04/29/05: TALK: OK/MO/AR/IL/KY/TN

The chances of me chasing on Friday is around 101%. I'm really liking what I'm seeing, and I'm already officially on my chase vacation. I'm still in Grand Rapids with Kurt, and after both looking at the models this afternoon, our targets were pretty close to eachother. He was thinking Jonesboro, AR... And I was thinking Poplar Bluff, MO...

Most of the NWS offices are using strong wording in their HWO's, with Paducah saying a 'significant severe weather event' is possible...
 
Yeah, I'm getting closer to the 75% likelihood of chasing now that some folks are interested in partnering up on this one and sharing in on the gas funds. :wink:

I'm thinking Jonesboro as the initial target, then modify from there south, north, or on east.

Having been born and raised in Paducah, I'm VERY familiar with the terrain and the area road networks. And you're all right, there are only a few bridges that'll get you east of the MS River, but the nice thing is, the roads really aren't that bad. A lot more curves, and a few hills (more than what we're obviously used to here on the plains) but there are also many good "viewing" spots as we used to call them.

For those of us who use Sprint for data connection, there's some pretty good coverage all over NE Arkansas and SE Missouri, as I'm sure there's good data coverage for Cingular, etc. as well.

One thing I'd recommend to everyone, if the storms get close to the MS River and it required crossing over, to consider the following options as good crossings and road networks...

1. At Caruthersville, MO, there's the 155 bridge that winds south for a bit but then takes you on into west TN. The roads are very good through there and actually, Hwy 45 will take you on a good NNE trek up into west Kentucky and it's a "parkway" as we call it back home, or interstate-like road with good visibility along the way.

2. You can also cross at Cairo, IL then Wickliffe, KY. That one's a little more "tricky" since you have to cross two bridges, you'll actually cross both the Mississippi and the Ohio Rivers, then get into western Kentucky. The roads are a little more "hilly" as you get into west Kentucky, at least for a bit, then it flattens out some more around Ballard County and close to Paducah.

3. Crossing at Cape is a nightmare! You get into some really steep hills and a ton of forest-like tree coverage for a while until you get up to around Marion, IL. I wouldn't recommend it, but at the same time, if something's going on, there are some high spots to get up on and observe, but the southern-most portion of southern Illinois is not condusive to chasing at all... just an FYI.

Finally... no matter what state you're in, if we happen to cross the MS River, once you get about 50 miles east of it, you start getting into some really tricky countryside. The roads are hilly and narrow, there are a lot of hills, trees, etc. to deal with, and by then, you're probably looking at nightfall (unless the storm system blasts on east and initiation is further east than currently expected).

I'm hoping for initiation around Poplar Bluff ~ Jonesboro ~ Lonoke where it will remain discrete for a while. Then perhaps I may chase on towards back home (Paducah) and stop by to visit my folks. Haven't seen them since Christmas.

How's 'bout a chase party in good ole' Paducah, KY ??? We can unwind at my folks there! :wink: Boy, I'm sure anxious to see the look on all the folks' faces back home when we all show up in these strange looking vehicles! They'll think Armageddon has fallen !! :lol:
 
If the ETA is correct I'll likely sit this one out. If the GFS is right I might be making my first IL chase. I so hope the GFS is onto a good w and n trend of the system.
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
If the ETA is correct I'll likely sit this one out. If the GFS is right I might be making my first IL chase. I so hope the GFS is onto a good w and n trend of the system.

We shall see... NAM has been pushing things further south and east with each run... GFS still further west and deeper on the 18Z run, but I did notice a slight kick to the south and east between 60-66FH (only about 25km though, lol). Obviously there is still plenty of time for change, as the system isn't even coming ashore yet... It would be pretty sweet if we could get this thing to wrap up further west, and totally absorb the northern stream trough :D
 
Just for the heck of it, I was looking at the WV loop of the storm getting ready to come on shore in CA... I decided to try and "gauge" the upper level jet speed by measuring the distance the WV travels over a certain time. What I found, was the vapor was moving at nearly 110knts way down in that moisture plume near the Baja of California. The models only have 50-60knts in this area... Is clocking the watervapor a good way to judge upper level jet speed, and at around what level would this be? My guess was the 400-500mb range...

EDIT: Nevermind, I see it's upper level moisture at around 200mb, where the jet speed is around 100-110knts...
 
Looks to be a busy day across AR/W KY/W TN. ETA progged significant tornado parameters are 3-5 with Craven Significant Svr parameters exceeding 80. All parameters looking extremely favorable.

