06/02/05 TALK: Plains

Mike Hollingshead

For discussion regarding Thursday. I figure this will be needed sooner or later and half suprised to see little mention of the day. I'm pretty pumped about Thursday's prospects on the high plains, namely the NE panhandle. I'll either leave that morning or maybe chase sw SD Wed for giggles and drop south on Thursday. Whatever happens on Thursday should be spinning pretty good with sw 500 flow at 40knots and a backed low level jet out of the se. I hope some real moisture can finally get its butt up there by Thursday.

http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/CENTRA...EX-BRN_60HR.gif

http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/CENTRA...OS_SCP_60HR.gif
 
Felt bad seeing this thread sit here with no replies all day, when Thursday is shaping up as a totally nice-looking possibility ... So here's my take, for what it's worth - the SPC strengthens midlevel flow to 50-60kts across Nebraska, also forecasting MLCAPE in excess of 3000j/kg (with evidently plenty of advection) ... while the outlook language indicates convection across a lot of Nebraska on Thursday, there is greater focus on SW Nebraska, where best shear from the LLJ will open the door for tornadoes. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on Thursday during the day Wednesday to see how models handle as time frame gets closer. But I'd say definitely worth watching as a possible 'day before the event' day (and sometimes these 'day before' days end up becoming the big days too)!
 
But I'd say definitely worth watching as a possible 'day before the event' day (and sometimes these 'day before' days end up becoming the big days too)!

That aint no lie! Case in point May 4, 2003, If my memory serves me correctly there was some pretty wild severe weather on May 3, 2003 all over the plains states. I think that got the atmosphere even more fired up, hence the outbreak in Eastern KS and Western/SW Missouri on the 4th. I see very similar scenerio setting up with this one. My guess is the storms will initiate in SW NE/NW KS late tomorrow afternoon, and head E/SE during the evening, and will likely leave outflow boundaries all over the place. When (and if) clearing occurs during the day Friday, that could spell big time storms for Friday afternoon and evening. That's just an educated guess at this point, I don't want to get jinxed by mother nature.
 
Thursday still looks pretty good, if not quite as good as it did last night. Target area moves S and E a bit, looking more like Goodland--McCook for initiation, which helps re: roads (no fun losing a storm moving E into the Sandhills). A good looking if challenging chase forecast day to begin several good days.
 
Northwest KS looks interestesting. Both the 06z GFS and 12z NAM prog solid instability along with inreasing shear during the evening. The NAM would suggest a mid to late evening show when the upper level winds ramp up. East/southeasterly terrain induced uplose flow is a bonus. Another area of interest to me given its on my turf and where chasers are far and few between is northwest Minnesota where the surface trough/front will interact with airmass recovering from nocturnal MCS. Very stout bulk layer shear will be in place along with some, but limited, directional shear. The caviat here is degree of recovery/instability in wake of MCS. Low LCLs/LFCs would offer atleast a chance of tornado but also offer the risk of grunge visibility. Contrary to popular belief, northwest MN within about 50 miles of the Red River is rather devoid of trees making good chasing pssible.
 
Chase partners and I plan on heading out from Norman around 6-7am, treking up to the Salina, KS area. From there, hope to head out west towards Oakley and the Hwy 83 corridor (good north~south option).

Hoping initiation will hold off until around 4pm.

This should be a fun "mini" chase vacation, with Thursday, Friday, Saturday and potentially Sunday being active throughout the plains.

Hope to see many of you out there, and best of luck to all.

If you happen upon a red Ford Explorer with a big satellite dish on top, and OU emblems, give us a "howdy."

I hope this weekend proves fruitful for us all. * Caviat to this post... COULD THIS BE THE WEEKEND WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR ????
 
I see strong instability up against the lift is in west central KS around Garden City, on the nose of the "jet" if you want to call it that. Anything south is on the wrong side of upper flow.

Looking at current moisture field composition suggests we may again struggle to realize ETA's happy-go-lucky ideas on return. My confidence in that model's ability to forecast moisture is shot.

Given the erratic resolution of sfc features with this system, I'd reserve judgement on a definitive target until tomorrow morninig obs. Looks like another good chase day for several potential targets.
 
06/02/05

Will be taking off tomorrow morning at around 9:30 am from CedarFalls Iowa and will travel to north central Kansas, hoping a warm front will fire up some good storms in north central Kansas and extreme southern Nebraska; hope it waits until at least 3 or 4 pm though....
 
I am really liking west central to SW Kansas tomorrow. Dewpoint should get into the mid 60's which should make for OK LCL heights. I am thinking a couple of tornadoes are a good possibility. Shear could be better, but 35kts is good enough. I will be late getting out of town so I probably won't make it to my target before storms start, but I am thinking I will be there before they get organized and have tornado potential. Good luck to everyone who heads out tomorrow.
 
I agree with Michael, except maybe just a little bit further south near the OK/KS border. If you notice the drastic increase between the 0-3km SRH values for 00z Fri and 06z Fri, it is very apparent that if the system was to speed up just a bit, we could see a possibility of significant tornadoes. Even still, with CAPES AOA 2500-3500 and SRHs of approx 200 m2/s2 at 0z, tornaodes will be possible.

