04/25/05: TALK: TX/OK

Here's a TALK thread for today....

Day 1 has just been issued, and I'm rather surprised at it... I think it's still a bit too far east. My target would still be Cameron, TX - which is south of FTW...
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
Here's a TALK thread for today....

Day 1 has just been issued, and I'm rather surprised at it... I think it's still a bit too far east. My target would still be Cameron, TX - which is south of FTW...

Really? The new day 1 looks to highlight the same area you highlighted on your last outlook. Looks like you matched up nicely with them...They simply covered a larger area, stretching to the TX/LA border.
 
I don't know what the heck I was thinking, LOL, because they are pretty much agreeing with my last outlook... thou mine is a bit further westward for the tornado risk...

I need a bit more sleep.... :oops:
 
Well...a small clearing over sw ok and nc tx. If this can last, then this maybe the place. Everywhere else looks socked in right now
 
very nice clearing here in Norman now, and all along the Red River area from about Lawton ~ west.

I'm still a little concerned with moisture, although I see DPs now up to almost 50 here in Norman !!! Perhaps this may be a surprise event that unfolds right before our eyes today!

Could be a Red River Shootout of the weather kind !!! LOL
 
Im begining to wonder as well...but ill only be radar chasing as i live in NE. LOL. DP's almost to 50 in most areas just behind the precip/clouds in OK/TX... good luck to everyone
 
My plans, for now at least, are to obviously wait until the 11:30 and then plan my track from there. I have a weird feeling that things could get rather nasty in a hurry around here and points along the RR (Red River) if this clearing maintains and DPs continue to rise, which I believe they will.

No expert, by no means, but even being an amateur chaser, any time we can get abundant sunshine and moisture (even if it is whimpy) it's a rare thing in itself... could be some nice discrete cells and it being the time of year it is, who knows what will happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was an upgrade to MOD risk, although they may hold reservations on that due to the limited moisture return.

Boy, sure makes you think "what if" if the dewpoints were mid-60's today and our temps were in the mid 80s !!! :shock:

Guess we'll see if, just this once, Mother Nature will be kind to us and give us a sneak mini-outbreak over the Red River valley into NC Texas.
 
I think that the risk is there but the moisture just wont make it high enough to sustain a high tornado risk...still wouldnt be suprised to see a couple of tornado reports out of this if clearing/surface heating/ moisture return can continue but high LCL hights due to limited mositure will inhibit some tor abilities. I dont think that the SPC will go with a MOD today though...
 
I'm in agreement with you guys...i think we will see a moderate for today. With this clearing, i do think there will be a couple of naders. The what ifs are definatly running through my head...
 
If I were out chasing today I would setup between Ardmore and DFW along I35. The 12z RUC has CAPE values between 1500 and 1800 J/kg and helecity reaching upwards of 250 by 0z along I35.

When that clearing reaches I35 probably in the next two or three hours there should be some good heating and possibly some good towers going up. Good luck to all chasing.
 
I say upgrade to MOD risk. Let's have fun with this for the next hour... since this is the "talk" thread and not the forecast discussion thread.

Good call on the "talk" Nick !! :wink:

Here's the latest from the BPC... "Billy Prediction Center"... upgrade to MOD risk, tornado area stays only 15% however, and that area will be confined to an area (circle) from Wichita Falls, to south of Norman, OK, to include most of SE Oklahoma, NE Texas, and then rounding back up around Waco~Austin back to Wichita Falls.

Again, this is just for fun, so let's not take these forecasts personal... :lol: Just having fun before the 11:30 validates.
 
haha...pretty soon someone will say suddenly DP's rose to 65 and Temps to 83 and everything is off the charts for supercells. I'd say a high risk is warrented...

J/k...

well have to see if moisture can continue to advect northward. im really boarderline as to wether or not a MOD will be issued...and if it is i think it will be mainly because of large hail...

im by no means an expert though...
 
yeah, "if" it does go MOD, it'll be because of the instability and "hail" likelihood with these cells. Yeah, I'm borderline too.

Arghhh.... where are these clouds coming from now here in Norman??? :x
 
I'm not too sure about tornado potential/MDT risk... LCL's are pretty high across the region, thus, the tornado threat shouldn't be too high...
 
OM now showing a nice little group of 50-51 Tds creeping up north of the River. A glance at SPC's Hourly Mesoscale page also pinpoints a small bullseye of moisture convergence just NW of these rising Tds. It looks to be at least a start at some recovery. I've been watching Tds since 8am and given the current rate, I think we may have enough time to realize low-50s (if not mid) through the RR valley area. Also quickly, my last check of UCAR's surface obs showed a decent flow OFF THE GULF now throughout much of EC Texas and up into the RR valley region. Perhaps the gate (albeit a shallow one) is open.


As far as SPC, I think they'll stay slight based solely on coverage; I think significant severe weather is possible, but not over a very large area. My guess is they'll keep the slight, and maybe push the 5% tor prob a bit west to include the area from SPS/ADM.
 
Boy was I wrong. :oops: Well, they're still keeping it slight, and I guess I tend to agree due to the overall coverage, but I still think there's a distinct possibility for something to happen within the area of some significant reports.

Guess now we'll just have to wait and see.
 
