04/21/05 FCST: Central/Southern Plains


You're absolutely right, Jeff! Perhaps some pre-frontal thing, not sure what's going on with the dewpoints staying up behind the wind shift, but the big thing that concerns me is looking at the animated visible satellite imagery along with noticing that DPs really fall off fast near what must, or appears to be, the cold front now which appears to have already passed Woodward. The winds in Enid are now due west (sucks), and you're right, SRH will be 0% unless something magically happens.

If this trend keeps up, my chase plans will quickly turn into a "virtual" chase targeting Springfield, MO. There's something "funky" appearing on the visible satellite over SC Kansas... sort of a meso-low??? :?

Nevertheless, I am hoping, beggin, praying this thing will slow down or winds will back later this afternoon as the dryline/cold front merge into this juicy air.

My biggest fear, this big wind shift will also allow super-fast mixing out of the DPs and the dryline will become rather diffuse with little or no convergence over Oklahoma.

Anway, enough "guess-casting", I'm no expert, but it sure looks like this thing is hauling a$$ and stealing any hopes I had of something within a tank of gas chase day. For those of you that are off work or enjoying a day of hookie, I'd watch this wind shift and target points east of there... again, SW Missouri ??? The way this thing is moving so fast, NE Oklahoma and SE Kansas may not even get in on the action !!!

I'm curious to know what others' opinions are on this wind shift thing and why dewpoints are remaining in the upper 50s ~ lower 60s even after the significant wind shift to the west/southwest. Perhaps OUN will have a discussion out soon.

Good luck and Be Safe to all chasing today. :wink:
I'm not too experienced myself so I can't allude to why the dewpoints are hanging on behind what appears to be the windshift associated with the dryline - which is at OUN. All I can say is that I'm not exactly surprised about it (see my previous post). Perhaps the models actually had a handle on today in this area a few days ago.....now wouldn't THAT be something??

But yes - if things don't slow down I certainly don't feel too optimistic about chasing MO and AR. That, of course, is IF I could chase at all. I'm sitting here in a virtual prison (AKA work), just having found out that unless I can give like about 10 days of notice, the chances of me getting off for any severe weather event are fairly negligible.


Alas, perhaps there's hope yet ??? :? :shock: :?
Latest OUN discussion mentions they feel the dryline/cold front will "make a significant slow down" as it nears I-35, with storms going up ~ I-35 around 3~4 pmish. That couldn't be the case... nope, I can't get THAT lucky !! :shock:

Perhaps Mother Nature will help us out yet Jeff ??? No mention of the "T" word in OUN's discussion however (correction - one should read the ENTIRE thing. Got ahead of myself) Anyway, on SRH... So... your theory may be right, we may get storms, but with these winds veered the way they are, SRH will be minimal. I don't know, it's anyone's guess for now. I'm tired of typing, as I'm sure you all are tired of my typing as well. :lol: :lol: :wink:

Yup, you're right Karen... sucks to have to make a living. This was actually the ONE dang day that I have a class to teach at 12 and will be done by 1:30... I was just hoping it would be here close to OUN - not in West Tennessee !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Alas, perhaps there's hope yet ??? :? :shock: :?
Latest OUN discussion mentions they feel the dryline/cold front will "make a significant slow down" as it nears I-35, with storms going up ~ I-35 around 3~4 pmish. That couldn't be the case... nope, I can't get THAT lucky !! :shock:


Yup, you're right Karen... sucks to have to make a living. This was actually the ONE dang day that I have a class to teach at 12 and will be done by 1:30... I was just hoping it would be here close to OUN - not in West Tennessee !!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're the lucky one. I'm shackled to the keyboard here until 5.00pm on the dot (I'm on E. Gray St if anyone wants to visit :D.....j/k ). Sh*t I'd do anything to work for myself.....working for people royally sucks. Couple that with the fact that Gene will likely be out chasing today without me......and you can imagine how grotty I feel.

I haven't read OUN's recent Disc. so I suppose I should. I can't wait to see the D1 update, though - I wonder if we could see a removal of the MOD and the 15% tor. Hmmm......

I am not overly optimistic, but I will venture out to around Bartelsville, and maybe N from there. The RUC veers the winds all the way throught OK by 0Z so I will most likely end up in MO. I would rather go up to Kansas City area, but that is too far for me to make it today. I think there will be a few tornadoes up in that region.

Good luck to all who venture out today!
Well I think I need to adjust my TA south from bethany, MO to KANSAS CITY. Think that this area is going to be the bullseye for the bulk of the severe weather. Since it has access to 3 interstates i can quickly change positions later on.

Also, I wouldnt be at all suprised to see SPC upgrade to high risk later in the day, for the same area.
Well, if you look at some of the basic wind surface forecasts between now and 5:00pm, looks like what is going on is the low pressure/wind shift line is tilted from NW to SE, and that is consistent with the surface observations in central OK. For example, surface winds forecast from due S at Tulsa at 11:00am and then actually forecast from SE at 2:00pm while at the same time wind has shifted to WSW at Ponca City while still from due south at Wichita!

Can see why some of you in OKC area may be a little spooked by what you are seeing at the surface now, but in your mind's eye think about positioning NE of your current location, and then looking towards the west. By 5:00pm, may need to be crawling up the KS/MO border.
I don't know what's happening, but in the span of one update, the UCAR surface obs page shows SSW winds all the way into AR/Mo now - there's nothing backed anywehre except near the low in NE/IA. Am I watching the one awesome day we've all been waiting for all week go to crap before my eyes? I don't get it. Like many have already mentioned, moisture is stying put behind the windshift. Regardless, if that's the case, we can kiss our helicity goodbye. I was planning on leaving by 11am, but now I may not for a couple of reasons. (1) Curious to see what SPC will do with the 1630 having glanced this horrible development with surface winds, and (2) I may not have enough time to get to the target if I left now.

