04/25/05: TALK: TX/OK

Boy was I wrong. :oops: Well, they're still keeping it slight, and I guess I tend to agree due to the overall coverage, but I still think there's a distinct possibility for something to happen within the area of some significant reports.

Guess now we'll just have to wait and see.
 
Whoopey! DP has now hit 50 degrees here in Norman.
Call me stupid for saying this, but I'll go out on a limb here and say that I just have this funny feeling that something could happen as far north as south-central Oklahoma this afternoon or evening.

I'm curious to know if any boundaries will be in place out of all this convection ongoing and moving off to the east, and with the beautiful sunshine now over Norman and to the south - I just feel funny about southern Oklahoma.

I'm going to say Lawton ~ Duncan ~ Ardmore ~ Wichita Falls ~ Decatur ~ Durant area ???

Any thoughts? I wonder if any enhancement may occur as the upper low approaches and the winds start to back over southern Oklahoma?
 
Originally posted by Billy Griffin
I wonder if any enhancement may occur as the upper low approaches and the winds start to back over southern Oklahoma?

That's what my whole forecast is riding on. Latest RUC run (9hr) shows even more backed winds just north of the Red River by 0Z, in response to that surface low riding the river valley in SW OK by that time frame. Last two RUC runs have been consistently pointing to S OK/N Tx with UVVs/precip/windfields/helicity/and dewpoint bullseyes all stamped across the region. Right now 'm trying to decide whether to play the better helicity north o the River by 0Z along the boundary east of the low, or dive down into TX some 30-40 miles and try to tap into a little bit more instability. If the Td difference between the two areas isn't substantial within an hour or two, I'm opting for the helicity. I just can't ignore those backed winds along the river by 7pm.
 
I'm leaving for Ardmore here in a bit... Tds are rising rapidly (not saying too much, considerably they were January-like earlier today), and latest SWODY1 at 1630z sounds better in terms of tornado potential. Will either play ADM area or dive south to Gainesville, since those are the only good places near the Red River that have good E/W road options. Hope to see some of ya'll out there!
 
Jeff we're right behind you, should be in route within 15 minutes. Good luck to everyone out there.
 
Definitely agreeing with you Shane on the backed flow near the RR...last 3 hour Mesonet time series shows shift of about 15-20 degrees in the Durant region and S-ward. We are starting to see significant clearing and insolation west of the I-35 corridor so the advancing dryline can have some instability to work with, but my main concern is the moisture depth as the 925/850 composites appear to limit it in the S. OK region. Nonetheless, good luck to all!
 
Well, here's my plan, for what it's worth... I think I'll actually head to Duncan leaving Norman around 3"ish". Work commitments keep me here until then, otherwise I'd be bookin' it down south already, but I think that should still be more than enough time to get into place.

Depending on how things set up, either head south on 81 towards Duncan or south on 35 to Ardmore and then await initiation. I can always "bounce" a little south if need be, but I (gas limitations) cannot afford to drive to Waco.

Therefore, and in keeping my eye on those backing winds, I think I'll stick NORTH of the Red River and play the Helicity in southern Oklahoma. I just have a good feeling that we've had, and will continue, abundant sunshine and with perhaps boundaries left over from earlier stuff, plus the enhancement of the surface low approaching and winds backing out of the southeast, any storms that do go up perhaps will have the best low-level rotation potential on the boundary north of the Red River, or at least riding that boundary in close proximity to the Red River.

Good luck for those of you heading south today, but as for me, I think I'll stick to the better helicity and shear vs. marginally better instability. I still think there'll be an upgrade to MOD over SC Oklahoma when we're all said and done. With all this sun, our CAPES should be respectable, and again, I'm not going to get burned and ignore that helicity any more.

Yes, we're "storm" chasers, but I've seen plenty of storms in my day, and if I'm going out, at least I'm going to play it strategically. I'm one of those who do not feel it is improper to recoup your costs if you can sell your footage to the media, and I'll admit that (hey, at least I'm honest :wink: ) and since I work for KOCO-5 I'll need to stay in Oklahoma anyway for coverage of anything that does happen to form, unless it's just a wedgefest down south.

Anyway, long post for such a short statement. :roll:
South-Central Oklahoma it is.
 
Wish I could be there, instead stuck up here in the cold NWLY flow. Chase vacation has already started but stuck to a commitment. Got both computers fired up on the region and im intensely monitoring. Since, I'll be watching this all day would be avaliable if anyone needed a nowcaster or SMS updates on the phone. I know my cell phone provider has no digital signal in most of Oklahoma and Texas but can get SMS about anywhere.

Drop me a line, Good Luck!
Scott Olson
[email protected]
 
Gotta love those dewpoints already jumpin' into the 55 degree range over south-central Oklahoma! Not tropical, but much better than, as Jeff said, the January-like airmass we had this morning.

Thanks to the greenery this time of year, surface DPs can really jump up fast !! This day should be interesting. Still feels like one of those "surprise" days that some just blow off. Don't even want to mention May 3rd, 1999... as things were much different then, but this does bring back memories. Funny how that day started off so "blah" as far as the outlook goes. Things sure changed in a hurry. Not saying we'll see anything close to that type of outbreak today, but it sure could sneak up and surprise a few with a couple of nice cells. You've got to wonder how much more those DPs will keep climbing. We're already at 55, and still going! Once again, reminds me of one of those days where the media just doesn't catch on right away. I think we'll have fun today!

Unfortunately, still a little over two hours 'til I can depart Norman for (my current target) Duncan, OK.

Good luck to all!
 
MD issued for central OK, WW may be needed soon. Looks like the DP's are starting to climb into the mid to upper 50's in southern Oklahoma. Best area ATTM looks to be east of I-35, probably near Ardmore/Durant. Good SE flow, juice, and 45-50 kt deep shear vectors oriented normal to the dryline. I will prpbably be ducking out a bit early and heading in that direction soon.
 
Latest data indicates storms will probably start firing at 21z on a Paris-Dallas-Waco line.By 23z storms should fire straight through central OK. If I were there I would stay just slightly west of Dallas. Now, if we can bring these LCL's down some then it will really be a show.

EDIT UPDATE: Storms firing from a Weatherville To Stephenville line are indicated to rapidly intensify. As they approach Fort Worth.

2:40- Supercell thunderstorm has formed 5sw of Weatherford.


-Scott.
 
Storms are rapidly intensifying in Parker/Erath counties in TX, with rotation already present on the Parker storm (along with >0.75" hail)...
 
OK, for anyone out there in the field who may be reading. Perhaps this might help with anticipation of convective mode:

Current analysis of 9-11km storm-relative winds:

1. <40kt north of a line from Lawton to Muskogee, indicative of HP.

2. >40kt<60kt north of a line from Abiline, through metroplex, to Paris and south of line (1.) above, indicative of Classic.

3. >60 kt, indicative of LP, south of line (2.)

Good luck to all chasing today!
 
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