The ETA has a concentrated area of precip broken out by 0z along the OK/KS border which makes me feel better considering the one thing I felt was lacking tomorrow was going to be a strong forcing mechanism.

If the models hold true to what the ETA is showing right now, there could be some strong nocturnal sups tomorrow night.
 
Honestly, the system doesn't impress me any more than the previous systems we have had this year. That said, there appears to be good potential of supercells and I would be out if I had nothing going on.

We are having a party at my apartment tomorrow for a friend's going away shindig so I'll be staying home. All be damned if this turns out to be the one big tornado day this year!

Aaron
 
6/2

Wow where did this cap come from! 850 mb temps will be 25C+ by 0 UTC in the target area of SW KS/OK/TX panhandles. The NAM shows precip by 18 UTC in the warm sector but I doubt this will be the main show. Warm advection/strong isentropic ascent will likely initiate elevated convection over west central OK. The clearing will likely be farther west where surface temps are progged to be into the 90's by evening. With an approaching upper level jet from the old vorticity maxima currently near the Baja, there should be enough divergence to initiate convection coupled with a strong dryline surge leading to ample surface convergence. The tornado threat looks to be best after 0 UTC when the LLJ gets cranking. There will be excellent turning in the lowest 6 km for supercells and these storms will be HUGE with 3-4000 j/kg CAPE progged.

I'm heading out tomorrow because I can't chase friday. Looks like Dodge City, KS for now, but we may reposition south into the panhandles where the best upper level divergence exists. Looks to be a late show, yet again, in Western KS.
 
I have my eye on 3 different areas after reviewing the 00z NAM.

1. SW KS/NW OK/extreme N TX pan

2. NE CO/extreme SW NE/NW KS

3. E TX pan/W and SW OK

I think area 1 is most likely to experience convective initiation early, along with a few tornadoes over NW KS/NE CO/SW NE.

Areas 2 and 3 are more conditional upon cap strength/local max conv, 3 especially. If the current NAM would verify, a strong likelyhood of supercells and tornadoes would exist over SW KS/NW OK/N TX pan after 23-00z. While Mid-level shear is indeed a bit weak, strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear should aid in an isolated supercell scenario. I agree with previous poster, if supercells do indeed form and can realize true 3500-4000 J/KG cape, 0-3km shear/SRH values near/after dark would present an increased tornado threat.

Farther S... feel cap may be very tough to break in this area. If a storm or two can initiate, supercells, initiatlly high-based due to high t/td depressions should form with a large hail threat, possibly a couple tornadoes after 0-1z.

All in all, quite a difficult forecast. Earlier today I was focused on NW KS.. I feel SW KS may be my play tomorrow though. Plan on departing ICT sometime in the morning am, will post a target before leaving.
 
Sitting in Ness City, KS for no other reason than there is a big "festival" going on which brings LOTS of people here every five years and it's my home territory.

If you're venturing through here on Hwy 283 or Hwy 96 tomorrow, be warned that there is a large area of town that is road-blocked for the festivities...........Hwy 96 looks to be a through avenue, but 283 will take a detour that WILL slow you down a bit.

Luckily, I just happen to be sitting in a good area and will probably head out by mid-afternoon. Depending on the looks of the dryline and the movement of the low, I will make the decision where to head in the morning.

Side note: If you find yourself crashing in the area after a long chase, come downtown to the beer garden. Plenty of fun to be had by chasers after a weary day :wink: Drop me a line and I'll give you a number :)

Tim
 
Originally posted by Philip Flory
I have my eye on 3 different areas after reviewing the 00z NAM.

1. SW KS/NW OK/extreme N TX pan

2. NE CO/extreme SW NE/NW KS

3. E TX pan/W and SW OK

I think area 1 is most likely to experience convective initiation early, along with a few tornadoes over NW KS/NE CO/SW NE.

Areas 2 and 3 are more conditional upon cap strength/local max conv, 3 especially. If the current NAM would verify, a strong likelyhood of supercells and tornadoes would exist over SW KS/NW OK/N TX pan after 23-00z. While Mid-level shear is indeed a bit weak, strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear should aid in an isolated supercell scenario. I agree with previous poster, if supercells do indeed form and can realize true 3500-4000 J/KG cape, 0-3km shear/SRH values near/after dark would present an increased tornado threat.

Farther S... feel cap may be very tough to break in this area. If a storm or two can initiate, supercells, initiatlly high-based due to high t/td depressions should form with a large hail threat, possibly a couple tornadoes after 0-1z.

All in all, quite a difficult forecast. Earlier today I was focused on NW KS.. I feel SW KS may be my play tomorrow though. Plan on departing ICT sometime in the morning am, will post a target before leaving.

About area 2 I'm starting to become diffident...There's not too much low level jet in those zones..Mmmm...From the other part there's stronger deep layer shear than Kansas. Anyway it looks better the zone of Colby with the more interesting combination and more chances for tornadic activity.
 
