04/29/05: TALK: OK/MO/AR/IL/KY/TN

I'm getting ready for Friday to potentially become a large event, possibley a outbreak across AR/MO. A few NWS offices are already taking notice of the major changes, and Jackson hits the potential pretty good....

Originally posted by Jackson NWS HWO+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jackson NWS HWO)</div>

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No such thing as a target when a system is still 3 days out, but I'd pick Eastern AR, or maybe north towards Southeast MO...

Too early for me to put any real forecast in the FCST thread, but the current NAM would produce quite a bit of severe weather, with a high probability of tornadoes. We will see if this pattern holds...
The NAM is forecasting the spring's most intense 500 mb jet, extending 60 to 70 kts from LA, AR, MO, KY, TN to IL with 85 to 90 kt jet core lagging in central TX. This will create some very favorable kinematics for storm development, but not so much in the means of "storm chase-ability". Long-track tornadoes are more favorable in these set-ups, largely because of the increased distance traveled by the storm during the same time duration.

A tornado on the ground for 15 minutes moving at 60 knots will travel 17.3 miles as opposed to one moving 20 knots that will only cover 5.8 miles.

Definitely an interesting set-up with this persistent upper-level low setting up in Manitoba over the next day or two. Action won't be centered on the Southern Plains for the foreseeable future.
Originally posted by Michael Gribble
Storm motion could be a serious problem with this setup.

Agreed. This setup looks more like an "intercept" type of event, but if I was down in the area, I sure wouldn't miss it! Latest 18Z NAM looks like it's similar to the 12Z, but it's really the 00Z and 12Z runs that dictate any significant trends. NAM also shows good moisture return from the Gulf... We shall see...
Latest 18Z NAM Run shows the Low has deepened again at 0Z Saturday, down to 992mb, centered in extreme southern Illinois, near Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Combined with fast storm motion speeds, this thing is gonna be a mover!
I just glanced over the NAM for Friday and it looks like storms will form East of the surface low and along the warm front. Storm relative helicity will be unreal along the warm front. With the storms moving that fast, if I decided to go I would setup in southern Illinois/SE Miss. and try to catch them as they tracked along the warm front. I don't know if I am willing to drive that far for storms moving that fast though.
GFS is trending back towards a previous run in the latest 18Z run for 0Z Saturday. The GFS is having a hard time gripping this system as it had bounced the system around from being centered in Oklahoma at 0Z Saturday, to have it centered at the Mississippi River at 0Z Saturday. Now, it's about midway from the two.

Looks like we just gotta wait until Thursday before the models can agree on this one.
Posting here again, as this isn't really a forecast... The past three runs of the NAM have pushed the SFC low further southeast each run... This latest 0Z run is roughly ~170KM further southeast than the 12Z run. GFS also trending further south and east, and deeper than the previous 18Z run...If this trend continues, the threat for severe weather will likely be too far south and east into non-chaseable terrain. Given that this system is embedded within the northern stream trough, it will likely make a sharp hook to the northeast, shooting it up into the upper Ohio valley.

Not that this belongs in the Target Area, but given the strength of the system, and the trend in the models, it looks like mother nature could play another cruel joke on the Great Lakes area with a bit of snow - If only we could push this beast westward, and advect some mid 60's td's in, we would have a Palm Sunday goin on!! :roll: :lol:
It looks like there might be a problem with morning precipitation with this system. At 12Z there is widespread precipitation. It looks like rain along the front could be fueled all morning by the low level jet. Someone else who knows a little more might want to comment on this.
Well, I subscribe to a bunch of forecasts. Checking this morning's, it seems nearly all of them are similar, in thinking this is going to be a big deal.

Larry Cosgrove says this system is very similar to the one that affected much of TN on April 16, 1998 (the Nashville F3 day and the F5 farther S). He also seems to think Saturday will be potent as well across the SERN US. He says it may be the most potent threat of the year so far.

Andrew Revering's forecast is also calling for significant severe weather. His full forecast is in the fcst thread.

I have yet to see Robert Lattery's forecast. But I'm sure it will be similar when it arrives.

The one constant with this one is that nearly everyone agrees it will be a big severe weather producer. Apparently, so does the SPC. They have a 25% hatched area on their day 3 with the mention of long track tornadoes possible.

