05/11/04 FCST: SD, NE, KS

[Tony Laubach]

Models are indicating a good chase day further north for Tuesday before working back South on Wednesday. Post your ideas, forecasts, and plans for the Northern Plains scenario setting up for Tuesday.

 

[Damon Shaw]

Looks like lee side cyclogenesis will take place near or just south of Rapid City on Tuesday. Warm front quickly moves north, with temps exceeding 80 and dewpoints in the 60's for parts of SD. Low level jet is impressive, but would like to see a more backing wind at surface. But this may occur along immediate warm front.
850mb temps are quite warm, and there should be a cap in place for much of the day. As upper level energy increases, this should break cap in South Dakota and in Northern & Western Nebraska. Further south, along dryline in West Kansas, storms will have a harder time sustaining themselves with weaker jet energy there.

I think that a moderate risk will eventually be issued for parts of SD, perhaps a small part of Nebraska. Though, it may not show up til the Day 1 Outlook. I am thinking about heading there.

Preliminary Target: Pierre, SD

 

[Bob Schafer]

Tuesday doesn't look very interesting to me, at least from today's 18Z eta run.

The moisture and the upper energy seem just a little too disconnected at 00Z Wed. 700 and 500VV's are.....unconvincing, too, but some serious VV's show up in MN.

I suspect the models are just confused at this point, mostly. I wouldn't be surprised if it all comes together by Tues.

I'll have to pass this up. Eighteen hours before 00Z Wed I'll be working and 1000 miles from Yankton.

Bob

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I agree PIR is the target. Nice to see that somewhat backed 850 jet up there. SFC winds should back as well...especially given and OFB from tonight which you'd think there would be.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Holy smokes the RUC is kinda sweet into SD this afternoon. Dang. 986 low by 21z. I'm guessing the new day one will be a tad different. Wish the warmfront wasn't going to be so far north. Time to get ready. For once we have 50knts at 500mb over a boundary too...yeesh...bout time.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_pir.gif

Mid 30s in c ND??? Hmmm I would take a wild guess at this and say the wf does not lift as far north as the ruc says. Then again it's already just a bit south of where the ruc says it will be by 21z. I say it goes nowhere from where it is now. That said, there could be a wicked setup along from nc SD east.

The current convection there should help keep this boundary right where it's at....hmmmmm.

New ruc bumped that wf south about 1/3 the state of ND by 18z.

Anyone else on here know what the reason is that nc SD ne along that front isn't risked higher for tors? I mean yikes! 12z ruc says "damn".

 

[Tony Laubach]

As for today, I may have to take my chances with the NE Panhandle as I won't be free to leave Denver til around 2:00pm. That only allows for a few hours to get into position. Yesterday, the storms worked well for me as I made my target area by 4:30. I figure if anything, I can catch a southern storm if thing ripen enough down south.. it's a short trip and its not too far out of the way from my target in Kansas for Wednesday, so I figure, why not! I'm not going to spend too much time in today's forecast as I am not going to have the time to make the prime areas in the Dakotas, so I'll just hope that luck prevails!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I find it interesting how the 1630z Day1 seems pretty optimistic about tornado chances, and even mentions that a strong tornado is possible this evening, yet only goes with 5% tornado probability. The wording doesn't seem to fit the probability graphic... Perhaps they are waiting a few hours to narrow down the most likely area within the mdt risk...

 

[Jeff Miller]

I agree, Jeff. I believe significant tornadoes will be possible today, with shear profiles more than supportive. Quite a moderate risk as wwll, and that mention of a "strong tornado" has to be getting some blood coursing in chasers today. We'll see what happens....but it looks to me like someone's gonna strike gold today.

I might add as a sidenote that I had a conversation with a well known Nebraskan chaser last night who told me they had a very strong gut feeling someone would get a strong tornado today...which this person said has happened before and was followed by strong tornadoes... IF this pans out, this person gets a Kit Kat bar...thats hardcore weather instinct.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Well.. I may get my luck after all as SPC dropped the MOD RISK southward into Northern Kansas, which means Nebraska isn't looking too bad! Somebody up there loves me! I'll be on my way northeast along I-76 at 2pm MDT in a mad hurry to get up there in time!

 

[Jared Mysko]

Guys, look at that boundry layer along the ND and SD border. Up to a foot and a half of snow is scheduled to fall in Winnipeg, Man., already a half a foot has fallen in 12 hours. The moisture is all in North Dakota and if that heat pushes north at all tonight, and the jet is going that way, it is going to be one interesting night. It is too dangerous as far as I can see for me to slide down there. Too much snow and freezing rain. South Dakota's temps are unreal though! 850 winds are looping left while 350 winds are looping right... i'm no expert but me thinks i will make some coffee this evening and do some virtual chasing! Those that are out there can contact me later for nowcasting. I'll be back around 4 or 5 pm.

Good luck and be careful to all.