04/25/05: TALK: TX/OK

[nickgrillo]

Here's a TALK thread for today....

Day 1 has just been issued, and I'm rather surprised at it... I think it's still a bit too far east. My target would still be Cameron, TX - which is south of FTW...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
Here's a TALK thread for today....

Day 1 has just been issued, and I'm rather surprised at it... I think it's still a bit too far east. My target would still be Cameron, TX - which is south of FTW...

Really? The new day 1 looks to highlight the same area you highlighted on your last outlook. Looks like you matched up nicely with them...They simply covered a larger area, stretching to the TX/LA border.

 

[nickgrillo]

I don't know what the heck I was thinking, LOL, because they are pretty much agreeing with my last outlook... thou mine is a bit further westward for the tornado risk...

I need a bit more sleep....

 

[Justin Walker]

Well...a small clearing over sw ok and nc tx. If this can last, then this maybe the place. Everywhere else looks socked in right now

 

[Billy Griffin]

very nice clearing here in Norman now, and all along the Red River area from about Lawton ~ west.

I'm still a little concerned with moisture, although I see DPs now up to almost 50 here in Norman !!! Perhaps this may be a surprise event that unfolds right before our eyes today!

Could be a Red River Shootout of the weather kind !!! LOL

 

[Chris Allington]

Im begining to wonder as well...but ill only be radar chasing as i live in NE. LOL. DP's almost to 50 in most areas just behind the precip/clouds in OK/TX... good luck to everyone

 

[Billy Griffin]

My plans, for now at least, are to obviously wait until the 11:30 and then plan my track from there. I have a weird feeling that things could get rather nasty in a hurry around here and points along the RR (Red River) if this clearing maintains and DPs continue to rise, which I believe they will.

No expert, by no means, but even being an amateur chaser, any time we can get abundant sunshine and moisture (even if it is whimpy) it's a rare thing in itself... could be some nice discrete cells and it being the time of year it is, who knows what will happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upgrade to MOD risk, although they may hold reservations on that due to the limited moisture return.

Boy, sure makes you think "what if" if the dewpoints were mid-60's today and our temps were in the mid 80s !!! :shock:

Guess we'll see if, just this once, Mother Nature will be kind to us and give us a sneak mini-outbreak over the Red River valley into NC Texas.

 

[Chris Allington]

I think that the risk is there but the moisture just wont make it high enough to sustain a high tornado risk...still wouldnt be suprised to see a couple of tornado reports out of this if clearing/surface heating/ moisture return can continue but high LCL hights due to limited mositure will inhibit some tor abilities. I dont think that the SPC will go with a MOD today though...

 

[Justin Walker]

I'm in agreement with you guys...i think we will see a moderate for today. With this clearing, i do think there will be a couple of naders. The what ifs are definatly running through my head...

 

[Jason Montano]

If I were out chasing today I would setup between Ardmore and DFW along I35. The 12z RUC has CAPE values between 1500 and 1800 J/kg and helecity reaching upwards of 250 by 0z along I35.

When that clearing reaches I35 probably in the next two or three hours there should be some good heating and possibly some good towers going up. Good luck to all chasing.

 

[Billy Griffin]

I say upgrade to MOD risk. Let's have fun with this for the next hour... since this is the "talk" thread and not the forecast discussion thread.

Good call on the "talk" Nick !! :wink:

Here's the latest from the BPC... "Billy Prediction Center"... upgrade to MOD risk, tornado area stays only 15% however, and that area will be confined to an area (circle) from Wichita Falls, to south of Norman, OK, to include most of SE Oklahoma, NE Texas, and then rounding back up around Waco~Austin back to Wichita Falls.

Again, this is just for fun, so let's not take these forecasts personal... :lol: Just having fun before the 11:30 validates.

 

[Chris Allington]

haha...pretty soon someone will say suddenly DP's rose to 65 and Temps to 83 and everything is off the charts for supercells. I'd say a high risk is warrented...

J/k...

well have to see if moisture can continue to advect northward. im really boarderline as to wether or not a MOD will be issued...and if it is i think it will be mainly because of large hail...

im by no means an expert though...

 

[Billy Griffin]

yeah, "if" it does go MOD, it'll be because of the instability and "hail" likelihood with these cells. Yeah, I'm borderline too.

Arghhh.... where are these clouds coming from now here in Norman??? :x

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm not too sure about tornado potential/MDT risk... LCL's are pretty high across the region, thus, the tornado threat shouldn't be too high...

 

[Shane Adams]

OM now showing a nice little group of 50-51 Tds creeping up north of the River. A glance at SPC's Hourly Mesoscale page also pinpoints a small bullseye of moisture convergence just NW of these rising Tds. It looks to be at least a start at some recovery. I've been watching Tds since 8am and given the current rate, I think we may have enough time to realize low-50s (if not mid) through the RR valley area. Also quickly, my last check of UCAR's surface obs showed a decent flow OFF THE GULF now throughout much of EC Texas and up into the RR valley region. Perhaps the gate (albeit a shallow one) is open.


As far as SPC, I think they'll stay slight based solely on coverage; I think significant severe weather is possible, but not over a very large area. My guess is they'll keep the slight, and maybe push the 5% tor prob a bit west to include the area from SPS/ADM.