Whoopey! DP has now hit 50 degrees here in Norman.
Call me stupid for saying this, but I'll go out on a limb here and say that I just have this funny feeling that something could happen as far north as south-central Oklahoma this afternoon or evening.

I'm curious to know if any boundaries will be in place out of all this convection ongoing and moving off to the east, and with the beautiful sunshine now over Norman and to the south - I just feel funny about southern Oklahoma.

I'm going to say Lawton ~ Duncan ~ Ardmore ~ Wichita Falls ~ Decatur ~ Durant area ???

Any thoughts? I wonder if any enhancement may occur as the upper low approaches and the winds start to back over southern Oklahoma?
 
Originally posted by Billy Griffin
I wonder if any enhancement may occur as the upper low approaches and the winds start to back over southern Oklahoma?

That's what my whole forecast is riding on. Latest RUC run (9hr) shows even more backed winds just north of the Red River by 0Z, in response to that surface low riding the river valley in SW OK by that time frame. Last two RUC runs have been consistently pointing to S OK/N Tx with UVVs/precip/windfields/helicity/and dewpoint bullseyes all stamped across the region. Right now 'm trying to decide whether to play the better helicity north o the River by 0Z along the boundary east of the low, or dive down into TX some 30-40 miles and try to tap into a little bit more instability. If the Td difference between the two areas isn't substantial within an hour or two, I'm opting for the helicity. I just can't ignore those backed winds along the river by 7pm.
 
I'm leaving for Ardmore here in a bit... Tds are rising rapidly (not saying too much, considerably they were January-like earlier today), and latest SWODY1 at 1630z sounds better in terms of tornado potential. Will either play ADM area or dive south to Gainesville, since those are the only good places near the Red River that have good E/W road options. Hope to see some of ya'll out there!
 
Jeff we're right behind you, should be in route within 15 minutes. Good luck to everyone out there.
 
Definitely agreeing with you Shane on the backed flow near the RR...last 3 hour Mesonet time series shows shift of about 15-20 degrees in the Durant region and S-ward. We are starting to see significant clearing and insolation west of the I-35 corridor so the advancing dryline can have some instability to work with, but my main concern is the moisture depth as the 925/850 composites appear to limit it in the S. OK region. Nonetheless, good luck to all!
 
Well, here's my plan, for what it's worth... I think I'll actually head to Duncan leaving Norman around 3"ish". Work commitments keep me here until then, otherwise I'd be bookin' it down south already, but I think that should still be more than enough time to get into place.

Depending on how things set up, either head south on 81 towards Duncan or south on 35 to Ardmore and then await initiation. I can always "bounce" a little south if need be, but I (gas limitations) cannot afford to drive to Waco.

Therefore, and in keeping my eye on those backing winds, I think I'll stick NORTH of the Red River and play the Helicity in southern Oklahoma. I just have a good feeling that we've had, and will continue, abundant sunshine and with perhaps boundaries left over from earlier stuff, plus the enhancement of the surface low approaching and winds backing out of the southeast, any storms that do go up perhaps will have the best low-level rotation potential on the boundary north of the Red River, or at least riding that boundary in close proximity to the Red River.

Good luck for those of you heading south today, but as for me, I think I'll stick to the better helicity and shear vs. marginally better instability. I still think there'll be an upgrade to MOD over SC Oklahoma when we're all said and done. With all this sun, our CAPES should be respectable, and again, I'm not going to get burned and ignore that helicity any more.

Yes, we're "storm" chasers, but I've seen plenty of storms in my day, and if I'm going out, at least I'm going to play it strategically. I'm one of those who do not feel it is improper to recoup your costs if you can sell your footage to the media, and I'll admit that (hey, at least I'm honest :wink: ) and since I work for KOCO-5 I'll need to stay in Oklahoma anyway for coverage of anything that does happen to form, unless it's just a wedgefest down south.

Anyway, long post for such a short statement. :roll:
South-Central Oklahoma it is.
 
Wish I could be there, instead stuck up here in the cold NWLY flow. Chase vacation has already started but stuck to a commitment. Got both computers fired up on the region and im intensely monitoring. Since, I'll be watching this all day would be avaliable if anyone needed a nowcaster or SMS updates on the phone. I know my cell phone provider has no digital signal in most of Oklahoma and Texas but can get SMS about anywhere.

Drop me a line, Good Luck!
Scott Olson
[email protected]
 
Gotta love those dewpoints already jumpin' into the 55 degree range over south-central Oklahoma! Not tropical, but much better than, as Jeff said, the January-like airmass we had this morning.

Thanks to the greenery this time of year, surface DPs can really jump up fast !! This day should be interesting. Still feels like one of those "surprise" days that some just blow off. Don't even want to mention May 3rd, 1999... as things were much different then, but this does bring back memories. Funny how that day started off so "blah" as far as the outlook goes. Things sure changed in a hurry. Not saying we'll see anything close to that type of outbreak today, but it sure could sneak up and surprise a few with a couple of nice cells. You've got to wonder how much more those DPs will keep climbing. We're already at 55, and still going! Once again, reminds me of one of those days where the media just doesn't catch on right away. I think we'll have fun today!

Unfortunately, still a little over two hours 'til I can depart Norman for (my current target) Duncan, OK.

Good luck to all!
 
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