This keeps getting more interesting. I certainly feel Friday may be a pretty big deal if things continue to look the way they look now. Right now, ERN AR appears to be the bullseye, at least in my opinion. Little Rock to Memphis better be on high alert Friday, as well as surrounding areas. It's looking like this will at the very least be a solid moderate type day, maybe more.
I think the best compromise between terrain and model tendencies will be the bootheel of MO. I have traversed down in the area there and it is FLAT. It will be interesting to see if this system slows down bringing the action further west. Though I doubt it could bring storm initiation further east than Little Rock, but I will keep my fingers crossed.
I'm on the road, right now, and will be in Arkansas probably by tomorrow. From what I glanced at, it's looking pretty intresting... and Day3 mentions "significant severe weather event" along with "long track tornadoes"...
12Z NAM and 6Z GFS are showing similar tracks for the storm system at 0Z Saturday. At 0Z Saturday, the 12Z NAM is showing a southerly and easterly track and positions the fast moving system near Paducah, KY. But the 6Z GFS is showing the upper level storm system at centered near Poplar Bluff, MO at 0Z Saturday. Overall, for chasing purposes, I prefer the slower GFS model as extreme SE Missouri is pristine chasing area as most of the area is flat.
Me and Jeff, my nephew and chase partner, plan to leave NC Thursday, 4/28 around noon and begin the 14 hour drive to Fridays target area, and get a motel for Thursday night somewhere between Memphis and Little Rock on I-40. If anyone will be chasing in the area and wants to meet up Friday morning/midday before the storms fire to share forecasts or compare notes or whatever message me and we can exchange cell #'s etc.
Chase Chance as of 1000AM CDT: 50%
I plan on leaving at 8PM from Kansas City on Thursday to head to my proposed target area of either:

Hayti, MO
Poplar Bluff, MO
Jonesboro, AR

I will be on the northern storms of this system, hopefully close to the upper level Low. I plan to stay in the Mississippi River valley, as I am not planning to chase ANYTHING in the Ozark Mountains.

Just to remind everybody who will chase storms across the MS River:
There are only 5 Mississippi River crossings between Memphis and Cairo, IL. 2 of those crossings are at Cairo (NE of Poplar Bluff) and 2 are at Memphis. The only one that is between the two is at Interstate 155, SE of Hayti. There is at least 70-100 miles between river crossings, plan accordingly!
I am about 50% sure as well, may leave during the early morning on fri, or late eve on thurs. I want to see the relative timing and maybee figure out if I can stay in st. louis thurs night..... I hate to drive east, but if the second comng of Christ is about to unfold I want to be there!!!!! :shock:

If I go, would anybody want to rondeveux somewhere near Se mo?
For anyone interested.

If anyone is interested, I live in Newport, AR about 80 miles north east of Little Rock or about 30 miles WSW of Jonesboro.

One thing to think about other than the Mississippi River crossings is the White River Crossings, if you start out around Little Rock you can cross the White River on I40 and a couple of other places upstream.

I would suggest starting either here in Newport or Jonesboro as you wouldn't have to worry about the White River at all. The area is nearly all flat farm land with great long distance views. Starting around this area will give you a choice, depending on the storm motion, of heading to Memphis, nearly due east of Newport or southeast of Jonesboro, or heading north east to Hayti, MO to cross the Mississippi.

You can PM me and maybe I can be of some help.

Kelley Austin
This is sooooooooo tempting for me to take Friday off and make the drive over to eastern Arkansas. A lot of the terrain over there is quite good, mostly flat and some wide open spaces. SE Missouri is also very good for chasing, and even some of the roads have square mile section roads, almost (but not quite) like our "section lines" here in OK.

I think it would be about a five hour drive from Norman to Little Rock, so a tank of gas should get me there. A tank driving around chasing, if it verifies, and another tank for the drive back.

I have a good friend there in Newport, AR (Kelley) who chased with me last year, so perhaps it's his turn :wink: to host me on a chase day !! :lol:

Good luck to all those who do venture over there. It just might set up where the terrain isn't too bad and there'll be some good roads !! :wink:

It always concerns me when these big outbreaks are called for in populated areas, as obviously the further east you go, the more populated areas and a lot of folks in those parts of the country just don't take the severe weather emphasis very serious. :roll:

I may wait for the Day 2 tomorrow, then decide if I'm going to take the day off and gamble the gas money for the drive over there. As Jeff said in an earlier statement, it sure seems like the moisture has been "zapped" out of the southern plains (so far) this year.
I had put in for a vacation day for Friday when things looked to be more of an OK/TX chase. So if I get my accounting test out of the way I very well may head out from OKC Thursday night. I am going to wait until I am sure of storm mode and chase partner situation before I make a final decision though. I do not want to drive 1000+ mile round trip to see a squall line or be behind what seems to become a very fast moving supercell. It would be my first chase in AR or MO so I am very unfamiliar with the terrain so that is another drawback for me also.

As was mentioned about the scarcity of bridges across the Mississippi River between Memphis and Cairo, also beware, if the chase takes you further north, of the difficulty of traversing the river from Cairo up to St. Louis. I have travelled this area a few times recently, and it really can be a devil's choice for someone with an E/W objective. There's basically Cairo and Cape Girardeau, and the Cape Girardeau crossing - if going from MO into IL - is frustrating because you run into a natl. forest, and must either go 19m SSE or 12 M north before resuming an eastward direction. As for any crossing N of Cape Girardeau, you must go about 50m up to Chester, IL and beyond that all the way up to St. Lous. If your target is more oriented to southern IL than MO, I would set up in the relatively open spaces around Mt. Vernon with a pretty good road grid in the surrounding area.