06/02/05 TALK: Plains

  • Thread starter Thread starter Mike Hollingshead
  • Start date Start date
From another site, the numbers are somewhat different.

RUC 3 HOUR FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID 23Z

DODGE CITY KS:
Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5806.35 m
Freezing level: 580.43 mb = 4604.41 m = 15106.15 ft
Wetbulb zero: 654.23 mb = 3625.81 m = 11895.54 ft
Precipitable water: 1.21 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 46.25 %
Est. max temperature: 29.59 C = 85.26 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 781.07 mb = 2139.04 m = 7017.75 ft T: 15.75 C
700-500 lapse rate: 7.67 C/km
ThetaE index: 29.25 C Layer 900.0- 600.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 770.70 mb = 2252.64 m = 7390.48 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 13.94 g/kg
Conv temperature: 29.49 C = 85.08 F
Cap Strength: 1.34 C
Lifted Index: -5.96 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb: -9.80 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 1.34 C
Showalter Index: -5.73 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Total Totals Index: 54.82 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 30.16 C
Cross Totals Index: 24.66 C
K Index: 28.78 Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 533.18 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -4.89 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+): 3420.84 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel: 82.71 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 0.00 J/kg
Cap Strength: 0.19 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 781.07 mb = 2139.04 m = 7017.75 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 776.07 mb = 2193.62 m = 7196.84 ft
Equ Level (EL): 706.07 mb = 2991.35 m = 9814.04 ft
B at Equ Level: 78.69 J/kg

Wind level data
Storm motion: 252 at 19 knt

ENID OK:
Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5790.35 m
Freezing level: 587.29 mb = 4533.54 m = 14873.65 ft
Wetbulb zero: 644.97 mb = 3768.97 m = 12365.24 ft
Precipitable water: 1.43 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 49.02 %
Est. max temperature: 31.33 C = 88.39 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 803.82 mb = 1920.52 m = 6300.83 ft T: 16.29 C
700-500 lapse rate: 8.01 C/km
ThetaE index: 28.38 C Layer 950.0- 450.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 764.84 mb = 2343.24 m = 7687.72 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 14.18 g/kg
Conv temperature: 34.55 C = 94.20 F
Cap Strength: 1.86 C
Lifted Index: -6.19 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb: -6.91 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 1.86 C
Showalter Index: -5.84 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Total Totals Index: 54.74 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 29.15 C
Cross Totals Index: 25.59 C
K Index: 29.54 Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 529.30 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -4.60 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+): 2767.60 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel: 74.40 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 0.00 J/kg
Cap Strength: 0.87 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 803.82 mb = 1920.52 m = 6300.83 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 798.82 mb = 1973.96 m = 6476.15 ft
Equ Level (EL): 778.82 mb = 2189.37 m = 7182.90 ft
B at Equ Level: 65.63 J/kg

Wind level data
Storm motion: 260 at 17 knt

GOODLAND KS:
Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5779.33 m
Freezing level: 594.97 mb = 4376.97 m = 14359.95 ft
Wetbulb zero: 668.45 mb = 3427.13 m = 11243.71 ft
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 39.61 %
Est. max temperature: 27.57 C = 81.62 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 757.77 mb = 2381.82 m = 7814.27 ft T: 13.22 C
700-500 lapse rate: 7.46 C/km
ThetaE index: 25.37 C Layer 850.0- 650.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 702.34 mb = 3018.11 m = 9901.83 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 11.46 g/kg
Conv temperature: 29.72 C = 85.50 F
Cap Strength: 1.78 C
Lifted Index: -4.15 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb: -6.71 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 1.78 C
Showalter Index: -4.09 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Total Totals Index: 53.72 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 30.47 C
Cross Totals Index: 23.25 C
K Index: 26.05 Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 311.77 Risk: Showers and thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -3.77 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+): 2779.83 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel: 74.56 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 0.00 J/kg
Cap Strength: 0.00 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 757.77 mb = 2381.82 m = 7814.27 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 752.77 mb = 2437.71 m = 7997.63 ft
Equ Level (EL): 172.77 mb = 13031.30 m = 42753.08 ft
B at Equ Level: 2741.48 J/kg

Wind level data
Storm motion: 252 at 17 knt

RUSSEL KS:
Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5764.25 m
Freezing level: 590.89 mb = 4454.67 m = 14614.87 ft
Wetbulb zero: 642.64 mb = 3770.56 m = 12370.47 ft
Precipitable water: 1.37 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 58.79 %
Est. max temperature: 28.74 C = 83.74 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 838.62 mb = 1540.09 m = 5052.71 ft T: 17.29 C
700-500 lapse rate: 7.81 C/km
ThetaE index: 20.58 C Layer 750.0- 450.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 796.29 mb = 1981.85 m = 6502.06 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 13.02 g/kg
Conv temperature: 28.44 C = 83.20 F
Cap Strength: 1.97 C
Lifted Index: -4.99 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb: -5.09 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 1.97 C
Showalter Index: -4.87 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Total Totals Index: 53.85 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 28.43 C
Cross Totals Index: 25.42 C
K Index: 33.47 Risk: 60-80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 517.15 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -3.61 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+): 1582.79 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel: 56.26 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 78.45 J/kg
Cap Strength: 1.56 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 838.62 mb = 1540.09 m = 5052.71 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 633.62 mb = 3885.43 m = 12747.32 ft
Equ Level (EL): 183.62 mb = 12701.69 m = 41671.72 ft
B at Equ Level: 1567.67 J/kg
Max Parcel Lev (MPL): 113.62 mb = 15672.22 m = 51417.42 ft

