nickgrillo
EF5
Deep, moist convection has already initiated along the boundary in southeast IA -- in deference to a region of lowered sbLFC heights / eroded sbCINH (induced by strong sfc diabatic heating and moisture pooling along and south of the OFB). This convection should rapidly intensify as continued surface heating will erode any potential static stability within the inflow sector (allowing convection to feed off boundary layer parcels). Extremely favorable 0-6km deep-layer shear profiles (i.e. 45-55kts) and extremely large CAPE (i.e. SB parcel CAPE 3500-4500j/kg) will likely support a couple of cyclic supercells across southeastern IA and northern IL within the next few hours. Later, this could become a rather damaging wind event. I'm happy to see the insolation across southern MI... Favorable kinematic and thermodynamic profiles across the entire warm sector could possibly yield a derecho event this evening into tonight as initial supercells congeal into a synoptic-scale line.