cloud breaks approaching target from the S.

So, I think Dick and I will crawl up I-29 today and monitor as we go. Wouldn't even be surprised if chase takes us into E NE. Good luck, everyone!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Liking eastern NE more and more. I just have a fear that the 500mb winds aren't going to veer enough up here or soon enough. 15z ruc making me almost like home.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm going to gamble on the I-29 corridor north of Omaha. I'm hoping there will be enough of a push there by late afternoon to force a cell or two up that will move across western Iowa on the backside of the debris. Leaving for target now - have fun everyone -

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Nick did you draw that? The shape of the day is Kenny from south park. I think I'm going to sit here for a bit longer. Try and stay as far south as I can and hope to be in a more isolated environment. Decent push trying to form south of the sfc low west of here with the best instability currently east of it. May drift to Vermillion and find another data spot but have some time I suppose. Can quickly get south from there if need be....or north, but not thinking that will be needed.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Im sitting up here in St. Charles, MN (between Rochester and La Crosse). Its terribly muggy, overcast, and drizzling. It looked pretty bleak when we pulled in for a data check. But I have relit my enthusiam upon seeing the clearing pushing in from the west on the sat and the ruc consistently deepening that surface low and upping the instability. We'll probably move further west in a bit.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

Sitting in Redwood Falls, MN, finally cleared the morning junk and warming up very nice, strong SE sfc flow. Good wi-fi connection too , just going to chill here until something happens. Anything that iniates in SD will come screaming my way anyways.

 

[Jordan Manderfield]

Leaving now for sw mn..some cells just started popping within the last half hour..red box out till 11pm in through most of central and south central mn..

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

iniation over SW MN, looks like 4 mini cells, going to continue to sit here in RWF to see which becomes dominant, although it looks like the Sern cell will be the play today.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Extensive line of severe thunderstorms rapidly developing across MN. Shear and instability quite impressive, and should advect into western WI later on. This may be the beginning of our derecho (or squall line, as others would say :wink: ). The southern-most storm looks like it may hold some tornado potential...