Wind level data
Storm motion: 247 at 20 knt

WICHITA KS:
Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5768.05 m
Freezing level: 586.83 mb = 4529.29 m = 14859.71 ft
Wetbulb zero: 637.32 mb = 3855.89 m = 12650.39 ft
Precipitable water: 1.35 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 52.38 %
Est. max temperature: 29.97 C = 85.95 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 813.20 mb = 1817.40 m = 5962.52 ft T: 15.87 C
700-500 lapse rate: 7.72 C/km
ThetaE index: 22.72 C Layer 950.0- 450.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 732.42 mb = 2702.08 m = 8864.98 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 12.60 g/kg
Conv temperature: 35.29 C = 95.52 F
Cap Strength: 2.55 C
Lifted Index: -4.06 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb: -3.19 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 2.55 C
Showalter Index: -3.47 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Total Totals Index: 51.88 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 27.73 C
Cross Totals Index: 24.15 C
K Index: 31.39 Risk: 60-80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 445.68 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index: -3.06 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+): 1914.61 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel: 61.88 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 41.39 J/kg
Cap Strength: 1.00 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 813.20 mb = 1817.40 m = 5962.52 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 658.20 mb = 3591.77 m = 11783.89 ft
Equ Level (EL): 178.20 mb = 12924.16 m = 42401.57 ft
B at Equ Level: 1909.30 J/kg
Max Parcel Lev (MPL): 108.20 mb = 16000.96 m = 52495.97 ft

Wind level data
Storm motion: 257 at 17 knt

Mike
 
Surface low over OK panhandle deepened a couple of millibars over last hour, w/ general pressure drop in and around the watch box area of 4 to 6 millibars over last two hours. Meanwhile, SW end of the MCS around Hutchinson finally looks to be collapsing - perhaps an outflow boundary will propogate out of that. Very feint signs of some boundary on radar to the W of Enid, w/ theta-e values hitting 360 in same general area.
 
Outflow boundary very visible on radar and satellite east of DDC through Ness, Hodgeman, Edwards, and Kiowa counties, and extending southward into northwestern OK. This boundary has been nearly stationary. Satellite shows a second ofb moving southwest towards this boundary in Rush, Pawnee, Stafford, and Reno counties. This area bears close watching IMO. MLCIN has been decreasing here over the last several hours per RUC analysis, with MLCAPE approaching 3000. Collision of these two outflow boundaries in combination with increasing moisture convergence, increasing upper level divergence, and theta-e advection could be sufficient for storm initiation within the next 1-2 hrs. Second area to watch is north of the goodland area, where satellite shows another ofb from kit carson county, co, through Cheyenne county, KS, and Hitchcock county, NE pushing northwestward. It will be interesting to see how current convection east of denver interacts with this boundary
 
Sitting in Limon, CO right now using Wifi at a hotel. I am tempted to go southeast toward west central KS and hope the CAP breaks, but will most likely go north for the guaranteed score as the convection northeast of Denver heads into better moisture. The 500mb winds are 40 kts up near Ft. Morgan and Deep Layer 0-6km shear of 50-55 kts is more than sufficient for supercell sustainment. I would like some more moisture but continued upslope boundary layer flow from the east should raise Tds into the low 50s and provide a possibility for some tornadoes. I will probably wait here another 30 minutes and decide which cell to jump on north of here so I can head up HW 71.
 
We just passed through Childress headed north. Obs off the weather station are 93/66!

Can see a weak area of CU just to the SE of Childress that doesn't look very promising and absolutely NOTHING but cirrus to the north as far as we can see. Very skeptical of the cap breaking this far south at this time.

Going to go ahead and continue north and watch what happens. heh, so much for staying in my home area eh?
 
And it Starts....Be careful and good luck to all..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

STEVENS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 625 PM CDT(525 PM MDT)

* AT 536 PM CDT(436 PM MDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
HUGOTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL STEVENS COUNTY...
HUGOTON...
WOODS...
 
The cap has been broken is sw KS. I assume this storm is very high based ~1700m, but if the cap continues to erode to the east, storms could fire in slightly better air. Very nice storms firing in CO, but they need to move to the ne to stay in good juice. The storm s of Ft. Morgan is taking a hard right turn, which will eventually lead it to dryer air, but it does appear to be putting on a show in the meantime. Please stay out of this core, as it is very intense, now hitting > 80 dbz. Good luck to all, we’ll be waiting for your reports.

EDIT: Just as I posted, I see a tor waring was issued for sw KS good luck to all.

I told you I’m usually wrong
:shock: :lol:
 
Looks like the cell tried. VIL has dropped to around 30 from the upper 50s, and the top has come down a lot. With that said, looks like some other activity may try to form to the ENE of the cell.
 
Originally posted by Aaron Kennedy
Pretty weak tornado warning after looking at the velocity from DDC.

Aaron
Click to expand...

I would have to agree. Maybe a sheriffnado? Looks like a new cell starting to the ne of this one in Gray county. Good signs.
 
From WFO DDC -

WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 1 MILE NORTH OF HUGOTON.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUGOTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

Eh, at least it was something for those out there. :)
 
Just south of Canadian, TX now Looking back NW can see a bit of a line of TOWERING CU now. Looks promising. I hope it can pop. Looks to be maybe in the vicinity of Pampa or therebouts. 3 of them are looking rather stout now. *crossing fingers*
 
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