06/02/05 TALK: Plains

I'd be interested in two possible areas. The first is South-Western Kansas. By looking at the ETA, I like this area because it is just slightly north of the dryline bulge and the CAPE is nice and there may just be enough forcing to break the cap (hopefully in a few isolated places). Not convinced that the cap will break, though (I'd want to see a sounding), but if it does, I think it could be a nice day. The second place I'd monitor would be Southwest Nebraska. The convection currently going through the area could leave some form of outflow boundary. Also, if the low tracks slightly south of where the models are currently projecting it, it would put a higher jet over that general area. Good CAPE values seem to span that far north too, so I think that if things set up favorably there tomorrow (too soon to tell for sure), I'd be keeping my eye on that area as well. Unfortunately, I'll be asleep during that time. My concerns in this area are the midlevel flow...it seems pretty puny thus far. The forecasted shear is much better in Kansas if things are able to initiate there. I agree that if things go further south it could be a nocturnal event as well when the LLJ kicks in.
 
Originally posted by Melissa Moon
I'd be interested in two possible areas. The first is South-Western Kansas. By looking at the ETA, I like this area because it is just slightly north of the dryline bulge and the CAPE is nice and there may just be enough forcing to break the cap (hopefully in a few isolated places). Not convinced that the cap will break, though (I'd want to see a sounding), but if it does, I think it could be a nice day. The second place I'd monitor would be Southwest Nebraska. The convection currently going through the area could leave some form of outflow boundary. Also, if the low tracks slightly south of where the models are currently projecting it, it would put a jet max right over that general area. Good CAPE values seem to span that far north too, so I think that if things set up favorably there tomorrow (too soon to tell for sure), I'd be keeping my eye on that area as well. Unfortunately, I'll be asleep during that time.
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I agree with you Melissa: north of dry line bulge could be a good place. This situation is so much similar to last 11 may; I and a lot of chasers headed toward North Kansas and convection that developed over there on the warm front was supercellular but there was not much cap and there was no tornadoes. Instead in south Kansas developed a couple of good supercells that spawned tornadoes on late evening in Ulysses KS(9.00 pm) .
So...Another hot spot :wink:
 
I cannot remember the last time Eastern Colorado had a 15% hatched for tornadoes OR Denver launching an 18z sounding. This oughta be an incredible day out east...
 
As of right now, we're targeting Goodland, KS. I want to be up there before initiation so we'll probably be departing ICT between 9 and 10. My HR call sign is KC8OFK, in case anyone heres me on the radio. I want to be close to a north/south route IN CASE the cap were to break further south earlier than forecast. It does look to be a good day across eastern Colorado and NW KS. :D
 
I am in the same boat as Chris. I will be heading for Goodland initially. I plan on dropping South as soon as anything shows signs of developing along the dryline. Looks to be a very good chase day with tornadoes likely IMO. Good luck to everyone today. I need to get my butt in gear and get out of town.
 
Same plans here...


Leaving for Goodland/Burlington area in next 30 minutes.

Am going to initially target the storms that form in E CO/NW KS E of SFC LOW. Will drop south if dryline shows signs of coming alive SW KS... you can get from the Colby/Oakley area to Liberal in 2 hours.

Good luck to everyone.. and have fun!
 
Looks like a clear sky bust or a monster supercell producing all modes of severe for us today. I am initally targeting Woodward-Dodge City, but I don't plan to be ready to be there until about 4, as the cap doesn't look to break until about that time. Noon Departure time or so for us, maybe closer to one, although that'll be hindering our ability to get north if we needed to.

TDs are up to near 70 on the OK/KS border already and at the house we hit 71 not too long ago but its back down to 69 and holding steady for awhile. To me, I think there's gonna be a supercell or two around today, producing all modes of severe and possibly some of it significant (more in line to think the hail might be a bit of basketball size or something)

I'd watch those core-punches today and steer clear of RFDs. :D
 
I'm gonna gamble and dare the cap to break in SW Kansas. If you believe the ETA, there won't be convection south of I-70 in Kansas through 10pm. If you believe the RUC, there won't be convection anywhere in Kansas through 10pm. Windfields are excellent (by 2005 standards) in SW KS/NW OK and I'm willing to bake under the themrocap and wait for the explosion. Target as of now is still the Englewood/Liberal corridor.