I'd be interested in two possible areas. The first is South-Western Kansas. By looking at the ETA, I like this area because it is just slightly north of the dryline bulge and the CAPE is nice and there may just be enough forcing to break the cap (hopefully in a few isolated places). Not convinced that the cap will break, though (I'd want to see a sounding), but if it does, I think it could be a nice day. The second place I'd monitor would be Southwest Nebraska. The convection currently going through the area could leave some form of outflow boundary. Also, if the low tracks slightly south of where the models are currently projecting it, it would put a higher jet over that general area. Good CAPE values seem to span that far north too, so I think that if things set up favorably there tomorrow (too soon to tell for sure), I'd be keeping my eye on that area as well. Unfortunately, I'll be asleep during that time. My concerns in this area are the midlevel flow...it seems pretty puny thus far. The forecasted shear is much better in Kansas if things are able to initiate there. I agree that if things go further south it could be a nocturnal event as well when the LLJ kicks in.
 
Originally posted by Melissa Moon
I'd be interested in two possible areas. The first is South-Western Kansas. By looking at the ETA, I like this area because it is just slightly north of the dryline bulge and the CAPE is nice and there may just be enough forcing to break the cap (hopefully in a few isolated places). Not convinced that the cap will break, though (I'd want to see a sounding), but if it does, I think it could be a nice day. The second place I'd monitor would be Southwest Nebraska. The convection currently going through the area could leave some form of outflow boundary. Also, if the low tracks slightly south of where the models are currently projecting it, it would put a jet max right over that general area. Good CAPE values seem to span that far north too, so I think that if things set up favorably there tomorrow (too soon to tell for sure), I'd be keeping my eye on that area as well. Unfortunately, I'll be asleep during that time.

I agree with you Melissa: north of dry line bulge could be a good place. This situation is so much similar to last 11 may; I and a lot of chasers headed toward North Kansas and convection that developed over there on the warm front was supercellular but there was not much cap and there was no tornadoes. Instead in south Kansas developed a couple of good supercells that spawned tornadoes on late evening in Ulysses KS(9.00 pm) .
So...Another hot spot :wink:
 
I cannot remember the last time Eastern Colorado had a 15% hatched for tornadoes OR Denver launching an 18z sounding. This oughta be an incredible day out east...
 
As of right now, we're targeting Goodland, KS. I want to be up there before initiation so we'll probably be departing ICT between 9 and 10. My HR call sign is KC8OFK, in case anyone heres me on the radio. I want to be close to a north/south route IN CASE the cap were to break further south earlier than forecast. It does look to be a good day across eastern Colorado and NW KS. :D
 
I am in the same boat as Chris. I will be heading for Goodland initially. I plan on dropping South as soon as anything shows signs of developing along the dryline. Looks to be a very good chase day with tornadoes likely IMO. Good luck to everyone today. I need to get my butt in gear and get out of town.
 
Same plans here...


Leaving for Goodland/Burlington area in next 30 minutes.

Am going to initially target the storms that form in E CO/NW KS E of SFC LOW. Will drop south if dryline shows signs of coming alive SW KS... you can get from the Colby/Oakley area to Liberal in 2 hours.

Good luck to everyone.. and have fun!
 
Looks like a clear sky bust or a monster supercell producing all modes of severe for us today. I am initally targeting Woodward-Dodge City, but I don't plan to be ready to be there until about 4, as the cap doesn't look to break until about that time. Noon Departure time or so for us, maybe closer to one, although that'll be hindering our ability to get north if we needed to.

TDs are up to near 70 on the OK/KS border already and at the house we hit 71 not too long ago but its back down to 69 and holding steady for awhile. To me, I think there's gonna be a supercell or two around today, producing all modes of severe and possibly some of it significant (more in line to think the hail might be a bit of basketball size or something)

I'd watch those core-punches today and steer clear of RFDs. :D
 
I'm gonna gamble and dare the cap to break in SW Kansas. If you believe the ETA, there won't be convection south of I-70 in Kansas through 10pm. If you believe the RUC, there won't be convection anywhere in Kansas through 10pm. Windfields are excellent (by 2005 standards) in SW KS/NW OK and I'm willing to bake under the themrocap and wait for the explosion. Target as of now is still the Englewood/Liberal corridor.

Chasers who lurk in SW KS today long enough might be rewarded nicely.
 
If you are coming through North Platte, NE and need a chase partner to split expenses the next couple days drop me a line...

Thanks,
Scott Olson

Gotta love those crappy transmissions!
 
Looking at the regional surface obs shows that we have a small area of ~70 tds coming north right now as AVK is at 70 as is END, looks like out by the dryline things are still in the lower 60s. I'm wondering how far east the dryline will mix today. I'm still planning on gambling on NW OK/SW KS. New RUC shows the thermonuclear cap at 25c all up and down the dryline, but it also shows some decent convergence in SW KS. Hopefully things work out, we'll see everyone out there today!
 
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