Melissa Moon
EF5
I'd be interested in two possible areas. The first is South-Western Kansas. By looking at the ETA, I like this area because it is just slightly north of the dryline bulge and the CAPE is nice and there may just be enough forcing to break the cap (hopefully in a few isolated places). Not convinced that the cap will break, though (I'd want to see a sounding), but if it does, I think it could be a nice day. The second place I'd monitor would be Southwest Nebraska. The convection currently going through the area could leave some form of outflow boundary. Also, if the low tracks slightly south of where the models are currently projecting it, it would put a higher jet over that general area. Good CAPE values seem to span that far north too, so I think that if things set up favorably there tomorrow (too soon to tell for sure), I'd be keeping my eye on that area as well. Unfortunately, I'll be asleep during that time. My concerns in this area are the midlevel flow...it seems pretty puny thus far. The forecasted shear is much better in Kansas if things are able to initiate there. I agree that if things go further south it could be a nocturnal event as well when the LLJ kicks in.