06/09/05 FCST: Arlene

[Stuart Robinson]

General forecast post to track the impact of a possible tropical storm forming in the Gulf over the next 120 hours. If this forms it could ether enhance or reduce the mositure over the plains for the next few days. The UKMEY model has a TS/HUN makinging land fall at New Orleans by 12z on the 12 June and most tropical models are in agreement with this.

This alert has just been issued at 18z on 8th June.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT


WTNT 21 KNGU 081800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 081800Z JUN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N7 83.8W9 TO 21.4N7 85.6W9
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A 1004MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTEROMETRY WINDS PLACE A VERY WEAK CENTER OF
CIRCULATION NEAR 12N 82W. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT 200MB, A CLOSED LOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS OF SHEAR. ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH, CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORECAST IS NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72
HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA IS
84F(29C).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091800Z8

Mods ~ please adjust tiltle to conform to the rules ~ I am not sure about the date thing...

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Stuart, I'm watching this as well from Mobile. Here at school at the Coastal Weather Research Center the general consensus is for rapid organization.

So I guess we'll see ya again ver this way in the event of a landfall? Good meeting ya during Ivan. Take care.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

The NHC just issued a TS watch for Cuba!

WTNT21 KNHC 082050
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
2100Z WED JUN 08 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

 

[MClarkson]

well theres a bit more shear than id like to see... especially over a vulnerable depression. If it can make it past its infant stage than you have what should be relaxing shear and decent SSTs...

 

[Warren Eckels]

TD1 to become TS Arlene on 06/09

At 11:30 EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for the offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico north and west of 18 N - 81 W. The forecast calls for the storm to hit the northern Gulf Coast somewhere between SC LA and the western Florida Panhandle around sunset on Saturday with winds of 60 knots. (The forecast track takes Arlene over the Gulf coast just west of the MS-AL border.)

Edit: It might be interesting to see how Arlene interacts with the mess on the Plains that has been triggering convection from Michigan to Texas.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Looking at the latest water vapor loop you can see signs that she is wanting to get her act together. The convective bands on the east side of the storm are starting to curl back towards the center of circulation. I would guess in the next update or two we will have a T.S. Then the question will be how much will she weaken over Cuba. Once in the gulf conditions are much more favorable.

I don't know whether to root for development or not. I would love to chase West Tx on Friday but then again I would like to be on the coast if this storm gets going. At least I will have a choice. As of now I don't see TD#1 playing a significant role in Friday's Severe weather, but in the gulf that can change in a hurry! If I play the storm I am only two hours away from the Ms gulf coast and will be able to take off at the last minute if needed. If I play the Tx panhandle I will have to leave very early tom. morning since it is a good ten hours. Is anyone planning on going to the coast??

My best guess on the storm is Pensacola and will make landfall Saturday evening as a strong TS with very little action on the west side of the circulation.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

FYI on the advisories, etc.... the rules are the same for posting, say, a Tornado watch. There's no need to post the full advisory/discussion/etc. since we all know where to get it. During this tropical season keep your snipping to a minimum, and add comments/observations where possible.
Thanks!
mp

 

[Blake Michaleski]

10:24pm central at my apartment here in Mobile, AL...

Leaving around 4-5 AM targeting the Gulfshores, AL to Pensacola, FL area. Will have to monitor the track in the AM to make any necessary adjustments to the target area because of the wobbling track and the timing of the convective bursts.

I'm fairly confident this storm will reach hurricane status before landfall but shear is forecast to increase as the system nears the coastline so no surprise to me if it weakens back to TS status.

 

[Scott Olson]

Latest data indicates Arlene is nearing hurricane force. NOGAPS has Arlene making landfall tommorow afternoon between 18z-21z. Latest NAM has 400 m2/s2 0-3km SRH and 30-40 kts 0-1km Wind shear for AL/MS tommorow. More impressive is the 325 m2/s2 0-1km SRH bullseyed over Camden, AL. So some TC tornadoes do certainly seem possible even with all the rain bands and lack of any substantial heating.

Definately should affect quality moisture for the plains
http://128.121.193.153/CENTRAL_ETA_SFC_SLP...INDSLI_24HR.gif

 

[Jeff Gammons]

Im sitting just west of Pensacola Beach, FL on the Island having a pizza waiting on the RF quad early saturday. Alot of left over damage remains from Hurricane Ivan.

Large media mess down the road at the local beach. I have noticed alot of the large sat trucks heading for the mainland bridge.

Anyways in place for Arlene and will update tomorrow.

 

[MClarkson]

anyone else think the IR presentation just completely fell apart in the last few hours???

 

[Brandon Clement]

It looks as though it lost a lot in the last few frames. If you notice in the SW quadrant of the storm really took a lot of air in from the western gulf. The western gulf air is a lot drier than what it has been in the carribean so it could weaken rapidly. This is what occured with Hurrican Lilly just before it came ashore in La. Also you can see the center of circulation move from under the convection which is usually a strong sign of the storm falling apart. This all started happening when the storm tried to make the move to the west as HPC has indicated it will. Also the outflow got cut off on the NW side of the storm. Doesn't look good for now, but it could pull the convection back around the eye and start pulling air in from the SE again. I think the next outlook is going to push the landfall a little farther to the east. It is also beginning to run into some of the shear that Blake was talking about. Good luck to everyone out there and be safe!

Here is a link to the GOES floater in case anyone wants it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/fl...t-ir4-loop.html

 

[Sam Sagnella]

In the last few radar updates on the KMOB site, it appears that an eyewall may be trying to form and an upgrade to hurricane status before landfall seems reasonable (although a 70mph TS and a 75mph HURR aren't too different).

 

[Blake Michaleski]

well since i have internet here i figure i'll give an update.


so far not too impressive, nice surf and a little wind but nothing major yet.

I'm in Perdido Key, FL and I'll probably remain here. I was going to head on to p'cola but i think the bridge shuts down at 50 mph. maynot be that high yet but i'll just sit here.


on sat it looks as if the eye is clear, if so then staying here wont be so bad.

 

[Andy Rice]

In the last few radar updates on the KMOB site, it appears that an eyewall may be trying to form and an upgrade to hurricane status before landfall seems reasonable (although a 70mph TS and a 75mph HURR aren't too different).

Unless NHC is trying to verify a hurricane forecast