I'm gonna be very miffed if I missed a day of work for nothing.....
Well, since we're both working our tail ends off at work :roll: I'll amuse everyone with my prediction... HIGH risk for SW MO, NW AR and maybe even a "slice" of eastern Oklahoma ?? I think, based on surface, upper-air, etc. obs, the real opportunity for high risk will be SW Missouri and NW Arkansas... as the storms go up and then "cluster" or "line" together and haul it on east.

Okay, go ahead, laugh. Again, I said I would amuse you. :wink:
I think they'll keep the tor risk and perhaps do a hatched area near Miami, Joplin, Springfield, Ft. Smith... shoot, maybe even E. Oklahoma?

Actually I do, I do think they will upgrade, so I'll go out on a limb and say upgrade to high risk for those areas.

Yeah, I know, my forecast is so ugly it looks like the part of the Polaroid that you tear off. :lol:

Don't fret Karen, most of the time I'm in your shoes... sitting here at the office watching or reading posts about the wedge 10 miles away !!

Keeping to the subject in this post, I'll say initial target, right here and move east as storms fire, assuming they don't all go up at once or race off at 45mph. And hey, if the do the upgrade, you all owe me a coke!
SW MO it is. I tend to favor the oouthern flank of the front due to the chances of cell becoming more desrete, but time will tell. However, to all going there, be wary of the poor road system, Though 1-44 has a nice east west component. I am stuck in Independence, mo till 7pm, so I may have to scrap this chase if things get going before 5-6pm
Well - you don't see systems looking like this too often. I guess i should start by saying things look better to me this morning than the model forecast suggested they would this morning. That said - picking the best are for tornadic storms today is a challenge. I'll apologize now for the somewhat technical discussion. Let's first run a top down synopsis:

Based on 12Z obs: 250 mb Jet max core over the 4 corners region nosing out into the southern plains - axis along the OK panhandle, strong upper divergence in an arc from roughly AIA to ICT. 500 mb jet max from ABQ to GLD, sliding eastward. Water vapor imagery shows a sharp boundary marking this feature pressing steadily eastward across western KS this morning - and the ascent should reach the moist sector by 1 pm. 700 mb shows a cold front aloft similarly from AIA - GLD - TCC, with main thermal axis from DRT-OKC-SGF. 850 thermal axis MAF-ICT-TOP, with deep moisture present just east/south of this. Surface this morning showing weak low pressure near AVK, surface cold front arcing from TCC-GAG-GBD-HLC-OGA, and an outflow/warm front boundary from LBF-HSI-TOP-SZL. Animation of surface observations shows the weak surface low riding ne along the CF, which is surging se, along with a prefrontal trough pendant from the low past END to HBR as of 15Z. Mid to upper 60 dewpoints were present in parts of eastern OK, embedded in SSW flow, with mid 60 dews just reaching CFY, with mostly low 60 dews across much of KS and MO. surface flow was generally weak across much of eastern KS, and following the general trend across OK of veering with time as the LLJ mixes down.

So, where to target? Earliest surface based convection appears will be across southern NE /n KS where convergence cumulus field is already starting to firm up. As the surface low strengthens later today, expect the wind fields to improve some across southern NE. So, there is a definite target potential in there from say HJH-STJ. Next, is the feature/low across southcentral KS right now - that is also very poorly handled in the models. Extrapolation has this drifting to between HHT and SLN, with very moist conditions to the southeast, and locally backed winds to the east, so if there is adequate convergence to get a storm this might be the big mutha of the day. Just follow the bullseye of moisture convergence.


[edit to fix link above]

Remember to shift it because the data is old.

I'll remind folks this is the FORECAST thread - not the TALK thread. Please remember which types of discussions belong in each.

Target: Vinita, OK

The boundary layer features have unfortunately raced out far ahead of the lagging upper-level flow which makes this a very tricky forecast. There is a large dry line bulge as you have to go to Tulsa and areas north and east to find southerly flow remaining in the state of Oklahoma. If this feature can remain in place until the early afternoon hours without the cold front over taking it, initiation will likely be near the I-44 corridor near Vinita, 50 miles northeast of Tulsa. The bad news is 500 mb flow will be marginal at ~35 knots, but SRH will be extreme ~500 per the 12z RUC. The pre-frontal thick cu field propagating southeast may play havoc with the expected CAPE around initiation time as well.

If this was a college basketball game, I have been chanting "OVER-RATED" on this system all week and my outlook for today is similar. Chasing will be difficult following the cells into the beautiful, but awful chase country of southwest MO. The potential for some cycling walls clouds is there, but as far as significant tornado threat...I'm just not convinced. The updated SPC outlook will definitely have the tornado threat moved further east into MO, but I see no way of upgrading upon the MOD risk. Looking at the long range GFS, there are no significant events foreseeable in the next ten day span, so good luck to everyone that goes out since this could be it for a while. Due to class/soccer commitments I definitely don't plan on heading to MO for this one.

EDIT: Just took a glance at the 12z RUC forecast sounding for 7pm in Springfield, MO and it looks good for a tornado threat. LCL of 423 m, CAPE ~2500, EHI 3.3, 0-1 km shear of 24 kts and storm motion East ~20 knots...concern for those chasing is weak 500 mb flow of 30 kts....HP squall line is inevitable.