Missouri bootheel or Northeast Arkansas appear to be best areas of terrain/timeframe and parameters all phasing together for a good chase environment. May need to deal with a few trees, but oh well.

...Alex Lamers...
 
I've been wasting a lot of money on crap alreayd this month...so, really Friday depends on distance. Im not leaving the state of Illinois, unless it's to cross into Indiana or something. But for the moment, I dont have the time to go to Arkansas, since I wont be leaving Champaign until after 2PM...and dont really have money to be spending like mad, and would rather save it for May. But..we'll see. If southern Illinois gets in on the fun, I'm game. Suppose I should just check out the latest models...
 
Latest NAM has slowed the system down a bit, and I'm still keeping our earlier target of NE AR, as it looks pretty favorable in NE AR (along with W KY/W TN). I'll probably make a forecast discussion tomorrow before I leave GRR (for AR)...
 
Native Memphian here folks....

for those who may be in and around the Memphis area on Friday for the possible upcoming event, here are some things to consider...

I-55 b/w the bootheel of MO and Memphis is pretty good chase country..also, if you have to venture into NW MS, higway 61 south will run you into the delta of MS which is awesome chase country.

Also, if you make it to Memphis, I-40E on the TN side of the bridge is a nightmare due to construction. So I would try to avoid that.

Also, this weekend is the first weekend of Memphis in May and it will be pretty busy downtown, so avoid downtown Memphis at all cost.

anyone else have questions, feel free to hit me up.
 
One other thing that might be good to mention now are radio stations in the Little Rock, Jonesboro and Memphis areas that offer good weather coverage. Anyone care to list which ones are best for this area?
 
I'm still a bit dazed and confused to why the SPC hasn't thrown a MDT for this event yet, but I'm sure they will on the 1730. I'm leaving for Jonesboro in about a half hour... And by the way it looks right now, then I'm guessing that FRI should be the 2nd HIGH risk day of the season...
 
Yeah, me too. Not sure why they're still sticking to the Slight Risk, but I notice they do mention concern over things going linear quite quickly. Nevertheless, even "if" it's only linear stuff, the overall coverage and intensity surely would warrant a MOD and I'm like you Nick, if this verifies, I believe it will be a Red day.

I think they're just being cautious right now as not to "overstate" as in some of the earlier outlooks presented this year that just quite didn't verify as thought.

I'd look for a MOD either on the 12:30 today, or at least a MOD tomorrow morning if not HIGH by tomorrow at 11:30.

Boy, I'm still torn on what to do. If it were closer, it's a "no brainer." However, the travel distance and still uncertainties of the convection mode leaves me scratching my head.

I've found several folks interested in partnering up on this, so that's (gas money) really not an issue... and it sure would be fun to chase back close to home and see the relatives, but having grown up in that area (Paducah, KY), I am just so skeptical on things going quickly into a line vs. staying discrete.

I'm sure others share my concerns with it being such a long-distance drive and unfamliar terrain to a lot of chasers.
 
I haven't kept tabs on the system, but quick glance at NAM from last night (to me) shows a squall of death. Winds are nearly unidirectional from SFC-300mb, and sfc winds are far from being backed. Directional shear sucks.

Best play would probably be along the warm front, but then you have the grunge/precip to worry about throughout the period.

Aaron
 
Originally posted by Billy Griffin

I'm sure others share my concerns with it being such a long-distance drive and unfamliar terrain to a lot of chasers.

Ya, I certainly would be out there if it was not such a long drive for me and gas was not so expensive right now. I am still debating whether I want to go or not. I am just a little concerned about the precip the models have breaking out at 06z east of the low and then by 12z along the entirety of the warm front. It seems as though the convective mode would be linear with precip like that or a "grunge fest". I hope the next model output shows a better cap in place in the morning and reduces precip coverage. I will be making my mind up on the output of the 12z eta and the next day 2 SPC outlook.
 
That's what I'm afraid of !! Having spent 21 years there growing up, I know time after time, it just seems like "squall lines" are par for the course in that area. For some reason, discrete cells are difficult to come by, at best! Not to say this won't be the day, it could happen, but I've seen the squall lines rule for so many years, all the time when conditions are favorable for big-time tornado outbreaks.

And you know, within that line, there'll likely be tornadoes, but it's so frustrating trying to chase in that stuff. There's no definition to anything, most of the time you're dealing with tons of heavy rain, it's like trying to find a tornado out of a hurricane !!! :shock:

Everything is in place, no doubt... instability, moisture, shear (although what type remains to be seen) - and don't forget, will there be any kind of cap to hold down initiation to a few cells at first, or will this thing erupt all at once around 2pm?
 
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