04/29/05: TALK: OK/MO/AR/IL/KY/TN

[Marcus Opitz]

I think the best compromise between terrain and model tendencies will be the bootheel of MO. I have traversed down in the area there and it is FLAT. It will be interesting to see if this system slows down bringing the action further west. Though I doubt it could bring storm initiation further east than Little Rock, but I will keep my fingers crossed.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm on the road, right now, and will be in Arkansas probably by tomorrow. From what I glanced at, it's looking pretty intresting... and Day3 mentions "significant severe weather event" along with "long track tornadoes"...

 

[Ben Prusia]

12Z NAM and 6Z GFS are showing similar tracks for the storm system at 0Z Saturday. At 0Z Saturday, the 12Z NAM is showing a southerly and easterly track and positions the fast moving system near Paducah, KY. But the 6Z GFS is showing the upper level storm system at centered near Poplar Bluff, MO at 0Z Saturday. Overall, for chasing purposes, I prefer the slower GFS model as extreme SE Missouri is pristine chasing area as most of the area is flat.

 

[brody_clifton]

Me and Jeff, my nephew and chase partner, plan to leave NC Thursday, 4/28 around noon and begin the 14 hour drive to Fridays target area, and get a motel for Thursday night somewhere between Memphis and Little Rock on I-40. If anyone will be chasing in the area and wants to meet up Friday morning/midday before the storms fire to share forecasts or compare notes or whatever message me and we can exchange cell #'s etc.

 

[Ben Prusia]

Chase Chance as of 1000AM CDT: 50%
I plan on leaving at 8PM from Kansas City on Thursday to head to my proposed target area of either:

Hayti, MO
Poplar Bluff, MO
Jonesboro, AR

I will be on the northern storms of this system, hopefully close to the upper level Low. I plan to stay in the Mississippi River valley, as I am not planning to chase ANYTHING in the Ozark Mountains.

Just to remind everybody who will chase storms across the MS River:
There are only 5 Mississippi River crossings between Memphis and Cairo, IL. 2 of those crossings are at Cairo (NE of Poplar Bluff) and 2 are at Memphis. The only one that is between the two is at Interstate 155, SE of Hayti. There is at least 70-100 miles between river crossings, plan accordingly!

 

[Marcus Opitz]

I am about 50% sure as well, may leave during the early morning on fri, or late eve on thurs. I want to see the relative timing and maybee figure out if I can stay in st. louis thurs night..... I hate to drive east, but if the second comng of Christ is about to unfold I want to be there!!!!! :shock:

If I go, would anybody want to rondeveux somewhere near Se mo?

 

[Kelley Austin]

For anyone interested.

If anyone is interested, I live in Newport, AR about 80 miles north east of Little Rock or about 30 miles WSW of Jonesboro.

One thing to think about other than the Mississippi River crossings is the White River Crossings, if you start out around Little Rock you can cross the White River on I40 and a couple of other places upstream.

I would suggest starting either here in Newport or Jonesboro as you wouldn't have to worry about the White River at all. The area is nearly all flat farm land with great long distance views. Starting around this area will give you a choice, depending on the storm motion, of heading to Memphis, nearly due east of Newport or southeast of Jonesboro, or heading north east to Hayti, MO to cross the Mississippi.

You can PM me and maybe I can be of some help.

Kelley Austin

 

[Billy Griffin]

This is sooooooooo tempting for me to take Friday off and make the drive over to eastern Arkansas. A lot of the terrain over there is quite good, mostly flat and some wide open spaces. SE Missouri is also very good for chasing, and even some of the roads have square mile section roads, almost (but not quite) like our "section lines" here in OK.

I think it would be about a five hour drive from Norman to Little Rock, so a tank of gas should get me there. A tank driving around chasing, if it verifies, and another tank for the drive back.

I have a good friend there in Newport, AR (Kelley) who chased with me last year, so perhaps it's his turn :wink: to host me on a chase day !! :lol:

Good luck to all those who do venture over there. It just might set up where the terrain isn't too bad and there'll be some good roads !! :wink:

It always concerns me when these big outbreaks are called for in populated areas, as obviously the further east you go, the more populated areas and a lot of folks in those parts of the country just don't take the severe weather emphasis very serious. :roll:

I may wait for the Day 2 tomorrow, then decide if I'm going to take the day off and gamble the gas money for the drive over there. As Jeff said in an earlier statement, it sure seems like the moisture has been "zapped" out of the southern plains (so far) this year.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

I had put in for a vacation day for Friday when things looked to be more of an OK/TX chase. So if I get my accounting test out of the way I very well may head out from OKC Thursday night. I am going to wait until I am sure of storm mode and chase partner situation before I make a final decision though. I do not want to drive 1000+ mile round trip to see a squall line or be behind what seems to become a very fast moving supercell. It would be my first chase in AR or MO so I am very unfamiliar with the terrain so that is another drawback for me also.

