06/02/05 TALK: Plains

I wish good luck for everybody out today; unfortunately I’m stuck at work, but will be out and about tomorrow thru Sunday. With that said, I’m not as keen on today as some people are, I do like the area ene of the surface low, around liberal to Garden City. There is early cloud clearing in this area, which will allow surface heating and should drive cape values up to near 3000. There is also good surface convergence as the southerly surface winds wrap around the low. But with Td’s in the low to possibly mid 60’s and T ~ 90f, and strong cap (700 mb T ~ 13 – 14c), I think were looking at the same old sh*t. To coin Shane’s phrase “A High Based Riskâ€. I do think there will be some good storms form off the CO Front Range and move into the eastern plains, which should provide an opportunity for supercells, hail, and maybe an isolated tornado, similar to what we have been seeing the last couple of weeks. I hope I’m wrong, I haven’t been right to many times this year, so maybe things will turn out great today. Good luck to all and maybe we’ll see you tomorrow.
 
Rodney Price wrote:

"I don't know if anyone has noticed this, but Alva's dewpoint has been reading a bit high all spring. Compared to other readings from ASOS and the OK Mesonet, I'd say it's 2-3 degrees too high. Anyone else have some input on this?"

Yes, I notice some stations tend to run a bit higher. However, these Tds in W OK seem to be legit, at least along a thin N/S gradient - Watonga reporting 68td, Chickasha 70td, Lawton 68td. I'm still bullish on this area later this afternoon.
 
Originally posted by Mike Johnston
Rodney Price wrote:

Yes, I notice some stations tend to run a bit higher. However, these Tds in W OK seem to be legit, at least along a thin N/S gradient - Watonga reporting 68td, Chickasha 70td, Lawton 68td. I'm still bullish on this area later this afternoon.
Click to expand...

I agree to an extent that W OK looks pretty good. At least I hope so because that is what I am stuck with due to work. I will be heading out around 4pm from OKC and target Elk City, OK (1.5 hr drive). from there I can bust north or south if need be. There are two things that will hinder our hopes. The cap and the LCLs. But it is there so I will take the gamble. The great thing is if it does happen it will be like chasing in the 70's and 80's and I will probably be one of only a select few there because all the other chasers will be in KS & NE. lol

Mick
 
DDC 18z sounding shows a tough, but breakable cap with a 700 T of 15 deg C. Eyeballing it shows probably a convective temp of 94-95 F, which is not likely to be reached at this stage with the cloud cover. Only hope is the low, which according to analysis looks to be building to the NE, approaching Garden City at this time. I'm still on the fence for this one, the farthest I will probably go is Woodward if at all. Good luck to you all out there already.
 
We're sitting near the little town of Oakley, Kansas trying to figure out what to do. Tornado watch for the NE 1/4 of Colorado. Whats everyone else doing?
 
today

Decided to hold off on chasing today because I wasn't able to take off as quick as previously thought and because the "best" storms will be in Northwest Kansas, colorado etc. and I won't be able to make it in time, good luck though and stay safe to all you who are chasing today, looks like it could get VERY interesting! :D
 
Keeping an eye on our "contrarian" setup in W OK, dry line bulge now appears to be taking shape over N TX panhandle, w/ instability continuing to build out ahead (lifted indices of -7 to -9.) As far as possibilities for initiation, CIN showing signs of erosion in 2 areas - one up towards the Enid area, and another down south of I-40, w/ LFC heights falling in the area around Enid. Although initiation is more of a question mark further south, payoff may be greater there w/ effective bulk shear 50-55kts, and 0-3km EHI values of 4 to 6 and building.
 
At the Goodland library, & apparently some chasers have already been thru here. Trying to decide which redbox to be in today, as the S CO low building in this direction makes me want to stay north, while the SFC low near the panhandles makes me want to drop S to Sharon Springs or beyond. Really would like to see a couple more Td in this area. Suppose the plan is to drive a bit into clear skies/vision field and wait. Will be here probly an hour or so unless something goes off. Anyone wanting to trade cell #s for field cooperation pm me and I"ll get it in a bit, or show up @ the Goodland LIbrary :D
 
The problem with so far east (Enid) is that the dryline has not moved a whole hell of a lot sense 10am (probably only 75 miles or so) (KAMA). I don't see the dryline making it to the OK border by sun down, but then again that depends on where the low is moving. Anyway I am thinking about adjusting my target a little farther NW probably. I think I am going to be behind the clock but the storms (if they develop) will not move to fast.

Stilll taking the chance.

Mick
 
For all of those chasing today and in the future, it may be a little known fact that TTU occasionally launches an afternoon sounding from the field site at old Reese AFB. They did today, so anyone interested in the W OK target area may be inclined to go to www.mesonet.ttu.edu and click on "Mesonet Sounding Data" - where you'll find the June 2, 2005 file overlaid on Skew T. Low level winds don't look that great in the sounding, but it looks like it was west of the dryline at the time of the sounding (18Z). Since then, the winds have backed some in LBB.

It may be nice to see compare some actual mid-day obs to the often questionable RUC analyses.
 
 
Currently in Colby. Going to head back to Oakley and drift down towards the Scott City area. Think initiation ENE of SFC LOW invof Russel Springs, Scott City, Garden City line by 00z.
 
Currently in route towards Childress, TX. Just analyzing surface obs from the TTU mesonet appears that the nose of that dryline bulge at 3pm was in the vicinity of Quitaque, TX. Currently just south of Floydada, which is south of Quitaque, visual observation shows us just west of the edge of the cirrus and starting to see the first tiny CU developing just to our north that as increased in areal coverage quite a bit in the last 10 min or so. Still small wiffs of CU, but its the first convective sign I have seen so far.

Current ob from my wx station here just south of Floydada 91/60 almost calm winds.
 
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