• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

05/31/08 FCST: OK/KS/MO

matt patterson

EF2
Joined
Oct 10, 2005
Messages
123
Location
Tulsa
May 31 OK/KS/ARK

Im kind of surprised to see that there is no thread concerning the potential in the plains today. SPC has gone to a MDT. With strong instability, great turning with height and one of those notorious boundries hanging out in NC OK and SC KS (HINT Last WKND) it could get interesting. There are several differences however (CAP STRENGTH) but there is enough potential to get me out on a saturday over great terrain. Good Hunting and watch out for the possible masses of people that are likely to show up.:D
 
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Apologies to Matt, but wanted to perfect the thread title for TA.
Im kind of surprised to see that there is no thread concerning the potential in the plains today. SPC has gone to a MDT. With strong instability, great turning with height and one of those notorious boundries hanging out in NC OK and SC KS (HINT Last WKND) it could get interesting. There are several differences however (CAP STRENGTH) but there is enough potential to get me out on a saturday over great terrain. Good Hunting and watch out for the possible masses of people that are likely to show up.:D
Click to expand...

The progs have been showing a pretty darn good shear and stability profile arcing back along the southern KS border for several days now. I kept quiet because SPC seemed very negative on the prospects, but what a change a few hours bring... now MOD risk with 10% TOR.

Heading toward Meade, KS, for later target refinement.
 
We're also headed out to southern Kansas and were surprised about the SPC increasing the risk to Moderate. We left Denver before 5 am this morning and my silly Sprint data service started acting up so we had to sit in Limon for 1.5 hours on the phone with level 2 tech support. Once my service was restored and I checked the data out again I was major league stoked about the increased risk for today. We will probably target Dodge City or perhaps as far east as Pratt today. The storms to the east and south are already working the atmosphere over, but I think the rich dews are more than enough to allow storms to fire further west later this afternoon. Will have to keep an eye out for outflow boundaries though as that always seems to be a focusing point for initiation.

Mark and Jane

PS - Hey Dave - good to see you're out chasing again at the same time as us. Maybe we'll get to meet!! PM me if you see this.
 
Nice directional shear along the borderlands today, with some great convergence and Theta-e nose sitting right over the state line by 0z. Clearing skies behind overnight MCS on vis sat. With 500mb straight out of the west at 40 kt, and 850s progged out of the south at 5-10, today might end up being quite cool. Looks like the ingredients are there, now we just need to stir the pot. Any thoughts on capping?

I'm in ... for a start around Medicine Lodge somewhere, probably.
 
The 14z RUC shows that the most intense development may end up being in the Winfield to Sedan KS corridor. Not sure how surface based this would be, but certainly the shear and instability would support a very strong supercell...and a tornado threat if it can indeed be surface based. If not, it could be a prolific hail producer and then a wind damage machine. Hmmmmm.
 
Woodward to Alva, OK is my target today for initial storms to pop and moving E/SE from there based on 12z NAM, 15Z RUC and current surface analysis. It looks like the best combo of instability, shear, low level convergence, and best low level flow. I am intrigued by the forecast 850mb speed max wouth of I-40, but looks like some moisture and mid level flow weakness. I'm betting that the low levela nd 850mb flow will be abit better than progged on the models in across NW OK. We shall see. :-) I'll be running a live stream today on my live chase page (link in my sig) for those interested. Good luck to all those heading out today!
 
Skip's Skew-T page has me refining our target to between Medicine Lodge KS to Alva OK based on all parameters I'm seeing. Looks like the best hope for some surface based action to get rooted in and hopefully take hold! Low LCLs, high LI, lots of CAPE and I like the shear profiles as well.
 
15C 700 MB Cap

I would be very careful and not being too far west at current time there is a 15C at 700 MB from WC-NW OK. The edge of the breakable cap is OKC-ICT then west to DDC. The surface says go between Woodward & Enid but mid levels says no way.
 
I could'nt agree with Jeff more, last few frames on the SPC mesoanalysis page shows the cap strengthening further.. shear both directional and speed wise is marginal. Now further east, convection may be a possibility by around 23Z.. from Ponca City/Stillwater, perhaps up to near Arkansas City, KS.

Mark McGowen and I will head out shortly and drift toward Stillwater. I am convinced that as the LLJ kicks in, that should give convection a boost by 0Z.
TORS will be few and far between but the threat will be there. Projected lapse rates in my outlook area and on towards T-Town suggest golfball to near baseball hail is possible and winds to 70mph in the stronger storms.

Cell: 405-226-2996
 
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In Enid, OK, at the moment using McD's Wifi - surface convergence is pretty good in this area. Also the heat axis is intersecting the moisture tongue right around this area.
 
looking at satellite (as well as out the window), looks like the best convergence at the moment is right in and around the Wichita area. Cap is holding presently but nearly all indications point to a high end severe backbuilding MCS. Hell of a day for Corfidi vectors for sure
 
Sitting west of Pond Creek, OK, right now. Sitting and waiting for the cap to break. This is probably my last chance as I have to be back at work on Tuesday.

Here's hoping....Can see the boundary slowly moving north on KVNX radar right now. Surface wind in this area are nice...just need to get that cap to break.
 
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looks like things are holding till 8 o'clock magic kicks in. Do see the blips on ICT of what Jeff was talking about. Quick glance at SPC meso, appears cap is starting to weaken in South Central KS. Will primarily have to rely on that as ICT doesnt launch unless LMT launches something

EDIT: 52 dBZ on KICT in SE Cowley Co
 
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