Mick

 

[Mike Johnston]

As was mentioned about the scarcity of bridges across the Mississippi River between Memphis and Cairo, also beware, if the chase takes you further north, of the difficulty of traversing the river from Cairo up to St. Louis. I have travelled this area a few times recently, and it really can be a devil's choice for someone with an E/W objective. There's basically Cairo and Cape Girardeau, and the Cape Girardeau crossing - if going from MO into IL - is frustrating because you run into a natl. forest, and must either go 19m SSE or 12 M north before resuming an eastward direction. As for any crossing N of Cape Girardeau, you must go about 50m up to Chester, IL and beyond that all the way up to St. Lous. If your target is more oriented to southern IL than MO, I would set up in the relatively open spaces around Mt. Vernon with a pretty good road grid in the surrounding area.

 

[Dick McGowan]

looking good

Looking very good for Friday.......probably leave thursday night.....if anyone in KC area would like to go. PM me. I can't recall SPC calling for long tracked tornadoes , on Day 3 in awhile. I am unfamiliar with terrain, but sounds like what u guys are saying the Miss. river is hard to cross, so thanks for the info. Hope to see you guys out, This day has a special meaning to me, for a friend that died in a car crash 9 years ago to the day. So hopefully the man upstairs will give me some luck, Be safe,

dick

 

[Glen Romine]

Originally posted by Mickey Ptak
I am very unfamiliar with the terrain so that is another drawback for me also.

Mick

I was concerned with this as well, so I did a little digging. Terrain doesn't look that intimidating in parts - but the northwestern half of the state looks pretty bad.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/states/maps1/ar.gif

In the flatter portion of the northern half of the state, major highways radiate from Jonesboro:

http://www.smart-traveler.info/sitebuilder...of_arkansas.gif

So, anticipated cell motions of ENE appear unlikely to follow major roadways, and with the White River seperating the terrain regions, you'd likely want to set up east of it and wait for convection to come to you. But, as noted by Amos (and I agree), convective mode may not remain discrete by late afternoon into the evening based on the current forecast timings (which is when convection may reach this area), but these are strongly subject to change this far out. Biggest concern would be for a slightly slower and deeper system that would track the best conditions over the true Ozarks during prime time. NAM has trended more progressive in each run, but normal model bias is the opposite (ejecting too fast), so I'm in a hold pattern on this one still.

Glen

 

[Matthew Havin]

Hey guys..... don't forget about the generally unknown Crowley's Ridge! This topographical feature is a narrow swath of hills running N-S about 200-350 feet above the Delta valley in NE Arkansas..... running from just west of the Missouri Bootheel down to I-40 in St. Francis County. For the lazy types....it may pay to try to find a (relatively) high vantage point on the Ridge looking east or west.

 

[Jason Montano]

I'm considering this one. It would be a 13 hour drive to Memphis for me. I truly like the way the variables are setting up for some great storms. However, the storm motion would be tough to keep up with and there looks to be a small area of chaseable terrain along the Miss. R. basin. I'm gonna wait and see what the day 2 looks like and how 0z model runs look tonight, then make my decision.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Anyone interested in partnering up on this from Norman to eastern Arkansas, PM or email me. I will be taking my chase vehicle, so the only items needed would be some "chip in" $$ for fuel and an overnight bag / equipment you'd like to carry on the chase. Ford Explorer has plenty of room. Looks like an early AM departure from Norman is planned as of now. I'd rather make the drive over on Friday and wait to ensure no sudden changes occur that limit storm development occur rather than drive over the night before. However, that may be another option if things really look good on tomorrow's outlook.

Edit: if possible, and the funds allow, I might rather drive over the night before (thursday night) and have more time to "chill" before the chase rather than drive 7 hours then chase from there.

Again, if interested, for those who may be interested in partnering up on a chase, give me a yell. I have room for two persons.
Interested folks can also call me at 405-812-8031.