Chasers who lurk in SW KS today long enough might be rewarded nicely.
 
If you are coming through North Platte, NE and need a chase partner to split expenses the next couple days drop me a line...

Thanks,
Scott Olson

Gotta love those crappy transmissions!
 
Looking at the regional surface obs shows that we have a small area of ~70 tds coming north right now as AVK is at 70 as is END, looks like out by the dryline things are still in the lower 60s. I'm wondering how far east the dryline will mix today. I'm still planning on gambling on NW OK/SW KS. New RUC shows the thermonuclear cap at 25c all up and down the dryline, but it also shows some decent convergence in SW KS. Hopefully things work out, we'll see everyone out there today!
 
Chase target for today, June 2

Chase target:
20 mi N of Lamar, CO. HW 287 is a paved N/S road, while the road network becomes very sparse to the west of there.

Timing:
Storm initiation 6 PM CDT or 5 PM MDT.

Storm type:
Isolated supercells with large hail along with a small chance for a tornado or two. Storms will evolve into a large complex after dark with a severe wind threat along with lightning.

Discussion:
Shortwave energy rotating around a deep upper-trough will provide support for convection along a dryline which will move east through the late afternoon hours. Moisture is plentiful to the east of this feature, as is noted by ST in the visible satellite. SFC dewpoints are generally around 60F to the east of the target area, and both the RUC and NAM initialized well with regard to dewpoint, temperature, and wind fields at 12Z. 12Z DDC sounding shows a 150mb deep moist layer, while AMA is 50mb deep. Both soundings also showed large hodograph curves below 700mb.

By 22Z today, the dryline will push through the target area. Storms should initiate in the eastern mountain range by mid afternoon, while anvils from these storms should stay north of US-50. Additional storm development will occur along the dryline late in the afternoon. Ample instability along with excellent shear parameters (deep layer shear to 50 kts along with 0-3km SRH to 300 m^2/s^2) will support supercells with a good storm structure and large hail. Temperature/Dewpoint spreads around 30F and LCL levels around 1800m AGL will tend to minimize tornado chances.

- bill
 
I won't be chasing until Friday, but if I were out today, I would seriously consider W Central OK. Cap looks to be very strong over central TX panhandle (LSI of 9) but much weaker in an area from ~Woodward down to I-40. With LCL & LFC heights practically equivalent at 1,400m and strong wind crossover with height, chances of initiation and classic mode look pretty decent. Although lack of surface moisture convergence in the area, dry line looks to be very sharp today and lapse rates out ahead may approach absolutely unstable territory. Safer bet may very well be NW KS / NE CO, but if I were based out of OKC, I wouldn't hesitate to head out to W OK today.

EDIT: With actual position of surface low centered over KS/CO/OK Panhandle border - a bit east of forecast - should improve chances over this area. Surface moisture convergence already shows signs of building over panhandle areas. Dewpoint has already reached 70td in Chickasha as of 11:00am.
 
Originally posted by Chris_Sanner
Looking at the regional surface obs shows that we have a small area of ~70 tds coming north right now as AVK is at 70 as is END, looks like out by the dryline things are still in the lower 60s.

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I don't know if anyone has noticed this, but Alva's dewpoint has been reading a bit high all spring. Compared to other readings from ASOS and the OK Mesonet, I'd say it's 2-3 degrees too high. Anyone else have some input on this?

Otherwise, if I was heading out today, I'd target Goodland or Colby.

Good luck everyone!
Rodney
 
Well, I'm halfway there in terms of wiggling my way out of work for today... one job down, one to go... should be leaving campus about noon and heading down to talk to my other boss face-to-face in hopes that begging from my knees will get me out. Sheesh.. I'm so pathetic...

A side note, we currently have 666 topics in TA right now... a very bad number to have sitting with you on a day like today... be safe everyone!
 
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